The FedEx Cup playoffs roll on with the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston this week and Aussie Jason Day has definitely seized the spotlight, as his 6-shot victory at The Barclays last week was his third win in his last four starts and a performance that places him firmly in the “best player in the world” discussion.
That elusive #1 ranking is now once again held by Rory McIlroy after a stunning missed cut from Jordan Spieth, but Day can claim the top spot for himself with a win this week and he’s currently the favorite at BETDAQ at 7.6. McIlroy is back in action for only the third time since May and follows closely behind Day at 8.6 (remember– Rory has won on this golf course before), and the suddenly unfashionable Jordan Spieth– the man who finished 1st, 1st, 4th, and 2nd in the four majors this year– can be had at 9.6.
Those three loom as the favorites, but with a playable, medium-length golf course and a field that’s limited to the top-100 in the FedEx Cup standings, this really is an instance where every player teeing it up has a legitimate chance to win. Chris Kirk got the job done last year with a final-round 66 to finish at 15-under 269, and it’s very possible that a guy like Kirk (182.0), or Ryan Moore (235.0), or Steven Bowditch (190.0), or Will Wilcox (215.0) could rise up and strike gold again. Those long-odds guys are worth a shot in these Playoffs, and I should know after a week in which my only success was with a 100/1 shot (Tony Finau). Hopefully we’ll have a little more luck with these three selections:
*Reminder– the action starts on Friday this week and wraps up on Monday. Good luck!
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jordan Spieth (9.6)- A missed cut, you say? Well, that’s never been much of an issue for Spieth, who has been a brilliant “bounce-back” player in his brief professional career, responding to each of his last four missed cuts with top-10s in the very next event, including a pair of runner-up finishes. Remember– this guy finished 2nd in the PGA just a couple of weeks ago and now has five top-4 finishes in his last seven starts. It’s not like his game is in shambles. Plus, he’s had some success at TPC Boston in the past, shooting a final-round 62 and finishing 4th here back in 2013. I have a hunch he’ll be the man to beat this week.
Paul Casey (68.0)- After a prolonged slump Paul Casey has officially found his game again, and it feels like a breakthrough win is right around the corner. Casey finished 3rd at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago and has now made twelve of his last thirteen cuts, a stretch which includes five top-10 finishes. TPC Boston is a ball-strikers course and Casey certainly fits the mold, ranking 5th on the PGA Tour in Greens in Regulation this year and 10th in strokes gained tee-to-green. The fact that you can get someone like Casey at a price like 68.0 just speaks to how strong the field is this week, but it’s still a bit surprising. I’ll happily get on board at that price.
David Lingmerth (138.0)- Lingmerth has been on a spectacular run of late, notching five top-15 finishes– including a victory– in his last eight starts. He’s played exactly two poor rounds of golf since the beginning of June: the final round of the Open, where he shot 77, and the opening round last week, where he fired a 78. Other than that it’s been all lollipops and rainbows for Lingmerth, who really seems to be enjoying the ride. He has no history at TPC Boston to speak of, missing the cut in his only appearance in this event, but it’s a very similar course stylistically to Muirfield Village, where he triumphed in a playoff a couple of months ago, so there’s reason for hope. And it’s not like Lingmerth’s previous appearance here should be used as a barometer, anyway, as he’s an ascendant player who is now playing the best golf of his career. There are plenty of intriguing longshots on the board this week, and Lingmerth is my favorite of the bunch.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Henrik Stenson (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.91)
Johnson played well at The Barclays last week, finishing 9th, but he hasn’t seemed the same since his weekend meltdown at St. Andrews and you have to wonder whether some motivational wind has been taken out of his sails. Stenson, meanwhile, has been rolling lately, finishing 2nd at The Barclays, 25th at the PGA despite an opening-round 76, and 6th at the WGC-Bridgestone. And Stenson certainly knows his way around TPC Boston, having won here two years ago with a tournament-record 262 (22-under par). Recommendation: Stenson at 1.91
Patrick Reed (1.91) vs. Webb Simpson (1.91)
For most of the year, these two guys have been pretty similar: cut-makers who haven’t been in contention much. Simpson has begun to show signs of soothing more, though, with a 6th-place finish at the Wyndham Championship two weeks ago and a final-round 66 at The Barclays last Sunday. Plus, Simpson is always a good bet at TPC Boston, a course where he triumphed in 2011 and finished 9th last year. Recommendation: Simpson at 1.91
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