Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11, 5-8 ATS) @ Carolina Panthers (4-8-1, 7-6 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread

BETDAQ Line: Carolina -3 (41)

Significant Injuries

Tampa Bay: TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (questionable– back), TE Brandon Myers (questionable– calf), RB Bobby Rainey (questionable– ankle), OT Anthony Collins (questionable– elbow), LB Mason Foster (questionable– Achilles), LB Lavonte David (questionable– head)

Carolina: WR Philly Brown (questionable– shoulder), G Amini Silatolu (questionable– knee), RB DeAngelo Williams (questionable– finger), QB Cam Newton (out– back)

Recent Trends

Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC South opponents

Tampa Bay is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record

Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record

Carolina is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC South opponents

Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game

The favorite is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these 2 teams

The UNDER is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last 4 games vs. a team with a losing record

The UNDER is 6-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 7 games overall

The UNDER is 12-4 in Carolina’s last 16 home games

The UNDER is 8-1 in Carolina’s last 9 games vs. NFC South opponents

Three reasons to back Tampa Bay

1. Both of Tampa’s wins this season have come on the road– they beat Pittsburgh in Week 4 and Washington in Week 11– and the Panthers have won just once in their last 5 home games and will be starting a backup quarterback this week. Predicting success for a 2-11 team is never easy, but this matchup is as good as it gets for the Bucs.

2. The Tampa defense has played well in recent weeks, limiting 5 of the team’s last 7 opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Carolina offense, meanwhile, has been dreadful lately, producing 21 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 games. Throw a backup quarterback into the mix, which the Panthers will have to do after Cam Newton’s car accident, and it becomes difficult to imagine the home team exceeding 17-20 points.

3. Last Sunday the Panthers routed a sinking New Orleans team, which has inflated their value in the minds of the betting public. It’s important to remember, though, that Carolina had lost 6 consecutive games prior to last week and 4 of those losses came by 18 points or more. They have a defense that’s surrendering over 26 points per game and they’ll be without their best and most important offensive player this week. This is not a team that should be favored over anybody at the moment, making a Tampa play the only sensible option here.

Three reasons to back Carolina

1. The Panthers are coming off of their best performance of the season, a 41-10 stomping of division-rival New Orleans, and now they return home to face a 2-11 Tampa team that has lost three consecutive games and 8 of the past 9. Derek Anderson takes over for Cam Newton at quarterback this week, which is why Carolina is just a 3-point favorite here and most definitely undervalued: Anderson is a capable veteran who has led the team to victory before, most recently in Week 1 of this season, when he threw 2 touchdown passes and engineered a 20-14 road win over these very same Bucs.

2. The Carolina defense has played well at home this season, holding teams like Detroit, Seattle, and Atlanta below 20 points. The Bucs aren’t nearly as good as any of those teams, as a matter of fact they average just 18.2 points per game, which is fewer than all but four teams leaguewide, and they seem to be regressing, having scored 17 points or fewer in 7 of their past 8 games. Expect another dominant performance from a Panthers defense that shut down the explosive New Orleans Saints last week.

3. The Bucs are simply a terrible team, probably the NFC’s worst: they’ve won just twice in 13 games, they rank 28th in points scored and 26th in points allowed, eight of their losses have come by 6 points or more, and they have the NFC’s worst points differential (-111). They shouldn’t be trusted under any circumstance, but especially not in a situation like this, when they’re going on the road to face a team in desperate need of a win. Remember, Carolina is only a half-game out of first in the NFC South.

Prediction


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