TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP: The PGA Tour makes its annual stop in Connecticut this week, as the Travelers Championship returns to its usual spot on the calendar after moving to August last year to accommodate the Olympics. The week after a major always seems a bit subdued on Tour, but this tournament, much like the RBC Heritage, has embraced its role as a laid back, mid-tier event that is still a regular stop for many veteran players.

The straight-hitting Russell Knox returns to defend his title and is currently trading at a generous 114.0 at BETDAQ, but he’s really been struggling lately, with two missed cuts in his last four starts and no top-30 finishes since April, so even a triple-digit price isn’t enough to draw my interest. Knox isn’t the only former champion in the field, of course, and marquee players like Spieth, Day, and McIlroy will be teeing it up this week, so there are plenty of attractive options out there.

TPC River Highlands will serve as the host venue for the 27th consecutive year; it’s a par-70 that is very short by Tour standards, measuring just 6,841 yards, and is usually very playable, with the winner reaching double-digits under par every year since 2000 and 20-under three times in that span. The two par-5s are essentially long par-4s for the bigger hitters, and the 15th hole is a drivable risk/reward par-4, so scoring opportunities abound. That being said, the greens can be difficult to find if the conditions turn firm and fast, and sunshine is expected all week. That means things could get tricky by the weekend, and it’s worth noting that this tournament has seen some massive final-round comebacks in recent years.

Our luck has run dry since striking gold with Brian Harman at the Wells Fargo last month, but I have a sneaking feeling that this week is going to be a good one. Here are my suggestions:

WIN MARKET

Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)

Justin Thomas (17.0)- Only Spieth and McIlroy are saddled with shorter odds than Thomas this week, and as far as I’m concerned that’s two guys too many, especially since this will be the debut appearance at this event for both Jordan and Rory. Thomas put up a good fight at Erin Hills last week, shooting 63 on Saturday before eventually tying for ninth, his second consecutive top-10 finish. He’s now registered seven top-10s this season, including three victories, and he’s clearly back in top form after a brief cold spell following his T5 at the WGC-Mexico. The last time he saw TPC River Highlands it took him just 62 shots to get around, and his 3rd-place showing in this event last year would’ve likely been an easy victory had it not been for a balky putter in rounds 1 and 2. With momentum on his side this year and a game that seems to be firing on all cylinders, I rate Thomas as the favorite this week.

Brendan Steele (37.0)- Steele is one of those solid and steady players who probably doesn’t get quite enough credit for what he’s done over the past couple of years. He’s currently 13th in the FedEx Cup standings, ahead of players such as Sergio Garcia, Justin Rose, and Jason Dufner, and he tasted victory earlier this season at the Safeway Open. He’s coming off a solid week at Erin Hills, finishing 13th, and just three starts ago he tied for 6th at the Players Championship. Critically, he has an excellent record at this tournament, with five top-25s in six career appearances and a T5 in 2014, when he opened with a 62. So Steele checks all the boxes this week– current form, course history, fair price. At nearly 40/1, he may be my favorite bet on the board.

Jim Furyk (100.0)- Furyk is at the point in his career when many are wondering if he’ll ever win again, but at age 47 he can still compete with anybody on the right course. And at less than 6,900 yards from the tips, TPC River Highlands is certainly the type of place where he can still score. But it’s more than just the length of the course that should have you optimistic about Furyk’s chances this week– just last year he turned heads with a final round 58 (!) at this event, setting the new mark for the lowest round in PGA Tour history. And despite some struggles over the past couple of months, Furyk looked good at Erin Hills, shooting par or better in three of the four rounds and going on to finish 23rd. I know he’s a bit of a longshot here, but with the confidence gleaned from last week’s performance and the return to a place where he has some (recent) good memories, Furyk is dangerous this week, much more dangerous than his price would suggest.

TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS

Jordan Spieth (1.91) vs. Rory McIlroy (1.91)

This will be the first Travelers Championship appearance for both of these guys, but TPC River Highlands is the type of course that they should both eat up. Spieth in particular seems like a good fit, considering his relative lack of distance won’t hurt him this week and he should have plenty of chances with the mid-to-short irons, which is where he excels. Though the turf is different– bentgrass as opposed to Bermuda– many have compared River Highlands to Colonial, where Spieth was runner-up four weeks ago. McIlroy could win this event by five shots and I don’t think anyone would be all that surprised, but it’s hard to back him with much confidence after his last two starts, a missed cut at last week’s U.S. Open and a T35 at the Players Championship. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.91

Bubba Watson (1.91) vs. Daniel Berger (1.91)

TPC River Highlands has been Bubba Watson’s personal playground over the years, as he has two victories and a runner-up at this tournament, plus several other good finishes. He’s having a terrible season, however, with six missed cuts in his past nine starts and only one top-25 since January. I don’t care how well you know a course– when you don’t know where the ball is going it’s tough to score, and Bubba has had a difficult time with his ball-striking over the last several months. Berger, on the other hand, is coming off a win in Memphis two weeks ago and has now recorded six top-20 finishes this season. Plus, he was strong last year in his debut appearance at this event, finishing fifth. Recommendation: Berger at 1.91