St. Louis Rams (2-4, 2-4 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (3-3, 4-2 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread

BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -7 (44)

Significant Injuries

St. Louis: CB Janoris Jenkins (questionable– knee), CB Trumaine Johnson (questionable– knee), C Timothy Barnes (out– shoulder), CB Brandon McGee (out– foot)

Kansas City: S Eric Berry (questionable– ankle), WR Junior Hemingway (questionable– hamstring), CB Chis Owens (out– knee), WR Donnie Avery (out– groin)

Recent Trends

St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games

St. Louis is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams

Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall

Kansas City is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games

The UNDER is 4-1 in St. Louis’ last 5 road games

The UNDER is 23-9 in Kansas City’s last 32 home games

The OVER is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams

Three reasons to back St. Louis

1. The Rams are coming off a win over defending Super Bowl champion Seattle and they’ve played well on the road this season, beating Tampa Bay in Week 2 and losing by just 6 to the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles in Week 5. They have no business being a 7.5-point underdog in this situation, but Kansas City’s win over San Diego last week has everyone tripping over themselves to bet on the Chiefs, creating nice value here.

2. The Chiefs are one of only three teams leaguewide to average fewer than 200 passing yards per game; Alex Smith, of course, has never been known for his ability to push it down the field, and the receiving corps in Kansas City has been among the league’s worst for years. They just aren’t explosive enough offensively to be counted on as a 7.5-point favorite.

3. Kansas City is one of the NFL’s worst home teams, covering just once in their last 7 attempts despite being favored by 7.5 points or more exactly one time in those 7 games. In other words, the Chiefs never have to lay this many points at home, yet they still fail to cover at home on a consistent basis. They are badly overvalued here.

Three reasons to back Kansas City

1. The Chiefs have simply been much better than the Rams this season, winning more games, scoring more points, surrendering fewer points, and covering more often. This is an obvious mismatch.

2. The strength of the Kansas City offense is their rushing attack, as only two teams leaguewide average more yards per game on the ground. That’s what happens when you have an All Pro running back like Jamaal Charles, another very capable back in Knile Davis, and an offensive line that has steadily improved throughout the course of the season. They should run roughshod over a Rams defense that ranks 28th against the run.

3. The Rams have been really bad on both sides of the ball this season, ranking 24th in points scored and 31st in points allowed. They’ve also struggled on the road lately, covering just once in their last 5 attempts. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 and are starting to look like a legitimate contender. This one could get ugly.

Prediction


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