While most of the golf world has already shifted their collective focus to Chambers Bay, site of next week’s U.S. Open, there’s $6 million up for grabs in Memphis this week, where TPC Southwind will host the FedEx St. Jude Classic for the 27th consecutive year. Ben Crane is the defending champion and can currently be backed at a whopping 142.0 at BETDAQ (Crane has been struggling lately, missing 8 cuts in his last 13 starts), while Dustin Johnson, the 7th-ranked player in the world, is the betting favorite at 8.2. Johnson has played very well this year, with six top-10 finishes and a victory, and he loves TPC Southwind, winning here back in 2010 and finishing no worse than 24th in three career appearances, but those odds are awful short, aren’t they?

We nearly hit one last week, but Justin Rose, who we had recommended at 21.0 on Wednesday, couldn’t quite close the deal at The Memorial and wound up losing to David Lingmerth in a playoff. Lingmerth was lights-out with the putter on Sunday and is a worthy champion, but a quick glance at the names who have won over the last three weeks– Chris Kirk, Steven Bowditch, and Lingmerth– tells you all you need to know about the unpredictable nature of the PGA Tour. Nearly anyone can win on any given week, which means– say it with me– TRADE OUT FOR A PROFIT WHEN YOU CAN! I say this as someone who hung on to Rose until the bitter end last week….

Here are this week’s selections:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Brooks Koepka (31.0)- I’ve recommended Koepka a couple of times this year– usually at longer odds than this– and it hasn’t yet worked out, but it’s hard not to be impressed by this guy on a week-to-week basis and TPC Southwind sets up nicely for him, as he proved last year by finishing 19th in his debut appearance. Though he’s becoming known for his prodigious length, Koepka has a well-rounded game and he’s been remarkably consistent this year, missing just one cut and notching six top-20 finishes in 11 events. He was on the way to another big paycheck at The Memorial last week before running into some trouble on Sunday, so there aren’t any concerns about the current state of his game. Koepka should be comfortable at Southwind and he’s one of the better players in the field this week– I feel good about jumping on at 30/1, and so should you.

Shawn Stefani (41.0)- Unlike Koepka, Stefani has never won on the PGA Tour, but based on the way his game has been trending over the past couple of months you have to think that first win is right around the corner. It could happen this week… after all, Stefani finished 7th here back in 2013, and TPC Southwind, with its abundance of Bermuda grass (well the greens and rough, anyway– the fairways are Zoysia) and frequently firm, fast, conditions, is very similar to the courses that Stefani grew up playing in his native Texas. Southwind is a Shawn Stefani kind of place, and the fact that Stefani has played very well in recent weeks, finishing 9th at the Wells Fargo and 19th at Colonial, makes him an attractive option at the current price.

Matt Every (92.0)- Like Stefani (and like Koepka too, for that matter), Every grew up in the South on Bermuda-covered courses, so he should feel very comfortable at TPC Southwind. And he apparently does feel quite comfortable, having finished 3rd here last year, only two shots behind winner Ben Crane. Every has been kind of quiet since his win at Bay Hill, with just one top-30 finish in his last six starts, but he’s only played once in the past month so his current form is a bit of an unknown. While that would certainly dissuade me from backing him if he were considered one of the favorites this week, I almost view it as a good thing in the current circumstances, as it has allowed Every’s odds to balloon up to a point where I consider him a good value. Don’t be surprised if he makes an appearance on the first page of the leaderboard this weekend.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Phil Mickelson (1.84) vs. Ryan Palmer (1.88)

Palmer is coming off a good week at the Byron Nelson, where he finished 10th and broke 70 in all four rounds, and he’s had great success at TPC Southwind in the past, finishing 3rd here in 2012 and 4th in 2013. Mickelson also has some good history at Southwind but he just played an awful two days of golf at The Memorial, shooting 78-75 over the weekend. His name is the only reason why he’s priced as the favorite here. Recommendation: Palmer at 1.88

Graeme McDowell (1.8) vs. Russell Knox (1.9)

McDowell just hasn’t put together a really good week of golf in a long time, with February’s Dubai Desert Classic– a European Tour event– marking the last time he’s recorded a top-25 finish on a major professional tour. Knox, meanwhile, has three top-25s in his last four starts, including an 18th-place showing at The Memorial last week. While he may fall far short in terms of career accolades, the straight-hitting Knox is simply a better player than McDowell at the moment and should be backed with confidence here. Recommendation: Knox at 1.9


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