Before we look at Thursday night’s NFL battle between Tampa Bay and Minnesota, let’s not forget that there’s a big Wembley clash between the New England Patriots and the St Louis Rams on Sunday.
You never know, this huge event might even warrant a paragraph in the Mail on Sunday – heaven forbid it won’t be at the expense of another double-page spread about a diver (a diver! ) named Tom Daley. And as for their obscure fascination with a biker by the name of Cal Crutchlow… sometimes you’re left wondering what the state of British sports’ journalism has come to.
For all those people who don’t really understand American Football – yes, I’m looking at you, British newspaper sports editors (those who gleefully snaffle free press passes, moan about the length of the game and then think a picture of a cheerleader will suffice as ‘coverage’) – here are a few reasons why we, the growing number of real fans, kneel at the NFL altar.
The uncertainty: There are many certainties in soccer. For instance, one of only four teams will win the Premier League (yawn) one of only two teams will win the Spanish league (zzZzz) and only one of… er … one team (a clue: it’s not Rangers) will win the Scottish league. Rarely there is a blowout in the NFL and most of the games come down to the end. (It is a given that the Cleveland Browns will invariably be bad most weeks, though).
The weather: We had to laugh at the irony of Englishmen going to Poland and not being allowed to work, because it rained. But unless there is a plague of locusts or lightning, the NFL games go on, whatever the weather.
Video technology: So, it might sometimes seemingly be manned by imbeciles (we hear you, Green Bay) but generally it cuts out most of the controversy that seemingly exists on a weekly basis in the Premier League. As for the yellow line, which is a guide to the first-down marker, is it ever wrong?
Socialism beats capitalism: The NFL is the only business where socialism works. The NFL literally shares the wealth. TV is their biggest source of revenue, and they put all of it in a big commie pot and split it 32 ways (between the 32 teams). The rich support the poor. The team with the worst record gets the first choice of the best college talent in the draft, while the team that wins the Super Bowl gets to pick last. Contrast this with soccer’s Premier League, where the wealthiest teams buy the best players, pay the biggest salaries and say ‘to hell with the rest’. Some call it sport. Others find it boring.
Salary cap: Over 50 English Football League teams have gone into administration or gone bust in the last 25 years, thanks to spending more than their income. European champions Chelsea announced annual losses of £67.7 million. FIFA say the collective debt among European clubs of £7 billion.
Meanwhile, each NFL team is limited to how much money it can pay their squad of players. You decide if the salary cap works or not.
Betting: It is a blessing and a curse. In soccer you have the problem of three results; home, away or draw. In the NFL, you have the option of a home win or an away win. That’s the blessing. But rather than take skinny odds for a sometimes heavy favourite, you can get more generous odds by betting on a points handicap, which is designed to give each team a theoretical, near-even chance of winning. That’s the curse. And it makes it so much harder to pick a winner of an NFL game compared to a Premier League game.
Oddly, the NFL distances itself from gambling, which drives the sport. Some cynics believe that the odds-makers themselves run the sport. Hardly surprising when you consider the first of the Mara family to own the New York Giants, and the builder of the family fortune, was gambler/bookmaker Tim Mara. His great friend Art Rooney, head of the Pittsburgh Steelers, was also a heavy gambler.
The importance: Unlike in soccer, NFL teams only get 16 chances. Every game in a season is equivalent to almost three English Championship soccer games, 10 baseball games and almost two and a half Premier League games.
The reliability: None of this 12 noon, 5.45pm, 7.30pm, 7.45pm, 8pm malarkey. Soccer fans used to know where they stood at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon. No longer. Now there’s a potpourri of confusing kick-off times. At least with NFL games, you know it will be 6.03pm (GMT) for the majority of Sunday games.
No shirt advertising: While I have received one as a present, I’ve not bought a soccer shirt since 1983 because of the awful advertising logos splashed across the front. NFL shirts are much cooler because they do not carry advertising.
Victor Cruz’s Salsa dance: While it may not beat Wayne Rooney swearing at a TV camera, the New York Giants wide receiver’s touchdown celebration is unique. And his granny taught him to salsa. Bless him.
Better analysis: Mike Carlson or Harry Redknapp? Mike Carlson or Jamie Redknapp? (Not really fair fight, is it?).
Cheerleaders: How could we forget them? They add a touch of glamour to proceedings. Soccer needs to learn the Marketing 101: Sex sells. Fact: Most soccer fans are red-blooded heterosexuals. Get over it.
Here’s what we learned from Week 7
Tennessee may be right back in the thick of things at 3-4 after two wins in a row, but their defence isn’t scaring anyone.
Cleveland are justified favourites for the No1 draft pick. They can’t win close games (3-9 under Pat Shurmer in games settled by seven points or fewer). Shurmer is a lame duck head coach and might not survive the season.
New England will sort out their problems. Not necessarily their defensive woes, but their spluttering offense will catch fire when it matters – in late November and December.
Buffalo are falling fast. Weighed down by the stack of money he’s stuffed down his shirt, Mario Williams is a major problem why the Bills’ defence is not producing. They may be 3-4, but Houston and New England come next.
St Louis are who we thought they were. The Rams have a bright future with plenty of good, young players. But there is now plenty of tape on the rookies and they are being out-schemed on a regular basis. New England followed by San Francisco means the learning curve is about to get steeper.
Seattle are playoff contenders. While they lost to San Francisco, five of their last seven games are at home and their defence continues to shove my words right down my throat. I’m starting to believe.
Atlanta need to experience a loss. Look what it did for Houston. After getting the bejeezus knocked out of them by Green Bay, the Texans whacked Baltimore. Unbeaten Atlanta have not played well in two games heading into last week’s bye. Is the pressure of staying undefeated getting to them?
San Francisco’s caterers must be good. Better than Minnesota’s clearly, since Randy Moss – who took umbrage with the Vikings’ locker-room buffet – looks a happy camper. How long will it last? As long as Alex Smith keeps feeding him.
Carolina have serious problems after losing to Dallas. Not least Cam Newton’s choice of pullover – a brown David Starsky affair made out of what appeared to be an Ewok’s pelt. The departure of GM Marty Hurney on Monday is unlikely to change things in the short term. Newton was animated and miserable in the post-game press conference. While some of his comments may have sounded a little raw, he clearly feels responsible and is fed up with losing. But for showing leadership, a poor attire, and a glum assessment of the direction the franchise is heading, we dedicate this edition of the Musical Interlude to Cam…
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings (Sky Sports HD)
Thursday night games are one of the more annoying aspects in the NFL. The players hate them, as it gives just three days’ rest between games, then usually a 10-day break before the next contest.
It is one of the experiments that hasn’t really worked.
This Thursday’s clash sees one of the most surprising teams of the season, the Minnesota Vikings, taking on one of the season’s enigmas, Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers have not been blown out by anyone. They lost to the New York Giants 41-34, the Dallas Cowboys 16-10, the Washington Redskins 24-22 and the New Orleans Saints 35-28. The Bucs defeated the Carolina Panthers 16-10 and the Kansas City Chiefs 38-10 to give them a 2-4 record.
The Minnesota Vikings remain right there with the Chicago Bears at the top of the NFC North Division following a gritty win over the Arizona Cardinals, but they might find running the ball a little more problematic than they have recently.
Tampa’s run defence, led by defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, ranks third in the NFL, conceding just 76 yards per game. Conversely, their pass defence ranks 31st in the league, conceding 323 yards per game.
Yet Christian Ponder looked decidedly shaky against a good Arizona defence on Sunday and he will have to play much better if Minnesota are to win.
The Vikings are 6.5-point favourites on the BETDAQ handicap and the points total line is set at 41.5. The last time Minnesota beat the Bucs by more than seven points was 11 meetings ago, back in September in 1998 (a 31-7 drubbing in the Metrodome).
The loss of suspended cornerback Aqib Talib is a major blow for the Buccaneers, who have won six of their last seven games against Minnesota, including on their last two visits. But whether Ponder can take advantage of the Tampa turmoil is open to argument.
The home team is 5-1 on Thursdays this season, but Tampa quarterback Josh Freeman, fresh off a 420-yard day against New Orleans, will be confident. The Bucs amassed 513 yards total offense, the second-highest in franchise history, and Vincent Jackson had seven receptions for a team-record 216 yards against the Saints.
And while Ponder is no Drew Brees, he will look at the Bucs’ defence which gave up touchdown drives of 80, 80, 79 and 72 yards on four consecutive possessions in the opening half on Sunday, and be smacking his chops.
It is a nasty handicap line, but despite Tampa’s good recent record over the Vikings, the hosts should be able to exploit Tampa’s shaky pass defence, particularly with tight end Kyle Rudolph, and we will be able to see how much Ponder has progressed.
Suggestions
Back – Minnesota -6.5
Back – Over 41.5 points in total
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Week 7: 8-6
Twitter: @simonmilham
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
