THE MEMORIAL: The PGA Tour heads to Ohio this week for Jack Nicklaus’s Memorial Tournament, an event that is generally regarded as one of the most significant non-majors in the world of golf and, for many, the final dress rehearsal before the U.S. Open in two weeks.
Aside from its place on the calendar, there are a couple of reasons why this tournament is a must-stop for many of the game’s elite: the Golden Bear himself is always on hand, and if you didn’t finish in the top 75 of the PGA Tour’s money list the previous season, a personal invitation from Nicklaus is your only way into the field. Many players show up because this is Jack’s tournament, and I expect the field will weaken once he is no longer involved, just as Bay Hill has suffered a bit since Arnie’s unfortunate passing.
But the venue also plays a major role in this tournament’s success, as Muirfield Village Golf Club, a Nicklaus design, is one of the most highly-regarded courses on Tour. It’s a lush, hilly track in the outskirts of Columbus, and it has hosted this event since its inception in 1976. Measuring nearly 7,400 yards, it’s certainly not short, and we’ve seen “bombers” succeed here before, but length off the tee is not a prerequisite for success. You must hit the fairways, however, because the rough at Muirfield Village is thick and penal, much like what the players will face at Erin Hills in a couple of weeks. Fortunately, the fairways are not overly narrow and are usually pretty receptive. The greens, on the other hand, are small, undulating, and surrounded by difficult rough and bunkering. Precision iron play will be at a premium this week, as it always is at Muirfield Village, and scrambling ability is vital. Is it a surprise, then, that Tiger Woods, a man who is surely in the market for a chauffeur at the moment, has won this tournament five times?
Dustin Johnson heads BETDAQ’s Win Market at 7.2, and he’s awfully tempting, even at a price like that. He’s followed by the likes of Jon Rahm (13.5), Jordan Spieth (14.5), and Jason Day (16.5), while players like Adam Scott (24.0), Rickie Fowler (29.0), and Justin Thomas (47.0) lurk a bit further down the market. In other words, it’s a stacked field, one that features 10 of the top 15 in the latest world golf rankings. Here are a few recommendations:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Matt Kuchar (38.0)- There is normally no more consistent player on Tour than Kuchar, but he went through an unusual stretch early this year in which he missed four cuts in a ten-event span. That caused him to fall off the radar for some, but those who have been paying attention know that he’s back in top form now, with four top-15 finishes in his last six starts, including a T12 at Colonial last week and a 9th-place showing at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago. He’s feasted on Muirfield Village over the years, recording a win, a runner-up finish, and several other impressive results– including a T4 last year– in 11 career appearances at this event. So he’s always a threat when he tees it up in this tournament, and this year he just happens to be catching it at a time when his game is on the upswing. I haven’t backed Kuchar yet this season, but I’m quite enthusiastic about him this week at a price like 38.0
Byeong Hun An (78.0)- An has been rolling along quite nicely this year, going 12/12 in cuts made on the PGA Tour and finishing in the top-25 in both of his European Tour starts. But he’s really turned it up lately, registering top-10s in each of his last two events: an 8th-place showing at the Wells Fargo, and then a T5 at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago. His ball-striking is always top-notch, but he’s made a few more putts over these last few weeks, and anytime he catches a little heat with the flat stick he’s tough to beat. You would think that an iron player of his caliber would like it at Muirfield Village, and An sure seemed comfortable here in his debut appearance last year, improving his score in every round (71-70-69-67) and going on to finish 11th. At nearly 80/1, there may not be a better value on the board this week.
Bill Haas (102.0)- Haas is a bit of a wild card this week because he went through a difficult stretch after the Masters, missing three consecutive cuts and breaking par just once in six competitive rounds. But he re-emerged last week with a good performance at Colonial, finishing 12th despite shooting a 1-over 71 on Sunday. He’s always at his best on ball-striker’s layouts, and Muirfield Village certainly qualifies, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that Haas has recorded three top-20s in his last four appearances at this event, including a T8 in 2014 and a T4 in 2013. A win this week would fit right in with Haas’s career pattern: somewhat inconsistent and not an every-week contender, but capable of brilliance when he’s right, and not afraid of playing his best in the biggest tournaments. He’s certainly worth a shot at better than 100/1.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jason Day (1.8) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (2.0)
It’s been a bumpy ride for Day this year, but his game appears to be on the mend after a near-miss at the Byron Nelson, where a 3rd-round 63 propelled him to a runner-up finish. He’s not a fan of Muirfield Village, however, never finding the top 25 in eight career appearances here. Matsuyama, on the other hand, has a history of achievement at this tournament that includes a win in 2014 and a T5 in 2015. He’s only played once since his 11th-place showing at the Masters, logging a T22 at the Players Championship, so he should be rested and ready for a big week. Recommendation: Matsuyama at 2.0
Jordan Spieth (1.9) vs. Jon Rahm (1.9)
Spieth has made the cut in all four of his trips to Muirfield Village, with a 3rd-place finish in 2015 standing out as his best performance. He seems like a natural fit for the course, with his excellent scrambling ability, elite putting touch, and superior short and mid-iron play, so you would expect that he would win here before his career is finished. He’s also coming off a runner-up finish at Colonial, though it should be noted that he had missed the cut in three of his previous four starts. Jon Rahm has never seen Muirfield Village. He’s never played this tournament. He’s only won once as a professional, while Spieth has already started collecting majors. But Rahm is an ascending phenom, a golfing machine that seems to become more powerful with each passing week, and could very well become unbeatable in the not-too-distant future. Rahm shared runner-up honors with Spieth at Colonial last week, and he’s certainly been the more consistent player over the past several months. Recommendation: Rahm at 1.9
