The finest tennis players in the world are spread across the globe once again this week, as the men have events in France, Brazil, and Florida, while the women can be found in Brazil and Dubai. We’ll be combing through the schedule over the next three days in search of value, and hopefully we’ll find it… those who followed along last week were rewarded handsomely. Here are the Friday choices:
ATP Open 13
Gilles Simon (1.51) vs. Jeremy Chardy (2.66)
Two Frenchmen face off in Marseille today, and Simon, who is seeded 5th in this tournament, is the clear favorite. After all, he’s beaten Chardy in all three of their previous encounters, including a stress-free 6-4, 6-3 victory in Rotterdam just last week. However, I believe Chardy is dangerous here. He played horribly in the loss last week, self-destructing with unforced errors and generally making things way too easy for Simon (the match lasted just 67 minutes). He’s responded by playing some excellent tennis this week, though, and he looked positively dominant in upsetting 3rd-seeded Ernests Gulbis yesterday, pushing the Latvian around the court en route to a 6-3, 6-4 win. Simon, meanwhile, dropped a set in his win over Borna Coric and doesn’t have Chardy’s firepower, though he’s generally much more consistent. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Simon wore down his countryman again today, but I think I’ll take my chances with the upset. Recommendation: Chardy at 2.66
ATP Delray Beach Open
Ivo Karlovic (1.74) vs. Steve Johnson (2.22)
Karlovic is a full 10 years older than Johnson and has accomplished much more in his career, winning 12 singles titles and once climbing into the top-15 of the world rankings. He’s a known commodity to tennis fans and bettors, which partially explains why he’s the favorite here. Beyond that, it’s hard to find many reasons to like the Croat in this matchup. For one, this will be the third meeting between these two and Johnson has yet to lose, though it should be noted that both of their previous matches have been extremely close (3-6, 7-6, 7-6; 6-7, 6-4, 7-6). Furthermore, Karlovic simply hasn’t been on-form over the past few weeks, losing an ugly match to unheralded Austin Krajicek last week and needing two tiebreakers to beat unseeded Thanasi Kokkinakis yesterday. Johnson, on the other hand, hasn’t lost a set this week– as a matter of fact, he hasn’t dropped more than 3 games in any set. I like his chances today. Recommendation: Johnson at 2.22
Bernard Tomic (1.21) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka (4.7)
Picking heavy favorites is never too exciting and nobody likes risking a lot to win a little, but sometimes, especially in a sport like tennis, where one side can be so physically dominant that it takes nearly all chance out of the equation, the opportunity to back a big favorite is essentially a free money giveaway. I believe we have such a match in Delray Beach today, where young Aussie Bernard Tomic will look to continue his climb up the world rankings against Yoshihito Nishioka. Now, I said “young” Aussie because Tomic is just 22, but compared to Nishioka, who is just 16 (!), Tomic is a grizzled veteran. Nishioka is swift on his feet and he has a nice little backhand, but his body hasn’t fully matured and he simply doesn’t have the strength (yet) to compete with the world’s best. This is a total mismatch; only an injury can prevent Tomic from advancing. Recommendation: Tomic at 1.21
WTA Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships
Simona Halep (1.79) vs. Caroline Wozniacki (2.22)
We should be in for a good one in Dubai, as former world number 1 Caroline Wozniacki takes on top-seeded Simona Halep in a semifinal matchup. This will be the third meeting between these two and they’ve split the first two matches, with Halep winning back in 2013 and Wozniacki prevailing in this very tournament back in 2012. Wozniacki breezed through her quarterfinal matchup with Flavia Pennetta, dispatching the 10th-seeded Italian 7-5, 6-0, while Halep struggled a bit before putting away Ekaterina Makarova 6-3, 1-6, 7-5, but a deeper look (i.e.- a look beyond yesterday) reveals that Halep has simply been playing better tennis than Wozniacki over the last few weeks. Halep won her last tournament (Shenzhen) and won four matches in the Australian Open before losing in the quarterfinals, while Wozniacki couldn’t make it beyond the round of 64 in Australia, losing a lopsided match to Victoria Azarenka. Wozniacki may have the bigger reputation and she’s certainly got all the tools, but I believe Halep is the better player right now. Recommendation: Halep at 1.79
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