Minnesota Vikings (2-4, 2-4 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (3-3, 3-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Buffalo -5 (42.5)
Significant Injuries
Minnesota: LB Chad Greenway (questionable– hand), DT Sharrif Floyd (questionable– elbow), LB Gerald Hodges (out– hamstring), TE Kyle Rudolph (out– abdomen), DE Corey Wooton (out– back)
Buffalo: WR Marcus Easley (out– knee), WR Marquise Goodwin (out– hamstring), LB Ty Powell (out– ankle)
Recent Trends
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Buffalo is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss
Buffalo is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit home loss
The UNDER is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game
The OVER is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last 7 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-1 in Buffalo’s last 6 games overall
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Vikings are getting too many points from a Buffalo team that starts an aging journeyman at quarterback and was just beaten soundly at home last week. It’s not like the Vikings are the Jaguars or the Raiders– they have two wins under their belt, including a 28-point road victory. They may beat the Bills outright, which makes them an absolute steal as a 5-point ‘dog.
2. The Bills were blown out at home last week and they usually don’t respond well to performances like that, failing to cover in 8 consecutive games following a double-digit home loss. Their defense is regressing, as they’ve surrendered 74 combined points over their last three games after a solid start to the season.
3. Buffalo has a terrible offense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in most statistical categories: 25th in total yards, 22nd in rushing yards, 26th in points scored… the list goes on. This week they’ll face a Vikings defense that has been very good this season, ranking 7th in total yards allowed and 6th against the pass. In an ugly, low-scoring game like this one is likely to be, the 5-point ‘dog is the only sensible play.
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills are a team whose lone weakness over the past couple of years has been quarterback play, and they took a step towards shoring up that weakness when they benched young E.J. Manuel in favor of veteran Kyle Orton two weeks ago. The team is 1-1 since the switch, but Orton is averaging over 300 pass yards per game and the Buffalo offense finally has the balance its lacked for quite some time. The Bills now have the look of a playoff contender, while this week’s opponent– Minnesota– is starting to look like a candidate for the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
2. Buffalo is surrendering a league-best 67.5 rushing yards per game, so they’ll be able to smother Minnesota’s mediocre rushing attack and make the Vikings a one-dimensional offense. That certainly won’t work in Minnesota’s favor, as they start a rookie at quarterback and currently rank 30th in passing offense. This is a great matchup for the Buffalo defense.
3. The Vikings are truly one of the NFL’s worst teams– they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 and those four losses have come by 80 combined points. Their offense is especially bad, producing just 314 total yards and 17.3 points per game, and Buffalo ranks 11th in total defense and 8th in points allowed, so it’s difficult to imagine the Minnesota offense having much success this week.
Prediction
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