While the very best players on the European Tour are mostly elsewhere this week, a massive 210-man field will tee it up in the Joburg Open, which is once again being held at Royal Johannesburg and Kensington Golf Club. This event is co-sanctioned by South Africa’s Sunshine Tour and it’s the largest field we’ll see on the European Tour this year, which should be taken into consideration when making your pre-tournament bets (more players means less of a chance that “your man” wins, obviously). South African George Coetzee is back to defend his title, and he’s one of only two players in the field currently residing in the top-100 of the world rankings (Englishman Andy Sullivan is the other).
Scores are traditionally low in this tournament, as Coetzee shot 19-under 268 last year and Richard Sterne went even deeper in 2013, posting a tournament-record 260 (-27). Both the East and West courses at Royal Johannesburg will be used over the first two days, but the venerable East course will be the site of both Saturday’s third round and Sunday’s final round. Picking the winner of a tournament with a 210-player field that is bereft of top-tier talent is certainly challenging, but we think we’ve found some good value with the picks listed below. We’ve also taken a stab at a couple of BETDAQ’s tournament match bets:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Thomas Aiken (23)- Aiken is a 31-year old South African who always seems to play well close to home, tying for 5th in January’s South African Open and putting together an impressive string of performances at this event, finishing 3rd (’11), 24th (’12), 6th (’13), and 5th (’14) in his last four starts at Royal Johannesburg. He has three career European Tour wins under his belt, so we know he can get the job done, and he’s shot par or better in 10 of his last 11 competitive rounds, so we know he’s on-form at the moment. It’s no sure thing, but at the current price I believe Aiken is worth a bet.
Dawie van der Walt (66)- Van der Walt is another South African, and based recent history I’d advise you to invest heavily in the South Africans this week. After all, a South African has won this event in each of the past five years, and they absolutely dominate the top of the leaderboard: last year, for instance, four of the top-6 finishers were South African, the year before it was four of the top nine. Van der Walt may not be quite as accomplished as some of his countrymen, but he plays well at Royal Johannesburg (two top-10 finishes in four career starts, shot 10-under 276 last year and finished 29th) and he’s been solid lately, shooting a combined 24-under par in his last three events and notching top-30 finishes at Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Plus, he’s won twice on Tour, so we’ve seen it happen before. It’s a bit of a longshot, sure, but at better than 60/1 I think it’s a shot worth taking.
Keith Horne (94)- Listen, I was looking for a non-South African who may be a good bet, but to be honest I couldn’t find one whose odds significantly diverged from my expectations of him. So, we’re sticking with what will hopefully be a winning formula: we’re relying on the locals to do what they usually do at the Joburg Open. Horne is a prime example, a 43-year old journeyman who has spent time on tours all over the world and probably wouldn’t see a dime of my money at any other tournament. He’s been great at Royal Johannesburg, though, making the cut in 6 of his last 7 appearances and finishing in the top-6 twice (2nd in 2010, 6th in 2013). I know it’s not a name that has been talked about much in the pre-tournament buildup, but don’t be surprised if Keith Horne is in contention on Sunday afternoon.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Thomas Pieters (1.91) vs. Tyrell Hatton (1.91)
Which of these 23-year old young guns will come out on top this week? Pieters has been playing the better golf of late, making the cut in all five of his events this year and finishing in the top-16 three times, while Hatton has missed two of his last three cuts. However, Hatton played extraordinarily well at Royal Johannesburg last year, shooting 16-under par and finishing 2nd, while Pieters missed the cut. I have a hunch that a return to friendly surroundings will bring out the best in young Mr. Hatton. Recommendation: Hatton at 1.91
George Coetzee (1.91) vs. Alexander Noren (1.91)
So far every one of my recommended bets has either involved a South African or someone with a great history at Royal Johannesburg, but I view this matchup a little differently. Yes, Coetzee is a South African who won this event just last year. However, he’s been struggling of late, missing the cut in 3 of his past 5 events, a stretch which includes his 70-77 in the South African Open. Noren, meanwhile, has played some fabulous golf in recent weeks, finishing 11th in Thailand, 2nd in Dubai, and 9th in Qatar in his last three starts. Plus, he finished 13th in his last appearance at the Joburg Open, so he’s clearly comfortable at Royal Johannesburg. Recommendation: Noren at 1.91
Richard Sterne (1.91) vs. Thomas Aiken (1.91)
Sterne has proven himself at this event time and again, most notably two years ago, when he set the 72-hole scoring record en route to a 7-shot win. However, his golf was awful on his recent trip to America, as he missed the cut in each of his last three events and has now missed the cut in all six of the PGA Tour events he’s played this season. The clincher for me was an interview I saw him give on Tuesday in which he discussed the current state of his game. Here are some highlights:
“My results haven’t been good the last few weeks, I need to find my game again”
“If I’m hitting it well then I feel like I can do just about anything with the golf ball. It’s been a while since I had that feeling”
“It would be nice to have a round of golf where I hit the ball well, make some putts, and walk off the course with a bit of confidence”
“It’s been a horrendous start for me and I need to keep my card somewhere, so I’m under a bit of pressure with that. I haven’t been playing well, so that hasn’t made it easier”
Does that sound like a guy who you want to trust with your hard-earned money? I mean, really, could those pre-tournament quotes possibly sound any worse? Recommendation: Aiken at 1.91
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