The Scottish Open generally features a strong field and this year’s edition is no exception, as 22 of the world’s top 60 players will be teeing it up at Gullane this week. There is, however, one notable absence: world number one Rory McIlroy was forced to withdraw after sustaining an ankle injury while playing soccer, and his status for next week’s Open Championship is very much in doubt.
While McIlroy’s unfortunate situation has been the dominant storyline over the last couple of days, the golf course should be able to steal some of those headlines once Thursday rolls around. This is the first time Gullane has ever hosted a Scottish Open, but it’s a venerable old course that has seen its share of big events, most recently the Scottish Amateur in 2010. There are three courses at Gullane, called simply No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3, and a composite of courses 1 and 2 will be used for the tournament, with most of the action taking place on famed No. 1. The course will measure around 7,200 yards for tournament play, meaning length off the tee will not be as much of a priority this week, and it’s a true links, so players who are well-versed in links golf should be at an advantage.
Justin Rose is the defending champion after holding off Kristoffer Broberg at Royal Aberdeen last year, and he’s listed as the favorite at BETDAQ at 15.5, followed by Phil Mickelson (22.0) and Branden Grace (23.0). Grace has seen some action on the exchange and he could be one to watch based on his recent form and his stellar record on links-style courses. As for me, though, I’ll be investing in these gentlemen:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Shane Lowry (26.0)- I was on Lowry at Chambers Bay and he played quite nicely, giving the leaders a scare for awhile before finishing 9th. He followed that up with another solid performance at the BMW International and he took last week off, so he should be rested and ready. Plus, Lowry loves the golf in Scotland, where he’s logged top-10 finishes in each of his past four starts, including a T4 in this tournament last year. Don’t be surprised if the Irishman picks up his first victory of 2015 this week.
Marc Warren (60.0)- Warren played poorly in France last week, missing the cut after a pair of 76s, but he’s been a good bounce-back player throughout his career and his recent results at the U.S. Open (27th) and the BMW PGA (18th) suggest that good golf isn’t far off. And remember, Warren loves his national open, finishing 3rd in this tournament in two of the past three years. Another thing to consider– Gullane is renowned for the condition of its greens, which have the reputation of being excellent surfaces for a links course, and Warren is one of the very best putters in the world, as he currently ranks 2nd on the European Tour in both putts per round and putts per GIR.
Emiliano Grillo (60.0)- Like Warren, Grillo missed the cut in France last week, which has probably scared off some prospective bettors. This is a new week and a new course, though, and the young Grillo had played some beautiful golf prior to last week, finishing 38th or better in 12 consecutive events. The Argentinean seems to play some of his best golf in windy conditions, making him a natural fit for links golf, and he looked fairly comfortable the last time we saw him on a links course, opening with a 69 and finishing 30th at Royal County Down six weeks ago. Grillo’s performance last week has perhaps created some value here, and I’m more than happy to hop aboard at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Soren Kjeldsen (1.91) vs. Ryan Palmer (1.91)
Palmer hasn’t played since the U.S. Open, where he finished 52nd, but his low, piercing ball flight should be ideal for links golf and he made the cut at Royal Aberdeen last year, so he should be prepared for some of the challenges that await him this week. That being said, I’m certainly not backing him against Soren Kjeldsen, a man who is playing the best golf of his career and who just won on a links-style course a few weeks ago. The straight-hitting Kjeldsen should feel right at home at Gullane. Recommendation: Kjeldsen at 1.91
Tommy Fleetwood (1.91) vs. B.H. An (1.91)
An has impressed everyone with his play over the past few weeks, winning the BMW PGA and recording four additional top-25 finishes in his last six events. However, he certainly can’t match Fleetwood’s experience with links golf, and Fleetwood has been playing pretty well himself, finishing 27th or better in each of his last four events and ranking 5th on Tour in Greens in Regulation. I think An’s value may have peaked; it would be surprising if he were able to beat Fleetwood on this golf course. Recommendation: Fleetwood at 1.91
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