GRAB 31.0 BETDAQ VALUE! Shamrock leaps in at the deep end for 31.0 offers in the swim for the big race at Newmarket. He previews all seven events on the card at Tipperary.
TWO LAYS UP OUT OF THREE: Shamrock broke even last night when he gambled on getting three lays out of three. He landed two but the third won at 2-1. It was a double blow since Shamrock had tipped the gambled-on runner-up. His next best, Sunset Beauty (WON 13-2), scored at rewarding odds.
A Ballydoyle Classic-placed three-year-old at 31.0? Give me some of that! In the frame in the Irish Guineas and in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, Oracle was 31.0 on Betdaq this morning for the July Cup at Newmarket. I’ll squat on top of the Dublin needle if that isn’t value.
2.10 Tipperary: Third in the Racing Post Trophy, fourth in the Moyglare: that’s what this opener has thrown up in the last two years, so you’d expect a strong two-year-old stable – Ballydoyle or Coolcullen – to win it.
Aidan O’Brien’s East Meets West is entered in the National Stakes, as is Furners Green, who looks the class-act colt on breeding, but Gentleman Jim Bolger will be hoping that Lowther Stakes entry Siansa, a daughter of Teofilo, will do as well, if not better than, Teolane.
2.40 Tipperary: Single-figure stalls are favoured, which doesn’t help Bolger’s Heir To The Mint. They’re claiming off The Educator and worried about the ground.
The surface will suit Orpens Peach, drawn 4, but I prefer Daisy Mountain in stall 3. The grey filly had The Educator well behind at Naas under Fran Berry, who is the leading jockey on today’s course.
3.10 Tipperary: They are shouting Alnashmy because he beat the 105-rated Curragh 2,000 Guineas sixth Zabarajad over this course and distance and the handicapper reacted by putting him on today’s 93.
But Zabarajad seems to have been vastly overrated by his Guineas effort and, only last night at Gowran, he scraped home only a head over the 78-rated President Lincoln.
That would make Alnashmy only about 80 or 81, giving him little chance here with the other three-year-olds, who are 3-1 up in this race since its inception.
Deire Na Sli is an extraordinary bridesmaid, in the first three 10 times but with just the one win. She and the oddly-named gelding Honey of A Kitten – second and third at Naas in the early Spring – are claimed off and my inference is that Tommy Stack is the only trainer showing any confidence.
Certainly his Great Huzzar stepped up considerably last time at Roscommon after looking very green on his reappearance. Worth an old punt.
3.40 Tipperary: Local trainer David Wachman has had eight two-year-old winners this year and is running at a 27% strike rate, with the Excellent Art filly Experience (3.40) already a Group-3 scorer; drops to a Listed here.
But the jockey switches to the other Wachman runner, Requinto, though he was last of five at Naas behind subsequent Railway Stakes winner Lilbourne Lad.
From their running style, you’d expect to see Requinto try to make all, with Experience running at her in the final furlong. Play the market if you can.
4.15 Tipperary: Three-year-olds are 3-0 up in the runnings of this race and should make it four today, with the handicapper saying that Brazilian Breeze has 11lb in hand.
4.45 Tipperary: Mt Weather did me a favour at Bellewstown a week or so back and he won this race last season (4.45).
The 2009 winner, Ucanchoose, runner-up last year, is now weighted to dead-heat with Mt Weather; he is also a last-time-out winner and has the better draw. Bank On Black has won here, but on firm ground.
5.15 Tipperary: The big owners want this EBF Maiden: the Aga Khan with Sinnamara, Michael Tabor with Poinsettia, and Kirsten Rausing with the highly-regarded newcomer Alabelle, bred to win a street.
Alabelle is the big whisper, but I had one yesterday – Saint Gervais – and watched the money force it down to favourite. Second! Isn’t it always the way of it.
SHAMROCK’S BETS
NAP: Daisy Mountain (2.40 Tipperary)
NEXT BEST: Great Hussar (3.10 Tipperary)
OUTSIDER: Oracle (3.35 Newmarket)
DAQ TRIO: Daisy Mountain (2.40 Tipperary), Great Hussar (3.10 Tipperary), Alabelle (5.15 Tipperary)
