PERENNIAL POISED AT EPSOM: Daqman takes you through the big races on Derby Trial day at Epsom and bids for a big-handicap double of Great Met and City And Suburban, with Perennial the first leg.
BALLYCASEY THE NAP: But he saves up his nap for Ballycasey, which he reckons a Greek god of a horse. Again he has a special double for the Punchestown meeting.
2.20 Epsom With course form figures of 211, Sacrosanctus represents last year’s winning stable. He hasn’t won over the minimum since he was a juvenile but likes his own way and his bonus high draw (11 of 13) gives him every chance if he’s fit.
He’ll no doubt take Diamond Charlie (from 10) along with him; he’s a CD winner who’s been in hot form on AW for local Epsom trainer Simon Dow.
Lady Gibraltar has been first and third over CD on a sound surface but needs to shed a few pounds, unless she’s improved that much over the winter, and has a low draw.
Having said that, the one stall has had one of the first two finishers for the last three years but Ajjaadd is not a horse to fire up the low draw; race reports show, on separate occasions, ‘jumped right start’ and ‘missed the break.’
Sandfrankskipsgo (in 2) is the dark horse: he was back to form on AW recently, described by Racing Post racereaders as the real deal as a sprinter now.
He wasn’t too bad last season. Despite stumbling and having his saddle slip, he was little more than three lengths off the winner of a very competitive sprint at Epsom in August.
Sandfrankskipsgo and Sacrosanctus have both won on firmish ground, and I shall dutch them at around 7.3 each of two.
2.50 Epsom (Great Met) Novirak is the Epsom horse but has had all his success there at the backend of the season; his targeting the track today still seems significant but James Fanshawe has not been as predictable lately, and his runners in the last fortnight have started between 12-1 and 40-1 as if nothing from the yard is fancied.
Tom Dascombe has had a couple of winners recently but Brockwell is another whose form is July-September
Scatter Dice rolled the dice eight times in Spring and summer last season and was never out of the first three; Mark Johnston is in terrific form and the filly is dropped in grade, which counteracts her rise in the weights.
Gelded now, Perennial was just short of top class in his first and second seasons, placed in a Group 3 at two and sixth in the Queen’s Vase at three. In his favour is that he has won first run back; against is that he has to give weight all round.
Also gelded since last season, when he was sixth in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot, Moldowney, who goes well fresh, has his first start for Luca Cumani, who has had 7-11 in the frame in the last fortnight.
Right Step won the City And Suburban on this card last year and now steps up in trip for this Great Met.
Beyond Conceit has the advantage of a run-back second at Doncaster but has been hard to win with since breaking his maiden on heavy ground. It’s firm today.
With the Charles Hill stable doing well, Perennial (6.6) looks the business against several animals which have ‘another day’ writ large on their prospects. Scatter Dice drifted to 12.0 this morning but could have improved again.
3.20 Epsom (Derby Trial) A few winners of this – Franklins Gardens, Curtain Call, The Glow Worm, Storming Home – stirred the Epsom Derby market but got no nearer than sixth at best on the big day.
I put Hoarding in my early-birds list but John Gosden hasn’t been firing so far and this one has a class-2 penalty.
Mister Impatience cruised clear at a lower level at Doncaster but has always raced on soft ground since his debut, either by coincidence or design.
Maybe he’s got webbed feet but his sire acted on any ground and his dam’s best produce so far liked it firm!
Mirsaale was third last year to recent Craven Stakes runner-up Havana Gold but Ghurair, who beat Havana Gold at Newmarket last October, was a beaten favourite (opposed by me) at the Craven meeting.
And these were some of the lines I used to suggest that Toronado, who won the Craven (Havana Gold second), has not achieved a Guineas-winning rating (see Archive). I’ll pass on this one.
3.55 Epsom (City and Suburban) This used to be as big a race as the Lincoln and got some kudos back when Blythe Knight, the winner of 2004, went on to take the 2006 Lincoln (run at Redcar).
But the biggest City and Sub name of recent years is Duncan (2009), who would later in his career win the Yorkshire Cup and Irish St Leger.
In both cases, Blythe Knight and Duncan, they were four-year-olds just building their game but already capable of humping a big weight, and that happened again in two of the last three years.
Is Validus the one, then? They certainly thought a lot of him last year, hiking him to Group 3, despite winning only a Kempton maiden but he could do no more than hammer that maiden field six lengths.
Despite his then breaking a rib (unusual for a horse), he won first run back in 2012 but has been lightly raced and, with such a delicate one, first time is when to catch them.
Lady Loch has had 13 starts and we saw her win first time, a fortnight ago at Pontefract. But she could still ‘be anything’, deserving of that epithet for a dark horse because she is only just now fulfilling potential which has seen her work with the best at home.
I just worry about the going today; all her success has come with cut in the ground so far. Rhagori’s yard, that of Ralph Beckett, is also going well but not on such a level and Rhagori has to step up in class.
4.55 Punchestown When Ballycasey had to miss the Albert Bartlett with a minor problem, Ruby Walsh switched to Inish Island who was not disgraced to finish third
But there is no doubt as to the apple of Willie Mullins’ eye: he sees this Presenting six-year–old Ballycasey as a star chaser of the future, built like a Greek god, hurdling with fluency and style. Ruby Walsh wisely switches back again.
5.30 Punchestown The form says Sir Des Champs. The drying ground says Sir des Champs. Willie Mullins says Sir des Champs. Don’t let me scupper his chances, as I did poor Rule The World yesterday.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3pts win on each SACROSANCTUS and SANDFRANKSKIPSGO (2.20 Epsom)
BET 3.5pts win PERENNIAL, and 1.8pts win SCATTER DICE (2.50 Epsom)
BET 3.8pts win VALIDUS (3.55 Epsom)
PUNCHESTOWN DOUBLE: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double BALLYCASEY (4.55 nap) and SIR DES CHAMPS (5.30 Punchestown)
CITY AND SUB AND GREAT MET DOUBLE: 2pts win double Perennial (2.50 Epsom) and Validus (3.55 Epsom)
DAQMAN’S TARGET: My target today is simple: to get back in front. Injury and an unnecessary fall blighted yesterday. There’s not much a punter can do about those days, except build in protection policy to preserve his bank. More about that another day.
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