The PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing moves on to Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week, where the Northern Trust Open, or some iteration of it (formerly the Nissan Open and the Los Angeles Open), has been held 52 times, including all but two years since 1973. This event generally boasts a strong field and this year is no exception, as five of the top-13 players in the world are scheduled to compete.
Riviera is one of those courses that tends to produce “big name” winners, with players like Bubba Watson (last year’s champion), Bill Haas, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, and Steve Stricker winning this event in the last decade. Ten former champions are in the field this week, including Watson, who has recored top-10 finishes in each of his last three starts and can currently be backed at 13.5 at BETDAQ.
While those odds are a little short for my liking, there are a few players out there who I believe are worth a bet. They are listed below, along with a couple of suggestions for the Round 1 three-ball betting:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Charl Schwartzel (38)- Rested, on-form, and playing a course that he’s obviously very comfortable on, Schwartzel should be considered one of the clear favorites this week and should absolutely be backed at nearly 40/1. He finished 5th in this event last year and 3rd in 2013, recording a 70, two 69s, four 68s and a 67 in his last eight competitive rounds at Riviera. He played some quality golf in January, finishing 2nd in the South African Open and 7th in the HSBC Abu Dhabi event, and this will be his first tournament in nearly a month, so fatigue won’t be an issue. Picking someone to win a golf tournament is always a bit of a longshot, but Schwartzel has as good a chance as anyone this week.
Webb Simpson (46)- Simpson is another guy with a great history at Riviera, never missing a cut here in his professional career and finishing 6th in 2013. He was a bit inconsistent in 2014, missing 6 cuts and failing to contend in any of the majors, but he’s been sharp in his only two tournaments this year, finishing 13th in Hawaii and 7th at the Humana. In Simpson’s last 16 competitive rounds he’s broken par 15 times and his stroke average is 67.6, so championship-level golf is clearly within his grasp. Can he finish the deal this week? At better than 40/1, I’m willing to pay to find out.
Charlie Beljan (80)- If you’re looking for a long odds, you could do a lot worse than Beljan, a West Coast guy who generally plays well this time of year and finished 3rd at the AT&T last week. Beljan has had plenty of success at Riviera, too, finishing 12th in this event last year and 2nd in 2013. Of course, Beljan has only one career win to his credit, so it would certainly be a bit of a surprise if he were left holding the trophy on Sunday evening, but he’s young, he’s played well recently, and he’s got an excellent track record at this course… worth a small bet, I believe.
1st Round 3-balls
Pat Perez (2.5) vs. Ricky Barnes (4) vs. Bernd Weisberger (2.24)
I’m not sure how many American golf fans realize how good Bernd Weisberger is, as the young Austrian has not yet made a name for himself on the PGA Tour. He’s doing just fine elsewhere, though, recording top-6 finishes in all four of his European Tour starts this year and climbing up to 38th in the latest world rankings. He’s simply the best player in this group and is a good value at 2.24, though Pat Perez’s stellar play last week will surely give potential Weisberger bettors some pause. Perez doesn’t have a particularly good history at Riviera, though, finishing outside the top-50 in 5 of his last 6 appearances, and Ricky Barnes can hardly break par these days (missed 3 of 4 cuts, made one paycheck since last October). Recommendation: Weisberger at 2.24
Sang-Moon Bae (2.38) vs. J.B. Holmes (2.24) vs. Justin Leonard (4.5)
Firstly, let’s eliminate Justin Leonard. He’s lost distance over the years and is no longer able to compete with the world’s top players. Over his last 7 events he’s missed four cuts and his best finish has been 44th. Can he beat both Bae and Holmes on Thursday? Sure, but it’s highly unlikely and not worth a bet, in my opinion. Looking at the other two, Holmes would seem like the obvious choice after recording back-to-back top-10 finishes in his last two events. However, he’s struggled at Riviera over the last two years, finishing 51st last year and missing the cut in 2013, while Sang-Moon Bae has been a regular presence near the top of the leaderboard (12th in 2014, 8th in 2013). Bae has been especially good on Thursdays and Fridays at Riviera, shooting opening rounds of 67-66 last year and 68-65 in 2013. And while his recent results haven’t been quite as flashy as Holmes’, he’s made 4 of his last 5 cuts and has had two weeks to prepare for this event. Recommendation: Bae at 2.38
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