Detroit Lions (11-4, 7-8 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (11-4, 8-6-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -7.5 (47)
Significant Injuries
Detroit: DT Nick Fairley (out– knee)
Green Bay: CB Davon House (out– shoulder)
Recent Trends
Detroit is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games
Detroit is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Green Bay is 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games vs. NFC North opponents
The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 8-0 in Detroit’s last 8 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Detroit’s last 6 games vs. NFC North opponents
The OVER is 6-1 in Green Bay’s last 7 home games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Green Bay’s last 5 games overall
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions are simply too good to be 7.5-point ‘dogs against anybody. They’ve won 11 of their 15 games, they have a dominant defense and a veteran offense, and this is effectively a playoff game for them, as a win would earn them a first-round bye and a home game in the Divisional Round. Plus, the Lions have already notched a double-digit win over the Packers this season, so you know they won’t be the least bit intimidated by the situation.
2. Detroit ranks 2nd in the league in both total defense and points allowed and they’ve been steadily improving on that side of the ball, as 6 of their last 7 opponents have been held to 17 points or fewer. They absolutely smothered the Green Bay offense the first time these teams met, limiting them to just 7 points and 223 total yards.
3. The Packers have really struggled against the run this season, surrendering over 120 rushing yards per game. The Detroit offense, meanwhile, has found their rhythm by leaning on workhorse tailback Joique Bell, who has received at least 10 carries in ten consecutive games and has responded with the best season of his career. Bell should be able to run all over the Packers this week, and if Green Bay decides to gang up on the run game they’re sure to be burned by Calvin Johnson, the NFL’s best receiver.
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers appear to be the NFL’s best team, as they’ve won 6 of their past 7 games and have yet to lose at home this season. And not only have they been winning at Lambeau Field, they’ve been winning big, with five of their 7 wins coming by double-digits. The Lions, meanwhile, have failed to cover in 4 consecutive road games.
2. Green Bay ranks 2nd in the league in points scored and their offense has been positively otherworldly at home, averaging over 40 points per game. The Lions are solid against the run but extremely shaky in the secondary, so Aaron Rodgers should have another banner day in a year full of them. Rodgers is currently the frontrunner for league MVP and could seal the deal with an impressive performance this week. I wouldn’t bet against him.
3. The Green Bay defense has improved tremendously over the past few weeks and now ranks a respectable 12th in both yards allowed and points allowed. This week they’ll face a Detroit offense that has been downright awful this season, producing 24 points or fewer 12 times in 15 games. The Lions rank 18th in total offense and 23rd in points scored; there’s simply no way they’re going to keep up with the high-flying Packers on Sunday.
Prediction
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