NFL WEEK 4: Upsets, dramatic finishes, breakout stars, high-profile injuries… the first three weeks of the 2016 season have been chock full of excitement and intrigue, and as we turn our attention to Week 4 it’s become clear that we need to put our preseason expectations aside and look at each team with a fresh set of eyes.
This is especially true if you’ve had a rough go of it so far, and after an absolute bloodbath in Week 3 I certainly fall into that category. No time to panic, though— NFL bettors know that September can be a bumpy ride, but as long as we maintain our objectivity and open-mindedness we can rest assured that calmer seas are just ahead.
With that in mind, here are my favorite Week 4 games:
Cleveland Browns @ Washington Redskins (Was -7.5, 46)
Recommendation: Washington -7.5
Optimism is in short supply in Cleveland these days, and with good reason— the winless Browns have serious issues on both sides of the ball and their head coach is already having to make public declarations about not wanting to “tank” the season. Injuries to quarterbacks Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown have forced them to start rookie Cody Kessler at the game’s most important position, and though Kessler played a relatively mistake-free game in Miami last week I still don’t put much faith in his ability to competently lead an NFL offense.
Meanwhile, Kessler’s counterpart on Sunday, Washington’s Kirk Cousins, currently ranks second in the league in pass yards per game and will be facing a Browns defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed and is surrendering 28 points per contest. The Redskins will be looking to build some early-season momentum after pulling out a tough road win in New York last week, and a home game against the toothless Browns offers them the perfect opportunity to do so. This one could get ugly.
Seattle Seahawks @ New York Jets (Sea -2.5, 40)
Recommendation: New York +2.5
Imagine you’re Ryan Fitzpatrick: you just threw six interceptions in one of the most humiliating performances anyone can remember, your receivers are a little banged-up, and who’s coming to town? The Seattle Seahawks and the Legion of Boom, that’s who. Considering Fitzpatrick has never appeared in a postseason game, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that he’ll be under as much pressure to succeed this week as he’s ever been. How will he respond?
I, for one, expect him to respond with professional pride and a veteran’s patience, and he’ll need plenty of patience against a Seattle defense that leads the league in yards allowed at only 250.3 per game. As good as Seattle has been on defense, though, the offense is another matter: Russell Wilson has a bum knee, the running game hasn’t been the same without Marshawn Lynch, and the ‘Hawks have been held to 12 points or fewer in two of their three games. The Jets have one of the best defensive front sevens in all of football, so it will be up to a gimpy Wilson to generate offense, something he has struggled to do thus far. This one should turn into an old-fashioned slugfest, and I like New York as a short home ‘dog.
New Orleans Saints @ San Diego Chargers (SD -4, 53.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans +4
Not many people are too eager to back the Saints right now after watching their defense get steamrolled by Atlanta on Monday night, but I’d be careful about giving up on Drew Brees and Co. For one thing, the defense isn’t quite as bad as people make it out to be— just two weeks ago, remember, they went up to New York and held a good Giants offense to 16 points and 64 rushing yards (on 32 attempts), and they should be getting run-stuffing safety Kenny Vaccaro back this week after he was forced to miss the Atlanta game with an ankle injury.
More importantly, the Brees-led New Orleans offense is still an unstoppable machine, ranking third in the league in total yards per game and first in passing offense, and they’ll be facing a San Diego secondary that has been totally inept through three games, surrendering more passing yards than all but two teams leaguewide. And remember: this will be the first time Brees has returned to San Diego since the franchise shipped him out of town 10 years ago. You think he’ll be ready to play?? It’s a recipe for disaster for the Chargers defense, and I have serious doubts as to whether Philip Rivers and his depleted supporting cast will be able to keep pace.
Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Den -3, 43)
Recommendation: Tampa Bay +3
The Broncos are riding high after three straight wins to open the season, but a road trip to Tampa this week may prove to be trickier than most assume. Don’t let the Bucs’ 1-2 record fool you— this is a young team on the rise with an offense that can get the job done against anyone, even the big, bad Denver defense. Quarterback Jameis Winston is a budding star, and his go-to guy Mike Evans is essentially uncoverable due to his size and physicality. Winston’s 400-yard performance against a solid Rams defense last week was eye-opening to say the least, and his increasing level of comfort in Dirk Koetter’s offense is obvious to anyone who has been paying attention.
The Broncos have an excellent defense, no doubt, but it’s not impenetrable, and the Trevor Siemian-led Denver offense has failed to produce a 100-yard rusher and ranks 21st in total yards per game, so they’re not exactly keeping defensive coordinators up at night. I have a hunch that Siemian’s inexperience (reminder: this is only his second career road game) will surface on Sunday in the form of a couple of turnovers, and I like the Bucs to pull the upset here.
