Ohio State (13-1, 9-5 ATS) vs. Oregon (13-1, 10-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Oregon -6 (74)
Significant Injuries
Ohio St: None
Oregon: WR Devon Allen (doubtful– knee), WR Darren Carrington (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
Ohio St. is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. Pac-12 opponents
Ohio St. is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games
Ohio St. is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games
Oregon is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games
Oregon is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games
The OVER is 4-0 in Ohio St.’s last 4 non-conference games
The OVER is 21-5 in Ohio St.’s last 26 games overall
The OVER is 5-1-1 in Oregon’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 5-2 in Oregon’s last 7 bowl games
Three reasons to back Ohio St.
1. Nobody really knows how good the Buckeyes are. They were largely written off after an early-season loss to Virginia Tech, and the Big Ten’s reputation has taken such a hit in recent years that nobody batted an eye when Ohio St. ran through the conference schedule. As a matter of fact, many were irked when the Buckeyes were awarded the final spot in the inaugural College Football Playoff over TCU and Baylor. And then, last week: Ohio State went toe-to-toe with prohibitive favorite Alabama, the SEC champ, and came out on top. Moreover, the Buckeyes won the game in the trenches, physically dominating an Alabama team that was supposedly the baddest in the land. Now they face another darling of the public, Oregon, and the Ducks have been installed as 6-point favorites. But why, exactly, are we to assume that Oregon is 6 points better? The two teams have zero common opponents, they’ve both lost one game, and neither will be able to stop the other (the total is 74). Ohio State proved that they were better than the supposed “best” team last time, so I don’t see how they’re not a value as a 6-point ‘dog.
2. The Buckeyes have a dominant offensive line that has paved the way for a rushing attack that ranks 10th nationally with 262.2 yards per game. They ran right over the mighty Alabama defense in their last game, totaling 281 yards on the ground on 42 carries. And this week’s opponent, Oregon, is weaker against the run than Alabama by any objective measure. The Ducks are undersized in the front seven, they surrendered 156.1 rushing yards per game this season, and in their lone loss they allowed Arizona to run for 208 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Buckeyes will be able to do whatever they want to do on the offensive side of the ball.
3. We’ve seen this script before with Oregon, haven’t we? They tear through their schedule, running up ridiculous numbers against below-average Pac-12 defenses, and then when they face a team with a big, tough defensive front that can dominate a game they wilt and go down with a whimper. It happened against Auburn in their last shot at a National Championship, it’s happened against Stanford, Boise St., and others. Well, Ohio St. perfectly fits the profile. Their defense should overwhelm the Oregon offensive line and turn the Ducks into a pass-first, dink-and-dunk offense. Marcus Mariota will still be able to put up some points, but the Oregon offensive machine will have its legs cut out from beneath it and the Ducks won’t be able to keep up with the high-scoring Buckeyes.
Three reasons to back Oregon
1. First reason to back Oregon? Uhh… have you seen this team play??? The Ducks have won 9 straight games, topping 40 points each time and winning each game by 12 points or more. In their last game they embarrassed defending national champion Florida State, letting off the gas in the 4th quarter to “only” beat the Seminoles 59-20. They’re led by the best quarterback in the country and their defense has surrendered 20 points or fewer in 4 consecutive games. This is the last opportunity you’ll ever have to place a bet on this particular group of players, and I suggest you take advantage.
2. Marcus Mariota deservedly won the Heisman Trophy, as he was the best player in all of college football this season. Despite a somewhat limited receiving corps, Mariota averaged over 310 passing yards per game and led an offense that ranked 2nd nationally in points scored, producing 42.7 points per game. The Ohio State defense, which allowed 24 points or more in their last four regular-season games and surrendered 35 to Alabama last week, has very little chance of slowing down Mariota and the Ducks.
3. The Oregon defense steadily improved over the course of the season, surrendering 20 points or fewer in 5 of their final 6 games after really struggling over the first half of the year. In their last game the Ducks flummoxed former Heisman winner Jameis Winston, forcing the Florida State quarterback into two ghastly turnovers and a subpar overall performance. This week it gets a bit easier for the Ducks, as Ohio State is down to their 3rd-string quarterback after injuries to Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett. Do you really think the inexperienced Cardale Jones can lead the Buckeyes to victory over Marcus Mariota and Oregon? It seems almost inconceivable, frankly.
Prediction
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