Miami Dolphins (3-3, 3-3 ATS) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6, 2-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Miami -6 (43)
Significant Injuries
Miami: DE Dion Jordan (questionable– shoulder), G Billy Turner (questionable– foot), G Shelley Smith (questionable– knee), WR Brandon Gibson (questionable– hamstring), S Jimmy Wilson (questionable– hamstring), RB Knowshon Moreno (out– knee)
Jacksonville: RB Toby Gerhart (questionable– ankle), DE Andre Branch (out– groin), LB Paul Posluszny (out– pectoral), WR Justin Blackmon (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
Miami is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing fewer than 250 total yards in their previous game
Miami is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points
Jacksonville is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall
Jacksonville is 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games
The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 33-15 in Miami’s last 48 road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Jacksonville’s last 4 games following a win
The UNDER is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins are the superior team in this matchup: they score more points, allow fewer points, have a better record, and have performed better against the spread than Jacksonville. A bet on the Dolphins is a bet on the better team, it’s really as simple as that.
2. Jacksonville is averaging a league-worst 15 points per game and Miami has been excellent on defense this season, ranking 4th in total yards allowed and 3rd against the pass. It could get ugly for the Jacksonville offense on Sunday.
3. The Miami offense has steadily improved this season and this week they’ll be facing a shorthanded Jacksonville defense, as the Jags lost defensive stalwarts Paul Posluszny and Andre Branch to injuries last week. The injury to Posluszny, the unit’s best player and captain, is especially devastating. Without him, a Jacksonville defense that was already surrendering 27.3 points per game could totally crater.
Three reasons to back Jacksonville
1. The Jags are playing their best football of the season and now they get a home game against a Miami team that’s covered just twice in their last 8 road games against teams with losing records. The Jags have a better-than-average chance of winning this one outright, so the opportunity to back them as 6-point home ‘dogs feels like stealing.
2. The Dolphins have a one-dimensional, run-first offense that could struggle against a Jacksonville defense that has played at an elite level recently, holding their last three opponents to 39 combined points.
3. Rookie quarterback Blake Bortles has breathed new life into the Jacksonville offense but the team won last week despite a subpar performance from Bortles, which is a good sign. If Bortles plays like he did in Week 6, when he threw for 336 yards against a good Tennessee secondary, then Jacksonville will win this game outright. The Jags are a team on the rise.
Prediction
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