WELLS FARGO CHAMPIONSHIP: While last week’s experimentation with team golf was certainly interesting and seemed to be generally well-received, the PGA Tour makes a welcome return to normalcy this week with the Wells Fargo Championship, an event that has become a player favorite and has drawn a typically strong field this year.
The headliner is Dustin Johnson, who will be teeing it up for the first time since his mysterious Masters-week injury (am I the only one who finds the story of a stone-cold sober DJ “falling down the stairs” a bit… suspicious?). He’s on a personal three-tournament winning streak and is the clear favorite at BETDAQ, where he’s trading at 5.9 at the time of this writing, but there’s a considerable amount of uncertainly floating around him this week, and I don’t feel there’s much value in the current price. It’s not like he’s the only elite player in the field, either: Jon Rahm, Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Bill Haas, and Paul Casey are among the big names who have made the trip to North Carolina, and none of those guys are coming off a back injury and a six-week layoff.
There’s another thing to consider: this year’s tournament will not be held at its usual home, Quail Hollow, a familiar venue to the players due to the fact that it has hosted this event every year since its inception. Quail Hollow will be the site of the PGA Championship in August, so this tournament has been moved, temporarily, to the coastal town of Wilmington (a beautiful place, by the way), where the Tom Fazio-designed Eagle Point Golf Club awaits.
Fazio is regarded by many as the best course architect in the business, and Eagle Point is supposedly a gem, a 7,473-yard par-72 that straddles the Intracoastal Waterway and is regularly ranked as one of the best courses in the Carolinas. It should be more than suitable as a stopgap venue, but it means that “course history” will not be part of the equation when handicapping this week’s field, which may make the top of the market a bit more risky than usual.
So where does that leave us? There are no easy answers, especially when you’re dealing with a first-time venue and a quality field, but after a good, long look I think we’ve come up with three names that are worth a bet:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jon Rahm (13.5)- I’ve made no secret of my belief that Rahm will win multiple times this year and dozens of times over the course of his career. The guy is an absolute phenom, an ascendant superstar who hits it nine miles, has soft hands, and seems to have the proper disposition for competitive golf– never too high or too low, and always viewing the glass as half-full. The last time we backed him it worked out quite well, as he finished runner-up in the Match Play and made a tidy profit for those who got aboard at 30.0. I said at the time that I believe Rahm should be backed anywhere, anytime at a price like 30.0, and with his current trajectory I think it’s going to be awhile before we see odds like that next to his name again. The price is a little short this week, and Rahm hasn’t teed it up since his somewhat disappointing 27th-place showing at the Masters (hard to believe you can say that about a first-time Masters participant who has been a pro for less than a year, but it’s true, and it speaks to the reputation that Rahm is already carving out). That being said, he has the advantage of being on equal footing with everyone else this week, as nobody has seen the course. This is a rare thing for Rahm in his brief pro career– he usually beats guys on courses that they know very well and he’s seeing for the first time– and for me, it’s good enough. You give me Rahm in a situation like this at better than 12/1, and I’ll take it.
William McGirt (49.0)- McGirt is a North Carolina native who spent much of his early professional career playing mini-tours in and around the Carolinas, so this is a “home game” of sorts for him. And he seems to be catching it at a great time, as he’s coming off his best performance of the year, a 3rd-place showing at the PGA Tour’s other Carolina springtime stop: the RBC Heritage. Prior to that he had a good week at the Masters, tying for 22nd, and he’s now logged six top-30 finishes in his last ten starts, so he’s getting used to being in the mix. And considering his lone win on Tour came at the 2016 Memorial, an event that is known for the strength of its field, I think it’s safe to say that he won’t be overwhelmed by the moment this week, or by the possibility of big names on the leaderboard. I’ve got a good feeling about McGirt here and feel he should be backed enthusiastically at his current price.
Brian Harman (100.0)- While he doesn’t get much publicity and could probably walk into any grocery store in America unrecognized, Harman has quietly developed into a solid player over the past few years, proving to skeptics that his 2014 win at the John Deere Classic was no fluke and showing signs lately that the next breakthrough might not be too far off. A Georgia native who played collegiately at UGA, Harman generally plays his best golf in the Southeast, and Eagle Point fits the profile of the type of course where he usually excels. A tremendous putter who currently ranks 11th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting, he’ll feel right at home on the Eagle Point greens, which, according to the players who have been sharing their amazement on social media this week, are extremely fast and absolutely pristine. “Augusta National-like” is how they’ve been described. Most importantly, Harman is playing really well at the moment, having recorded two top-15s in his last three starts– a T9 at the RBC Heritage, and a 13th-place showing at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I’m telling you: Harman is a definite threat this week and is well worth a bet at a price like 100.0.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Kevin Kisner (1.91) vs. Phil Mickelson (1.91)
Mickelson has a great record in this event, but all of that success came at Quail Hollow, so it doesn’t mean much this week. This will be his first start since the Masters and he hasn’t been great lately, registering just one top-20 since February. Kisner, meanwhile, has finished 11th or better in 5 of his past 7 starts, and he’s coming off a runner-up finish in New Orleans last week, where he holed a dramatic pitch shot on the 72nd hole to force a playoff that he and partner Scott Brown would eventually lose. Not only is he playing great golf right now, but he’s a Carolina native who thrives in this area of the country. Recommendation: Kisner at 1.91
Bill Haas (1.91) vs. Wesley Bryan (1.91)
Haas is a proven, steady player who strikes the ball extremely well, especially the mid-to-long irons. He doesn’t putt particularly well, however, while Bryan can really roll the rock, as he showed in his win at Harbour Town a couple of weeks ago. Like Jon Rahm, Bryan is used to competing on courses that are unfamiliar to him but familiar to his competitors, so this week will be a welcome change in that regard. Haas may be the “bigger name” here and he’s certainly more accomplished, but I’ll take my chances on the young guy with the hot putter who’s fresh off a win. Recommendation: Bryan at 1.91
