SIMPLE! SIMON MAKES IT TWO BANKERS OUT OF TWO FOR DAQMAN: Simonsig (WON 8-15) was Daqman’s only saving grace yesterday but it was a big-hitter as only his second maximum-stakes banker of the year, ironically following on from Chatterbox (WON 5-4), which runs today.
HE’S GOT MASSIVE ’OVERS’ ANTE-POST: Thanks to betting ante-post with BETDAQ, he goes into the second day with big prices in the bag on Buddy Bolero (taken at 10.5), Rule The World (12.5) and, of course, Chatterbox (20.0).
FOCUS ON ANOTHER MULLINS ROMP: After a hat-trick yesterday, Willie Mullins saddles Back In Focus, Pont Alexandre, Boston Bob, Abbey Lane and Kalmann in the first two in the betting in their respective races.
1.30 Cheltenham (National Hunt Chase): Willie Mullins switches Vesper Bell to tomorrow’s Kim Muir and takes Back In Focus away from the RSA to run here. He’s bred for this, by Bob Back out of an Over The River mare.
I pounced on 10.5 the Accordion gelding Buddy Bolero on BETDAQ after a rave notice by Tony McCoy in his Telegraph column (he won on it at Leicester), and he averages 9-2 with bookmakers this morning.
Hawkes Point’s full brother Alfie Sherrin won at the Festival last year, and Tofino Bay has kept his form in top company for three years now.
ANTE-POST: JACKPOT BET (to win 40 points): 4.2pts win BUDDY BOLERO at 10.5. Now 1.8pts win (stakes saver) BACK IN FOCUS
2.05 Cheltenham (Neptune Novices’ Hurdle): When Willie Mullins insisted that Pont Alexandre would be an even better animal on top of the ground, it didn’t stop him beating five winners in the novice hurdle at Leopardstown (soft-heavy) at the end of January.
Ten days or so later, I was impressed with Chatterbox (20.0 on BETDAQ at the time) until, a fortnight afterwards, the runner-up, Lac Fontana, let the form down at Kempton.
That was hard to swallow at the same time that Nicky Henderson was talking up Chatterbox, saying that he might even be good enough for the Supreme. Chatterbox, normally a lay-about at home, had suddenly blossomed.
Meanwhile, looking through the Irish runners (they’ve won three of the five Neptunes), I discover multi-entries for Mouse Morris’s Rule The World but managed to trap 12.5 for this race. Mouse has won it recently with Friday’s Gold Cup horse, First Lieutenant (2011)
So it is that I have amassed around 12 points in ‘overs’ here, as well as five in the first. Wow! Get out the holiday brochures! One of them still has to win, of course, and ante-post betting is only part of the game.
It’s a good position but shall I lay them off? Back Pont Alexandre as a stakes saver? Or, indeed, lay the favourite? Since Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins won ‘everything’ yesterday, I need that saver on Pont Alexandre, which Ruby is saying is a seriously good horse.
ANTE-POST: JACKPOT BETS (to win 50 points): 2.6pts win CHATTERBOX at 20.0, and (to win 30) 2.6pts win RULE THE WORLD at 12.5. Now 3.8pts win (stakes saver) PONT ALEXANDRE
2.40 Cheltenham (RSA Chase): Only Paul Nicholls has won this with a five-year-old (Star De Mohaison 2006) and he seems confident that Unioniste will be in much better shape than when scraping home at Newbury, which kept his rating on 153.
All past winners have been rated between 146 and 155, and only that man Mullins comes close to Unioniste with Terminal (151) and Boston Bob (147), who is long in the tooth for this at eight; nearly all (7-8) have been seven years old.
Since Unioniste has already beaten Hadrian’s Approach in that Newbury race, when seemingly underprepared, and Hadrian is third in the betting, the inference is that the champion stables of England and Ireland have it between them.
BET 5.7pts win UNIONISTE and 4pts win BOSTON BOB (2.40 Cheltenham)
3.20 Cheltenham (Champion Chase) New champions of this race were all rated between 160 and 170, which makes Sprinter Sacre just a tad overqualified off 179! He’ll be the shortest priced horse at Cheltenham since Arkle, and will win barring accident.
Accident would let in Mail De Bievre, who looked a potential flying machine dropped back to today’s trip, and is overpriced at 25.0, a massive 5.32 on the place market. He should give you a great run from the front as a back and lay. Can he last up the hill?
If Sprinter Sacre is a winning banker, and Mail Du Bievre is second, I’ll make almost an even-money return on the race.
BANKER (nap) 20 points win SPRINTER SACRE
PLACE BET: 1pt win and 4pts place MAIL DU BIEVRE (3.20 Cheltenham)
4.00 Cheltenham (Coral Cup) If the favourite Abbey Lane is the Willie Mullins’ four-timer after Back In Focus, Pont Alexandre and, Boston Bob – or if just one or two of those have won – he will be shorter than the 8.6 I saw in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
He’s clearly very versatile, having won over 3m on firm and 2m on heavy but he’s eight now. The age range five to seven (5-y-o best) has won 13 times in 18 years.
Another Irish raider, Bondage, has won and been second at Cheltenham on his last two starts but needs better ground. Just two horses in the 18 years have carried more than 11st 2lb.
And, though the handicap is much shorter these days – with only a stone covering 24 of the runners – Bondage is 18lb higher than for his CD win. Master Of The Sea has also been punished again (up 12lb).
Those who swerve Pendra because he’s raced and won only at the minimum trip should check out his breeding: his sire and grandsire have both got Gold Cup winners. The 9.2 on BETDAQ is tempting despite the size of the field.
He is the only J P McManus runner left from 12 entries (in fact, bought by J P after his last run) and I’d be ultra-keen if he wasn’t a novice with just three starts over hurdles: that’s not the profile of previous winners.
McManus’ arch-rivals Gigginstown have whittled down their huge entry to the grey Un Beau Matin, a stablemate of Bondage, and a hard one for the handicapper to assess, as he’s been kept to conditions races. But where he is, Owega Star should be.
Cash And Go also moves up in trip and has form at Cheltenham. His sire, Sulamani, does far better with Flat horses (St Leger winner Mastery), though half-brother Catch Me was runner-up in the Pertemps Final here over further: 16.0 is tempting.
Alan King was delighted with Meister Eckhart’s first run back. Fifth over 3m in the Albert Bartlett at last year’s meeting, he is by Flemensfirth out of a Buckskin mare, so should be much stronger as a seven-year-old after only six runs under Rules and ready to stay all day. The 17.5 I saw on BETDAQ was much too big.
JACKPOT BETS (to win 30 points): 3.9pts win ABBEY LANE, 3.6pts win PENDRA, 2pts win CASH AND GO, and 1.8pts win MEISTER ECKHART
4.40 Cheltenham (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle): This was one of my stats spots last week. I pointed out that six
of the last eight winners have been rated 124 to 130; six in the same period had had three hurdles runs each, and the last six had all raced within 25 days.
That gives you Ibsen, Knight Of Plesasure, Three Kingdoms and Zamdy Man, all huge offers on BETDAQ from 34.0 to 120.0.
It’s a real pinstickers’ race and you could do worse than one of those.
5.15 Cheltenham (Champion Bumper): At 9.0 the field on BETDAQ this morning, this is another one for the pin, but Willie Mullins gives himself three chances of a six-timer, just in case the first five scored. That’s where I came in. Now back to the form book to focus on tomorrow!
DAQMAN’S BETS SUMMARY
BET: 1.8pts win (stakes saver) BACK IN FOCUS (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET: 3.8pts win (stakes saver) PONT ALEXANDRE (2.05 Cheltenham)
BET 5.7pts win UNIONISTE and 4pts win BOSTON BOB (2.40 Cheltenham)
BANKER (SP nap): 20 points win SPRINTER SACRE and PLACE BET: 1pt win and 4pts place MAIL DU BIEVRE (3.20 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOTS: BET 3.9pts win ABBEY LANE, 3.6pts win PENDRA, 2pts win CASH AND GO, and 1.8pts win MEISTER ECKHART (4.00 Cheltenham)
ANTE-POST: 4.2pts to win 40 BUDDY BOLERO at 10.5 (1.30 Cheltenham) plus 2.6pts to win 50 CHATTERBOX at 20.0, and (to win 30) 2.6pts win RULE THE WORLD (2.05 Cheltenham). So far: Loss 2pts on the RSA.
HORSES TO FOLLOW: Highland Lodge (1.30 Cheltenham), Boston Bob (2.40 Cheltenham) and Sprinter Sacre (3.20 Cheltenham)
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