The NFL is effectively two seasons – the regular season and the post season – and should always be treated as such for betting purposes. That’s why we offer a pre-season preview.
We all pick our idea of division winners and our potential Super Bowl teams at the beginning of the season. The hope is that our outright picks get into the playoffs, enabling us to possibly trade for a profit and take another view at the knockout stage.
It’s a nice plan and doesn’t always work.
Fortunately, we managed to correctly predict six of the eight division winners.
Our pre-season Super Bowl selections were New England, Green Bay, Atlanta and San Diego (two from each conference) and the Patriots, Packers and Falcons all made the post season.
We have the option of taking a 21-point profit on Atlanta, since they are currently available at 9.0 and we suggested backing them at 30.0 before the season started.
New England were always a bet to nothing to make the playoffs from the AFC East and while a 2.2 profit doesn’t seem worth taking (they were 5.2, having been suggested at 7.4), a profit is a profit. Green Bay are a similar price to what they were at the start of the campaign. The less said about our speculative San Diego punt, the better. Thanks for playing, Norv Turner.
We had 10 winning weeks, six losing weeks and Week 13 was a push – not great, but overall we suggested more winners than losers.
Now it’s time to take another look at the Super Bowl market – and with Atlanta profit locked in – i.e. we should lay off some of that 30.0 – we are playing with layers’ money.
So it’s time to add to the portfolio.
Houston were the ante-post Super Bowl favourites but they are now as big as 19.5 on BETDAQ, thanks to a slew of injuries and three losses in their last four games to end the season. They are worth a small bet for back-to-lay purposes.
Conspiracy theorists believe the NFL would like nothing better than to see Peyton Manning earn a second Super Bowl before his retirement. Denver are available at 4.2, but we’ll pass, believing that New England are by far the best team in the AFC.
Instead, we look to San Francisco from the NFC. They are currently available at 7.2, which still looks a big price, given their tough defence.
Let’s now take a look at this weekend’s Wild Card games.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans (Sky Sports HD, Saturday, 9.30pm)
Weather: 39/54f Slight chance of rain. This rematch of last season’s opening Wild Card game, which the Texans won 31-10. It was their first ever playoff victory and it was achieved with a third-string quarterback.
Houston have dropped three of their last four games – all against playoff teams – but are 4.5-point BETDAQ handicap favourites to beat the NFC North division runner-up.
The Bengals have better momentum and have given up an average of just 12 points a game in the back half of the season, which is an incredible achievement.
Their defensive front is one of the best in the league and with Houston allowing 13 quarterback sacks in the past four games, there’s plenty to suggest that the Bengals could cause an upset.
However, there are a couple of plusses for the Texans that mean they should be supported, not least home-field advantage.
The first, and perhaps most significant, is the fitness of Cincinnati running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who is struggling with a hamstring injury. He is vital to the Bengals’ play-action passing attack. More good news for the injury-riddled Texans’ defence is that underrated starting outside linebacker Brooks Reed, who is a strong run defender, returned to practice on Tuesday after suffering a groin injury against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day. He was inactive against the Colts last weekend.
This will be Houston QB Matt Schaub’s first ever post-season start against a team that won six games on the road this season and were victorious in three of five games against opponents with a winning record. Counterpart Andy Dalton has led the Bengals to rare back-to-back playoff seasons in his first two years, which is some feat.
It can be argued that Houston’s record is down to their schedule, as they faced just six teams this term who boasted a winning record in 2011.
But looking at this in simple terms, this boils down to how well the Bengals run the ball to set up the pass, and how well they defend the run. Can they stop Arian Foster and make the Texans one dimensional? While they did beat Pittsburgh on the road two weeks ago and did a good job of limiting an unfit Rashard Mendenhall to 50 yards, they have not faced such a balanced attack for a while. While winning six of their last seven games, four came against also-rans who could not move the ball on the ground – Oakland, Kansas City, San Diego and Philadelphia – and they lost to Dallas, who also had no semblance of a running game.
Take Houston’s attack to do enough on the ground to allow Schaub to find Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson through the air when it matters, although the handicap line is right where it should be. Houston receive the tentative nod to cover.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (Sky Sports HD, Sunday, 1am)
Weather: 17/27f Mostly cloudy. Minnesota and Green Bay play in the same NFC North division and boast the same number of wins and losses (4-5) against teams with a winning record.
The differences occur in philosophy. Minnesota run the ball, Green Bay pass it. The Packers have allowed Adrian Peterson to run for 210 yards and 199 yards respectively in their two meetings this season. The Vikings have conceded 286 yards and 365 yards to Aaron Rodgers.
The Packers lost by three to the Vikings in Minnesota last weekend, costing them a bye – but aside from the venue, there are a couple of highly significant differences this week: the Vikings are likely to be without veteran cornerback Antoine Winfield, who departed in the second quarter last Sunday when he re-injured his broken hand.
Without him, the Vikings were forced to play with A.J. Jefferson and Chris Cook in the base formation with Marcus Sherels filling Winfield’s usual slot in the nickel defensive package. The result was a 28-of-40, four-touchdown passing day for Rodgers, who threw at Sherels 10 times and completed nine passes for 162 yards. One of those was a 73-yard pass to receiver Jordy Nelson in one-on-one coverage. If coach Leslie Fraser plays rookie Josh Robinson in the nickel role instead of Shiels, Rodgers will still look to exploit this glaring matchup weakness.
The Vikings will also miss linebacker Tyrome McKenzie, an unsung hero on special teams (shoulder).
Veteran cornerback Charles Woodson is set to return for the Packers and Rodgers will also get wide receiver/return man Randall Cobb back after he sat out last week with a sprained ankle.
Stopping Peterson is a problem for every team that face the Vikings. He does run significantly more to the right than the left, however. He also has, in the past, been prone to putting the ball on the ground.
The Packers’ defence need to tackle – not try and strip the ball – or Peterson will rip off large chunks of yardage. But if they can force Christian Ponder to try and win the game through the air, the Packers will have a much higher percentage change of winning.
The BETDAQ handicap line has Green Bay as 9.5-point favourites and if they get a fast start, forcing the Vikings to get away from their run-first game-plan, the hosts will have the game in the bag. If Minnesota run the ball effectively and Ponder gets a few chances of play-action, look for tight end Kyle Rudolph to see plenty of action against a safety under duress.
Winfield’s status is highly significant. If he doesn’t play, the Packers simply have too many offensive weapons to think that it will be anything other than an easy win. The handicap line looks high, but if it comes down to Rodgers verses Ponder, it’s no contest.
Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens (Sky Sports HD, Sunday 6pm)
Weather: 30/41f Mostly sunny. The Baltimore Ravens have never been one and done in the playoffs in the five years that John Harbaugh has been in charge. But if there is to be a major shock in the Wild Card round, Sunday’s opener could be just the spot.
The Ravens are 6.5-point BETDAQ handicap favourites and get their lauded defensive stars back after injury. This will be the last dance for some of them, in particular for linebacker Ray Lewis, who announced on Wednesday that this will be his final season.
It should be a highly-charged atmosphere and if the Ravens needed a psychological edge, they surely got it from their vocal, emotional and highly influential leader.
In tribute to a great career, we dedicate this week’s Musical Interlude to him: The Killers with ‘When You Were Young’.
Baltimore have been resting defensive players over the past few weeks and are relatively healthy for the first time in a long time. Lewis could return but he knew better than anyone that, at the age of 37, his days were numbered long before he injured his triceps in Week 6. In any event, the Dannell Ellerbe-Josh Bynes combination in the middle has been more than effective.
A counter argument says the Ravens are better with Lewis: they went 5-1 with him in the team, 5-5 without him, although the aging offensive line was perhaps much more effective early in the season.
Safety Bernard Pollard, out for the last three weeks with a rib injury, and linebacker Terrell Suggs, who played two games through a biceps injury, but got some extra rest by being deactivated on Sunday, are also expected back. The biggest boost will be the return of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who sat out last week with a knee injury. So there will be plenty of confidence and plenty of support for the Ravens.
But should Houston win on Saturday, a Colts victory here would see sensational rookie quarterback Andrew Luck take his team to Denver to face the Colts’ former quarterback, the legendary Peyton Manning. It’s a mouth-watering prospect, one that the TV men – who pay the NFL astronomic sums each season – would surely welcome. Be in no doubt, the NFL is all about making money.
The Colts are 3-3 against teams with a winning record, while the Ravens – who began the current campaign facing the fourth most difficult schedule in the league – went 3-4 against so-called ‘quality’ opponents.
The Ravens have a reputation for getting after the quarterback, but those players’ better days are in the rear view mirror and Luck is a very effective scrambler and can throw very well on the run. He can also use his legs to great effect and keep drives alive.
Counterpart Joe Flacco has been up and down all season and there are many inside the corridors of M&T Bank Stadium who feel it is time to move on at that position. The Ravens’ offense has been very hit and miss. They are extremely effective when Vontae Leach is leading the way for Ray Rice, but he is struggling with a leg injury.
The Colts also have a solid pass rush, so an up-tempo offensive game-plan might counteract what Indianapolis will try to do. There are doubts that Flacco can release the ball fast enough, however (it has always been my suspicion that he is not seeing his second and third reads as fast as he perhaps should).
While they face the 30th-ranked run defence, the fact that the Ravens changed their offensive coordinator three-quarters of the way through the season suggests that they are far from comfortable with their attack.
And if the Colts score early, this will put pressure on Flacco to produce and take the game out of Rice’s hands.
Is Flacco really up to producing when it matters? Can emotion and adrenalin overcome rustiness should Lewis play? While plenty points to a Ravens victory, the Colts are worth taking with the points as they have the offense capable of causing plenty of problems for their hosts.
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins (Sky Sports HD, Sunday, 9.30pm)
Weather: 30/43f Mostly sunny. This is perhaps the most intriguing of the quartet of games in Wild Card weekend. Two of the hottest teams, each with a rookie quarterback, square off in the nation’s capital: the Seahawks have won five in a row, and seven of their last eight; Washington take a seven-game winning streak into the contest. And it is the surprising Seattle Seahawks who are 2.5-point BETDAQ handicap favourites to win their first playoff game on the road for 29 years.
Seattle have lost eight road playoff games since winning at Miami on December 31, 1983, and no less than 44 of the current 53 on the Seahawks’ roster weren’t born at that time.
You could argue that they are due a road playoff victory.
Washington’s excellent attack, spearheaded by rookie quarterback/running back duo Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris, has carried a defence that ended up ranked 28th in the league. They have an opportunistic defence who are winning by forcing turnovers and getting quarterback sacks at a higher rate than they managed earlier in the season.
Yet Washington has not really been tested by such a strong defence recently and their own defence has given up plenty of yards through the air lately, too, including 550 yards in two games to rookie Philadelphia passer Nick Foles.
Washington need success on the ground for their play-action passing game to be effective but Seattle have done well containing mobile quarterbacks like Griffin, because they have good team speed. The plan for Seattle will be to contain Morris and force Griffin to beat them with his arm.
The biggest concern for Seattle backers is their propensity for being very conservative late in games, and it has cost them a couple of times – notably at Miami and Detroit, although those games were much earlier in the season. You don’t beat Chicago on the road, put up 58, 50 and 42 points in successive weeks against Arizona, Buffalo and San Francisco respectively without being a top-tier NFL team. Seattle, who have beaten five of the six teams they have faced with a winning record (and avenging their sole defeat by San Francisco), are not a heavy blitzing team and containment of Morris and receivers Pierre Garcon and Santana Moss will be paramount. They have two big, physical cornerbacks in Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner to do just that.
Washington, 3-3 against so-called quality opponents, will have a better chance of winning if this turns into a low-scoring affair.
But while Griffin has similar numbers to Seattle counterpart Russell Wilson (Griffin: 393 passing attempts/258 completions and 20 TDs/5 INTs; Wilson: 393 attempts/252 completions and 26 TDs/10 INTs) and their respective ground games are effective, Washington’s defensive front is not as good as Seattle’s. The Redskins have looked vulnerable to tight ends all season long, so look for Zach Miller to be a factor. But rather than Sidney Rice or Golden Tate making the difference for Seattle, it is that rolling ball of butcher’s knives, better known as Marshawn Lynch, who should make the difference for the visiting Seahawks.
Suggestions:
Houston -4.5
Green Bay -9.5
Indianapolis +6.5
Seattle – Moneyline
Houston/Cincinnati Over 43 points
Green Bay/Minnesota Under 46 points
Indianapolis/Baltimore Over 46 points
Seattle/Washington Under 46 points
Don’t forget to check out John Arnette’s views on the games at betdaqnfl.com
Milham’s 2012 regular-season record:
Week 17: 7-6
Week 16: 7-5
Week 15: 8-7
Week 14: 6-8-1
Week 13: 7-7-1
Week 12: 8-7-2
Week 11: 8-4
Week 10: 6-8
Week 9: 9-4
Week 8: 7-9
Week 7: 8-6
Week 6: 6-8
Week 5: 4-9
Week 4: 10-3
Week 3: 5-8
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 1: 7-5
Twitter: @simonmilham
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