The PGA Tour moves to Texas this week, where the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio will once again host the Valero Texas Open. This event has been held in San Antonio since its inception in 1922, with the current venue being used since 2010. High winds and firm conditions are trademarks of the Texas Open, and as a result the scores have been fairly high over the past few years, with Zach Johnson’s win five years ago marking the last time a player has finished the tournament at 10-under par or better.
Steven Bowditch triumphed last year despite a final-round 76, which was the highest final-round score for a PGA Tour winner since Vijay Singh’s victory at the 2004 PGA Championship. Bowditch is back to defend, and if you think he can do it you’ll be quite happy with the astronomically long odds he’s been saddled with at BETDAQ (230).
Speaking of long odds, we narrowly missed a huge payday last week when Matt Jones, who we tipped at nearly 200/1 (190) in this column last Wednesday, finished just two shots behind winner Matt Every at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hopefully those of you who went along with us were able to trade out for a nice profit on Sunday.
Here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jimmy Walker (25)- Walker hasn’t played much over the past month, taking the last couple of weeks off after finishing 31st at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. He’s off to a great start this season, though, making all seven of his cuts and picking up a victory at the Sony Open back in January. Moreover, this is essentially a “home game” for Walker, who resides in the San Antonio suburb of Boerne. He has played this event ten times, finishing third in 2010 and 16th last year, so he’s as familiar with the course and conditions as anyone in the field. Walker should be primed and ready to contend this week, making him a nice value at the current price.
Matt Kuchar (26)- Kuchar has a great history in this event, finishing 4th last year, 22nd in 2013, and 13th in 2012. So, clearly, this is a player who feels comfortable at TPC San Antonio. Of course, Kuchar has proven that he feels comfortable pretty much anywhere, recording top-30 finishes in eight of his past nine PGA Tour starts. He seems particularly well-suited for this tournament, though, as he’s one of the top wind players in the world and has made no secret of his fondness for Bermuda grass, the turf he learned on as a kid and the stuff that covers TPC San Antonio. Kuchar will be hovering around the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday, as he seemingly always does, and he’s got as good a chance as anybody to be left standing with the trophy when all is said and done.
Fredrik Jacobson (114)- The Swede is up to his old tricks again, ranking 5th in strokes gained/putting on the PGA Tour this season. Say what you want about the man they call Freddie, but the guy can roll the rock. He’s also been a veritable cash register at this event, recording three top-5 finishes (’09, ’10, ’11) and finishing 21st or better in all seven of his starts here (!!). He hasn’t been contending over the past few weeks but he’s made the cut in three of his last four events, so he’s playing relatively well. If there’s ever a week to invest in Freddie Jacobson, it’s this week on this golf course. And at better than 100-to-1 on your money, it’s an investment that could pay off handsomely.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Jordan Spieth (1.8) vs. Dustin Johnson (2)
Dustin Johnson was last seen on a golf course winning the WGC-Cadillac Championship, an event that features one of the strongest fields in golf, so it may surprise some people that he’s a slight underdog here. The “other” guy is pretty good in his own right, though, as Jordan Spieth also won the last time he teed it up (at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago) and has recorded top-10 finishes in five of his last seven starts. Plus, Spieth is a native Texan who finished 10th at this event last year, while Johnson has never played TPC San Antonio in competition. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.8
Harris English (1.91) vs. Brendan Steele (1.91)
Steele is a former Valero Texan Open champion (2011) who has played well this season, making the cut in all ten of his events and finishing 2nd in January’s Humana Challenge. English has been playing some pretty good golf himself, following up a red-hot start to the year (3rd in Hawaii, 2nd at the Farmers) with a top-10 at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago and a solid four rounds at Bay Hill, where he finished 29th. English has made the cut in both of his Texas Open appearances, and though Steele is a former champion, he missed the cut here last year. Remember also that English is currently ranked 53rd in the world and the top-50 in the World Rankings qualify for The Masters, so this is a huge week for him. I like his chances. Recommendation: English at 1.91
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