Green Bay Packers (5-2, 4-2-1 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (2-4, 2-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -2.5 (56)
Significant Injuries
Green Bay: S Morgan Burnett (questionable– calf), CB Sam Shields (doubtful– knee), DE Datone Jones (out– ankle)
New Orleans: DT Brodrick Bunkley (questionable– concussion), TE Jimmy Graham (questionable– shoulder), LB Ramon Humber (questionable– ankle), CB Keenan Lewis (questionable– knee), C Jonathan Goodwin (out– knee), LB Kyle Knox (out– ankle), RB Khiry Robinson (out– forearm), RB Pierre Thomas (out– ribs)
Recent Trends
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. NFC opponents
Green Bay is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game
The OVER is 6-1 in Green Bay’s last 7 road games
The OVER is 5-1 in New Orleans’ last 6 games overall
The OVER is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers are on a roll, as they’ve won 4 consecutive games and have done it in style, with 3 of the 4 victories coming by 21 points or more. The Saints, meanwhile, are 2-4 and coming off a painful loss to Detroit. This is a case of the wrong team being favored.
2. Aaron Rodgers has found his rhythm and the Green Bay offense is humming right along, as they’ve scored 27 points or more in 4 consecutive games and now rank 4th in scoring offense. This week he’ll face a New Orleans defense that ranks 28th in both pass yards allowed and scoring defense, so serious fireworks are expected from Rodgers and Co.
3. The Saints have been seriously overvalued this season, failing to cover in 4 of their first 5 games. They’re also banged up this week with running backs Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson set to miss the game and tight end Jimmy Graham– Drew Brees’ favorite target– listed as questionable with a bum shoulder. Bettors who haven’t yet realized that the Saints are just an average team this season– a good (though currently limited) offense and a terrible defense– will pay for it this week.
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints desperately need this game and they’re playing at home, where they’re 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with winning records. The Packers, meanwhile, don’t generally play well against struggling teams, failing to cover in 5 consecutive games against teams with losing records.
2. The New Orleans offense has been typically brilliant this season, ranking 2nd in both total offense and pass yards per game. They’ve also averaged over 120 rushing yards per game, which should serve them well against a Green Bay defense that ranks 31st against the run. The Packers are also banged-up in the secondary, with starting cornerback Sam Shields expected to miss this game due to a knee injury.
3. The Packers are an overvalued and overrated team that has a good record thanks to an appallingly soft schedule. They’ve yet to beat a single that made the playoffs last season (losing by 20 in their only attempt) and they haven’t been particularly good on the road– a last-second touchdown in their Week 6 game in Miami is the only thing standing between them and a 1-3 road record.
Prediction
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