Novak Djokovic (1.17) vs. Stan Wawrinka (6.4)

It’s been an entertaining fortnight at Roland Garros, as Serena Williams picked up her 20th Grand Slam title yesterday over a very game Lucie Safarova and today we get to see if Novak Djokovic can complete the career Grand Slam by dispatching Stan Wawrinka, who has played some fabulous tennis over the past two weeks.

Djokovic is a heavy favorite here for a reason: he’s 17-3 in 20 career matches against Wawrinka and he’s been absolutely dominant in this tournament, winning his first five matches in straight sets before needing the full five to finish off Andy Murray in the semifinal. However, it’s not like Wawrinka hasn’t made things interesting in the past: each of the last four times these two have met in a Grand Slam the matches have been 5-set affairs, with Wawrinka winning once. Don’t be surprised if Wawrinka comes out playing really aggressive tennis, forcing the issue and going for his shots. He’s not going to win by wearing Djokovic down; his only hope is his monster forehand (111 forehand winners in this tournament) and formidable first serve (80% first serve points won in this tournament). Djokovic has a pretty good forehand himself, of course, and his serve has been otherworldly over the last two weeks: 71% first serves in play, 75% first serve points won, and he’s faced just 28 break points in 94 service games. His game plan will probably be a bit more conservative than Wawrinka’s; I expect him to move Wawrinka around and really make him work. Longer points will favor Djokovic in this match.

Wawrinka has played so well these last two weeks and his odds are pretty juicy, so I’m sure plenty of folks are tempted to go with the upset. Losing here would be a disastrous failure for Djokovic though, as he’ll probably never have a better chance to win this tournament and he’s clearly been the best player in the world for the past several months. Frankly, I just don’t see the Djoker letting this match get away from him, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Wawrinka steals a set. Recommendation: Djokovic at 1.17, Djokovic 3-1 (sets) at 3.25


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