With plenty of surprising results and several injuries to high-profile players that threaten further chaos, the first two weeks of the 2015 NFL season have shown us once again that preseason projections are to be taken with a grain of salt in the world’s most violent team sport.
What do you make of the NFC East now, or the AFC South? Other than the New England Patriots, who look like they’ll be the team to beat in the AFC once again (barring the unforeseen…), is there a single team in the NFL that you can point to right now and say, “there’s a Super Bowl contender”?
Green Bay has won two games but the offense seems to be missing something without Jordy Nelson; the Seahawks are 0-2 and their once-feared defense is surrendering over 30 points per game; the Colts are also winless and they haven’t even been competitive in either one of their losses; Denver is 2-0 but Peyton Manning is obviously now just a shell of his former self and the Broncos will have to rely on their defense to win; and Tony Romo’s broken collarbone has blown the NFC East race wide open despite the fact that none of the other three teams in the division– Washington, Philadelphia, and the N.Y. Giants– seem playoff-worthy. So… Arizona? Cincinnati? Carolina/Atlanta? (*snickers*) Are these viable Super Bowl contenders?
Of course, we’re only talking about two games– two games!– and let me remind you of a few things that occurred in the first two weeks of last season: Miami beat eventual Super Bowl champion New England, San Diego beat eventual NFC champion Seattle, San Francisco beat Dallas, Tennessee (who finished 2-14) beat Kansas City, and so on. Obviously, then, it’s important to guard against overreaction at this point in the proceedings, and we’ve done our best to keep that in mind while evaluating the Week 3 games.
It’s a tough slate in which eleven games feature lines of 3.5 points or smaller, but hopefully we’ve dug up a few winners:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (Bal -3, 44.5)
Based on what we’ve seen out of these teams over the first two weeks of the season– Cincinnati has won twice, including a 33-13 thrashing of Oakland, while Baltimore is 0-2 with a loss to those very same Raiders– it may strike you a bit odd that Baltimore is favored this week. After all, the Ravens haven’t been particularly good on offense and their defense surrendered 37 points and a game-winning drive to Derek-freakin-Carr last week, so making a case for Cincinnati here seems pretty easy. Remember that these are division rivals, though, and that home-field advantage has been critical in this series, with the home team covering in five of the past six meetings. Remember also that the Ravens have traditionally been a great bet at home under John Harbaugh, and this is particularly true when the issue appears to be in doubt– Joe Flacco is 21-11 ATS in his career as a home underdog or favorite of fewer than 7 points. The Bengals have been running the ball very effectively this season– over 150 yards per game on the ground in their two wins– but the Ravens are stout against the run and they know this Cincinnati offense well. Look for Flacco to out-duel Andy Dalton in a relatively low-scoring game. Recommendation: Baltimore -3 at 2.02
Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns (Cle -3.5, 42)
I know, I know…I say “Raiders/Browns” and your first reaction is “change the channel!” While I can’t guarantee that it will be first-rate viewing, I do think there’s opportunity here for those willing to wade through the muck. The Raiders are coming off an emotional win over Baltimore, but let’s not pretend this is a good team: they were hammered by Cincinnati in Week 1, and even in their win last week their defense was shredded to the tune of 493 yards and 33 points. While the Browns won’t be contending for the Super Bowl this season, they’re much better defensively than Oakland and their offense should benefit from the return of veteran quarterback Josh McCown, who was effective against New York in Week 1 before being knocked out of the game with a concussion. Johnny Manziel was able to make a couple of big plays last week, but I believe the Cleveland offense will benefit from McCown’s steady hand and pocket presence. The Raiders have covered just once in their last ten games following a win, and I expect that trend to continue. Recommendation: Cleveland -3.5 at 1.93
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets (NY -2.5, 46)
When I first saw this line I felt it was too obvious. I mean, of course New York is the play here, right? Put aside all the preseason hype and what, exactly, have the Eagles done to give anyone any confidence? Their defense, which was dreadful in 2014, still has obvious issues in the secondary, and their offense ranks last in rushing and 29th in points scored despite facing two defenses — those in Atlanta and Dallas– that were among the NFL’s worst last season. The Jets, meanwhile, have been dominant defensively, surrendering an NFL-best 8.5 points per game, and surprisingly effective on offense. The addition of Brandon Marshall has given them an above-average receiving corps for the first time in what seems like a decade, Ryan Fitzpatrick seems very comfortable in Chan Gailey’s system (as he should be, having played under Gailey in Buffalo), and the offensive line looks like one of the AFC’s best. So, like I said, too obvious… right? I mean, every gambler knows to run for the hills when you see something that looks too good to be true. Imagine my surprise, then, when a friend of mine– someone whose opinion I respect– told me that this was his favorite game of the week, but he was think of staying away because it was “too obvious.” Of course, he was talking about the other side!! He thinks it’s an obvious Eagles play! His reasoning was something along the lines of “we know the Jets are worse than they’ve looked and the Eagles are better than they’ve looked, recency bias affecting the line and creating value, Eagles will ‘want it more’ because they’ve lost twice,” etc. It may not make any sense to some of you (maybe I’m just sick), but knowing that there are people out there who believe as my friend does– that this is an obvious Eagles play– frees me of my “too easy” paranoia and allows me to go with my gut. I told you… sick. It’s only a matter of time before I’m looking at my wife’s dog, saying “bark twice for Giants! Lick your genitals for Vikings!” Recommendation: New York -2.5 at 1.86
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (Ari -6.5, 44)
The Cardinals have been the NFC’s best team through two weeks of the 2015 season, cruising to two easy victories while leading the NFL in point differential (+37). Now they host the hated 49ers, a team they’ve only beaten once in their last six opportunities. The Niners were trounced by Pittsburgh last week, looking every bit like a team that is still scrambling to replace their coach and several key starters. Let’s face it, the Jim Tomsula 49ers are simply the “Harbaugh Niners Lite”, a team that aims to play the same way but no longer has the personnel (or leadership?) to execute the vision. They won’t be getting any sympathy in Arizona, and I’m sure Cardinals coach Bruce Arians will be more than happy to pour it on if he can. These Cards have been a great bet at home anyway, covering in 7 of their last 8 opportunities, and now they get a wounded division rival just ripe for a beating… I believe this is the last week we’ll be able to milk value out of San Francisco’s Week 1 win over Minnesota. After Sunday the jig will be up, and the oddsmakers will begin to treat the Niners like the bad team that they are. Recommendation: Arizona -6.5 at 1.96
Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7, 49)
It’s business as usual in Green Bay after beating the Seahwaks to improve to 2-0… or is it? Count me as one who believes that this Green Bay offense isn’t quite clicking like it has in years past, at least not yet. That’s to be expected after losing Jordy Nelson, the team’s top big-play threat, but I feel like it’s a reality that not everyone has fully accepted yet, and I think this week’s line is indicative of that. Are the Packers really 7 points better than the Chiefs right now? Keep in mind that the Chiefs went on the road and dominated the Houston Texans in Week 1 before really letting one get away against Denver last Thursday night. They’ll have had a full 10 days of rest and preparation when they travel to Lambeau for this Monday nighter, and they’ll be facing a Green Bay defense that has really struggled against the run thus far, surrendering 308 combined rushing yards through two games. As we know, the Kansas City offense revolves around running back Jamaal Charles, one of the NFL’s best players. Expect Charles to run wild and the Chiefs to keep this one close. Recommendation: Kansas City +7 at 1.82
2015 Record: 5-4
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