DAQMAN SPURTS TO 38-8 LEAD OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman named three winners and a big-odds place on the first day of Royal Ascot, further increasing his profit margin over Pricewise (now 140 points) as he stretched his lead to 38-8 on winning returns since the start of the Flat season. His results included:
WON 4-1 THOMAS HOBSON
WON 5-2 BARNEY ROY
WON 11-10 RIBCHESTER
3RD 12-1 DEAUVILLE
* Today’s Pricewise challenge: 2.30, 3.05, 5.00 and 5.35.
ODDS-ON CHURCHILL FLOORED BY HIS TOP TIP: Daqman’s coup of the day was to oppose Churchill, who had provided two of his seven Classic winners. He proclaimed: ‘Baby-Boy Roy Has Grown Up Now’. Barney Roy, second in the 2,000 Guineas, duly turned the tables to win the St James’s Palace Stakes. Churchill was only fourth at 2-1 on.
ESCOBAR LOOKS TOO BIG AT 27.0
2.30 Royal Ascot (Jersey Stakes)
STATS: Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute 4, Aidan O’Brien 3, John Gosden and Jeremy Noseda 2 apiece. Draw: stalls 4 to 9 have won four of the last five in big fields, but it’s hard to fancy anything ‘low’ today.
TURNKEY FORM: This is the race Ribchester won last year after running third in the 2,000 Guineas. The year before, the Jersey winner had run seventh in the Guineas.
Dream Castle was fifth in the Newmarket colts’ Classic this time around. Daban was third in the 1,000 Guineas, Glastonbury Song fourth in the Irish 2,000.
GROUND: Mijack, Spirit Of Valour, Taamol and Visionary have shown good form on soft going and Neola’s dam liked cut in the ground.
ANALYSIS: This is a race won twice by the family Hills, father Barrington one; son Charles one. Now namesake Barrington, a runner in Group-3 last term, might well perform above himself in this.
But Daban and Dream Castle bring Group-1 turnkey form to the table, with Dream Castle’s second to Barney Roy in the Greenham now looking good.
The Greenham third, Zainghom was behind Escobar at Sandown, and Hugo Palmer’s colt is from a firm-ground family.
Andre Fabre sends over the French Guineas (soft-ground) runner-up, Le Brivido, but the third that day, Rivet, was well behind Barney Roy in the St James’s Palace yesterday, and the get of Le Brivido’s sire have a very poor strike rate on firmish ground.
VERDICT: Spring Classic form is being overtaken – the colts have succumbed to Barney Roy, the fillies to Enable – but Daban and Dream Castle are relatively unexposed.
Fillies don’t usually win this with a penalty but Daban at 8.2 will like the ground which is a major factor this week. Escobar, who is big at 27.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, also wants it fast, whereas Le Brivido has to prove himself on it. The hood is off Dream Castle and he may be a bit keen.
CHICA’S FAMILY LOVE FIRM GROUND
3.05 Royal Ascot (Queen Mary Stakes)
STATS: Trainers: Wesley Ward 3, Mick Channon 3. Stalls 12, 14, 20 and 16 have won in the last four seasons.
ANALYSIS Wesley Ward goes for a hat-trick in this today, in sparkling form after Lady Aurelia’s romp in the King’s Stand.
Out Of The Flames scorched home at Windsor but was beaten earlier by the late finish of Mrs Gallagher here at Ascot
You need a winner on the last day, and Chica La Habana, Happy Like A Fool and Heartache, who fit that bill, are all drawn high. Over on the other side, Formidable Kitt’s dam, Ceiling Kitty, won this race.
VERDICT: The form horses seem to be on the preferred high side, but I it’s not easy to take a short price in a big-field two-year-old race (look at Declarationofpeace, stone last at 13-8 in the Windsor Castle). You want to be happy like a fool?
At a price (17.0) I like Chica La Habana. Progeny of Chica’s sire has a massive 42% strike rate on firm ground, and (6.8) Heartache’s daddy, Kyllachy, won his big sprints on good to firm. Favourite the saver.
10.0 MIX MAY NOT MINGLE AGAIN
3.40 Royal Ascot (Duke Of Cambridge Stakes)
ANALYSIS: The turnkey race (won by the defector Laugh Aloud) has lost its relevance, and we are left expecting Qemah (four-year-olds are 9/10) to beat last year’s winner, the five-year-old Usherette, who prefers some cut in the ground.
Turret Rocks likes genuine good ground (beaten on good to firm and soft), which also applies to Smart Call.
I like it when punters and layers alike won’t believe a result – like Mix And Mingle’s defeat of Qemah at Lingfield – because it means there’s a good price to look forward to.
Maybe ‘Mix’ won because he didn’t mingle (raced alone stands rails) but the fact remains that I can get four times the odds (10.0) against the Coronation Stakes winner, who has never raced with ‘firm’ in the going description.
ULYSSES CAN SEE OFF JACK HOBBS
4.20 Royal Ascot (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes)
HIGHLAND REEL: Five times a Group-1 winner, best at 1m 4f, fourth ever highest earner in Europe. Twice behind Jack Hobbs but excuses for both and absolutely flying on fast ground again this year.
Stable blanked with nine runners at the meeting yesterday and Highland Reel had a very hard race at Epsom. No Coronation Cup winner has dropped back in trip and won this.
JACK HOBBS: Won the Irish Derby on firmish ground (Highland Reel sweated up) and back to form in Meydan this year, though form from Dubai is not copper bottom.
Fast surface not ideal for him to engage at this shorter trip (beaten the last twice over 1m 2f, including at Ascot in the Champion Stakes).
ULYSEES: Two recent winners of this had won the Gordon Richards Stakes, which this time around went to the progressive Ulysses. Has had this as his target for over a year now, trained by a maestro at improving horses. He‘s the four-year-old. He’s the improver. He’s the one for the trip. He’s 4.8 on BETDAQ.
BALLET STEP UP BY BETDAQ BONUS
5.00 Royal Ascot (Royal Hunt Cup)
STATS: Age this century (17 races): 4yo eight wins, 5yo six. Weight: None carried more than 9st 5lb. Trainer: David Elsworth 2, John Gosden 2. Jockey: James Doyle 2.
TURNKEY FORM: Six of the last seven winners had won beyond a mile, like Banksea, Belgian Bill, Big Baz and Cote d’Azur.
DRAW In the last nine years, three winners came from stall 33 (five from 27 to 33). The four others were housed in 4 to 11.
GOING All success by Banksea, Belgian Bill, Bossy Guest, Early Morning, El Vip, Elleval, George William, Hors De Combat, Master The World, Von Blucher and Yuften came on a sound surface. Cut in the ground is preferred for G K Chesterton, Castle Harbour and Withernsea.
ANALYSIS Ballet Concerto, gelded since last year, won the Spring Mile at Doncaster in the style of a Pattern performer, and might indeed have been placed in the Group-3 Diomed at Epsom but for being shuffled back.
Banksea won the Newbury Spring Cup and is now better off with those just behind him, barring Bossy Guest (5th), now with a pull of 4lb and with Silvestre de Sousa as the guest rider who does the bossing.
Abe Lincoln, supposed subject of a gamble, has Gerald Mosse over to ride and is tongue-tied first time. Abe was Britannia Stakes runner-up last year on the soft.
His trainer, Jeremy Noseda is poised for a hat-trick, and his last seven runenrs have all finished in the first four.
Like Bossy Guest, Blair House has been gelded and ‘could be anything’ with Godolphin and Charlie Appleby in terrific form on the opening day.
VERDICT: Banksea (12.5), Ballet Concerto (17.5) and Blair House (23.0) are nifty offers in an amazing 108% BETDAQ orange, considering the field.
I reckon Ballet Concerto a 10-1 chance and I shall stick to the 10-point stake needed to win 100 at my own pricing up, and back him (10 x 16.5) to get me a BETDAQ bonus of 65 points and win me 165.
WE’LL HAVE A BEAN FEAST AT 19.0
5.35 Royal Ascot (Sandringham Handicap)
ANALYSIS Bean Feasa (19.0 on BETDAQ) was almost knocked over in the Irish Guineas after winning the Leopardstown trial (from Asking) on good to firm.
Classical Times is also reckoned better than the bare form, though behind On Her Toes and Sibilance (14.0) at York on soft. Present Tense is also entirely unexposed. Prosper could benefit form the better ground, and Queen of Time may still be improving.
Gymnaste is with the same winning connections as last year but the Cheveley Park Stud also runs On her Toes.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, unless stated):
2.30 Royal Ascot
BET 4pts win DABAN
BET 1pt win and place ESCOBAR
3.05 Royal Ascot
BET 5pts win HEARTACHE
BET 1pt win and place CHICA LA HABANA
BET 6pts win (stakes saver) HAPPY LIKE A FOOL
3.40 Royal Ascot
BET 3pts win and place MIX AND MINGLE
BET (stakes saver) 3.5pts win QEMAH
4.20 Royal Ascot
BET 7.75pts win (nap) ULYSEES
5.00 Royal Ascot
BULL’S-EYE BET 10pts win and place BALLET CONCERTO
BET 2.5pts win and place BANKSEA
BET 1.25pts win and place BLAIR HOUSE
5.35 Royal Ascot
BET 2.3pts win and place SIBILANCE
BET 1.6pts win and place BEAN FEASA
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