Houston Texans (6-6, 7-5 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10, 3-8-1 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread

BETDAQ Line: Houston -6 (42)

Significant Injuries

Houston: TE Garrett Graham (questionable– ankle), CB Kareem Jackson (questionable– knee), LB Akeem Dent (questionable– neck), CB Jonathan Joseph (questionable– Achilles), LB Jadeveon Clowney (out– knee)

Jacksonville: LB Jeremiah George (questionable– ankle), WR Justin Blackmon (out– suspension)

Recent Trends

Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record

Houston is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games

Houston is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win

Jacksonville is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a win

Jacksonville is 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC opponents

The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams

The OVER is 4-0 in Houston’s last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record

The OVER is 5-2 in Houston’s last 7 games overall

The OVER is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last 5 games following a win

The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Jacksonville’s last 21 games vs. AFC South opponents

Three reasons to back Houston

1. The Texans are a contending team that desperately needs a win to bolster their playoff hopes, while the Jaguars are a 2-10 laughingstock that has already lost 9 games by 8 points or more. The fact that Jacksonville managed to pick up a win last week is the only thing keeping this line where it is, and at the current number the Texans should be backed without hesitation.

2. The Jacksonville offense is a bungling, utterly inept unit that ranks 31st (out of 32) in both yards per game and points scored. They’re quarterbacked by a rookie who leads the league in interceptions, and he’s “protected” (quotations necessary in this case) by one of the NFL’s worst offensive lines. This week that line will have to deal with the dominant J.J. Watt and a Houston defense that ranks 11th in points allowed. In other words, the Jags are in trouble.

3. Houston has a run-first offense that averages over 134 yards per game on the ground, and the Jaguars really struggle against the run, ranking 28th in rushing defense. Of course, the Jags are generally bad on the defensive side of the ball, surrendering 27.4 points per game, but the fact that they’re weakest against the run is notable in this matchup.

Three reasons to back Jacksonville

1. Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley is known for his positive outlook and unwavering commitment to incremental improvement, and those attributes are obvious in the play of his team over the past couple of years. Last season the Jaguars won 4 of their final 8 games after losing their first eight, and based on last week’s performance, when the Jags erased a 21-3 halftime deficit and eventually defeated the New York Giants, this season could be following a similar script. This week the Jags are a generous 6-point home ‘dog against a Houston team that lost by 13 to those very same Giants a few weeks ago.

2. The Jacksonville defense has improved greatly over the course of the season and has allowed just 18.7 points per game in their last 4 home games. They should be able to build on their recent success against the pedestrian Houston offense, a unit that has produced 23 points or fewer eight times this season.

3. The Texans rank 27th in total defense and 30th against the pass, surrendering over 382 total yards and 270 pass yards per game. The Jacksonville offense is coming off their highest-scoring outing of the season and they’ve finally found a feature running back in Denard Robinson. They’ll be able to do some damage against the vulnerable Houston defense, which is exactly what you’re looking for in a 6-point home ‘dog.

Prediction


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