Denver Broncos (11-3, 7-7 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1, 7-6-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Denver -3.5 (47)
Significant Injuries
Denver: WR Emmanuel Sanders (questionable– illness), OT Ryan Clady (questionable– thigh), RB Ronnie Hillman (questionable– foot), QB Peyton Manning (questionable– thigh), CB Kayvon Webster (questionable– shoulder), OT Paul Cornick (out– toe), LB Brandon Marshall (out– foot)
Cincinnati: LB Emmanuel Lamur (doubtful– hamstring), WR James Wright (doubtful– knee)
Recent Trends
Denver is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 December games
Denver is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday night games
Cincinnati is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a win
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 30-10 in Denver’s last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-1 in Denver’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 6 games overall
Three reasons to back Denver
1. Without question, the Broncos are the superior team in this matchup. They’re better on both sides of the ball, they have a better record, and they’re led by a first-ballot Hall of Famer at quarterback, while Cincinnati is stuck with Andy Dalton. And the Bengals have lost their last two home games by 42 combined points, so the fact that this game is in Cincinnati shouldn’t make much of a difference. This isn’t rocket science: back the better team.
2. Peyton Manning is having another terrific year and the Broncos have been nearly unstoppable on offense once again, averaging over 29 points and 400 total yards per game. The Cincinnati defense, meanwhile, has been tremendously disappointing this season, ranking 22nd in yards allowed and surrendering 150 combined points in their last 5 home games (30 per game).
3. As good as the offense has been, Denver has been even better on the other side of the ball, as they currently rank 3rd in total defense and have surrendered 17 points or fewer in three consecutive games. The Bengals average just 22.2 points per game and they’ve been smothered by quality defenses this season, getting shut out once, producing just 3 points in another game, and scoring 27 points or less ten times. Cincinnati will have trouble moving the ball in this game.
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals have recovered nicely from a midseason slump and are now playing their best football. They’ve won 4 of their past 5 games, a stretch punctuated by their dominating 30-0 win over Cleveland last week. They hold a slim half-game lead over Pittsburgh in the AFC North, so they badly need another win this week. Fortunately, they’re playing at home, where they’ve been great under Marvin Lewis (and a great team to back– 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17). The only other time they’ve been a home underdog this season was back in Week 8 against Baltimore, and they won that game outright. Expect an identical result against a Denver team that seems to have lost its mojo lately.
2. Cincinnati has finally started playing dominant defense again, limiting 4 of their last 5 opponents to 13 points or fewer. They’re certainly catching Denver at the right time, as the Broncos have scored less than 30 points in three straight games and 5 of their past 7, the worst stretch they’ve had on offense since Peyton Manning came to town. Manning is officially listed as “questionable” for this game with a thigh injury, which marks his first appearance on the injury report this season.
3. It took awhile, but the Bengals have finally found their identity on offense: without many people realizing it, they’ve cultivated one of the top rushing attacks in the NFL. They average over 130 yards per game on the ground, ranking 6th in the league, but they’ve been even better than that lately, rushing for 767 combined yards in their last 5 games (153 ypg). The midseason injury to Giovani Bernard opened the door for bruising rookie Jeremy Hill, and now that Bernard has returned the Bengals have a “thunder and lightning” tandem that is unmatched leaguewide. The Broncos rushing defense hasn’t really been tested this season because opponents are always having to go into “pass-first” made to keep up with Peyton Manning, but that’s going to change on Monday night. They’d better be ready.
Prediction
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