HERO WORLD CHALLENGE: An elite group of 18 players will be roughing it in the Bahamas this week, and despite the presence of luminaries such as Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, and Henrik Stenson, all eyes will be on the 898th-ranked player in the world: one Eldrick T. Woods. Yes, this marks Tiger’s return to competitive golf after a 15-month hiatus, and folks are more than a little curious about the state of his game.

The venue is a familiar one for Woods– Albany, a 600-acre resort and golf course that he created along with Ernie Els back in 2010. Els designed the course, a 7,400-yard links-style layout that features massive sand dunes and ample bunkering, and this is the second consecutive year that it will be used for this tournament. Bubba Watson took it deep in 2015, getting all the way to 25-under par thanks to benign weather conditions and winning by three shots. Watson is back to defend and is currently priced at 23.0, but his poor performance in the HSBC Champions a month ago leaves some doubt about the state of his game.

Handicapping the field is a little trickier than usual this week thanks to where this event falls on the calendar, as most guys haven’t teed it up in a few weeks and we don’t really know what the weather is going to look like– high winds are a possibility for the weekend, but we also thought the wind was going to blow last year and it never materialized. If conditions are benign we’ll see another birdie-fest, but if the breeze picks up the advantage shifts to those who can control their ball flight and take care of business around the greens– someone like Zach Johnson, for instance.

Here are my recommendations:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Brooks Koepka (10.5)- After watching Bubba Watson totally overpower Albany 12 months ago, it sure is tempting to go with a guy who can hit the ball nine miles. Koepka certainly fits the bill, and he’s been playing great golf of late, winning the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan two weeks ago and finishing runner-up in his last PGA Tour start, the Shriners Open in Vegas. Albany features five Par-5s so Koepka will have plenty of scoring opportunities, and his play in this event last year, when he shot 18-under and finished 7th, suggests that he likes the layout. The price is a little short, but Koepka has as good a chance as anybody this week and, after all, he only has to beat 17 other guys.

Russell Knox (32.0)- It’s a step up in class for Knox to be included in a field like this but he’s certainly earned it, as he comes in here on the heels of three consecutive top-10 finishes and is playing the best golf of his career. Knox is a good ball-striker who is adept at controlling his trajectory in the wind, so breezy weather would put him at an advantage, and the fact that he’s won a WGC event suggests that he won’t be intimidated by the names on the leaderboard. Plus, a guy like Knox might have a little extra incentive to play well in this type of situation, as he surely wants to prove that he belongs with and can beat the very best. This isn’t merely a vacation for him, rest assured.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Hideki Matsuyama (1.8) vs. Henrik Stenson (2.0)

Matsuyama is a popular pick this week on account of his recent form, but he was dreadful in this event last year, finishing dead last and carding two over-par rounds (there were only four over-par rounds recorded all week), so the possibility exists that Albany simply isn’t a good fit for him. I’ll take my chances with Stenson, who finished runner-up at the HSBC Champions a month ago and has since recorded back-to-back top-10s on the European Tour. Recommendation: Stenson at 2.0

Matt Kuchar (1.91) vs. Emiliano Grillo (1.91)

The normally rock-solid Kuchar has been off his game a bit lately, missing two of his last three cuts and generally looking like someone who would rather be on a fishing boat than a golf course. He played poorly in this tournament last year, too, beating just four players in the field, so maybe winter golf isn’t Kuchar’s cup of tea. We haven’t seen any such signs from Grillo, who has built on his Rookie of the Year season with three consecutive top-20 finishes to begin the 2016/17 campaign. Recommendation: Grillo at 1.91