We’ve reached the finals in Dubai and Mexico and the semis in Buenos Aires, so it’s a good day to be a tennis fan. And if you’re like me, you’ll be looking to enhance the viewing experience by putting a few dollars on the line. With that in mind, here are my thoughts on three of today’s matches. As you see, I chickened out on the day’s biggest match– Federer vs. Djokovic– because I didn’t want to bet against Djokovic but thought his odds were a bit short. Here are my thoughts on the rest of the day’s action:

ATP Argentina Open

Juan Monaco (2.6) vs. Nicolas Almagro (1.59)

In what could also be called “the match to determine Nadal’s next victim,” Juan Monaco will meet Nicolas Almagro today in the Buenos Aires semifinals. Both of these men have won this tournament before, but Monaco, the Argentine, will surely have the overwhelming support of the crowd. He’ll certainly need it after a grueling 2-hour, 38-minute win over Pablo Cuevas last night. Almagro, meanwhile, needed just one hour to dispatch 2-seed Tommy Robredo 6-3, 6-2. These two haven’t met since 2013 but Almagro holds a 7-3 head-to-head advantage, including 6-2 on clay, so he’s priced as a favorite here for a reason. Monaco is 32 years old now, and though he’s played some good tennis over the past month it’s clear that his best days are behind him. He lost to Almagro on clay twice in 2013, he lost to him in the semis of this very tournament back in 2011… I just don’t see him getting the job done today, to be honest. Recommendation: Almagro at 1.59

Carlos Berlocq (8.2) vs. Rafael Nadal (1.12)

We touched on this yesterday when handicapping the Djokovic match, how the best thing about betting tennis is also the worst thing about betting tennis: the very best players hardly ever lose. Guys like Nadal and Djokovic are a safer investment than the stock market, but with the type of odds they’re often saddled with the returns are usually nothing to brag about. That’s certainly the case here, as Nadal bettors can’t be too excited about the way oddsmakers view today’s semifinal match in Buenos Aires. Carlos Berlocq, an Argentine who will have the crowd squarely behind him, routed Slovenian Blaz Rola 6-1, 6-3 in yesterday’s quarterfinal and will no doubt view today’s match as the chance of a lifetime. If that’s enough for you to bet against Nadal on the clay, you probably don’t watch enough tennis. The legendary Spaniard is going for a record-tying 46th clay-court crown this week, and Berlocq is but a minor speed bump on the road to history. Recommendation: Nadal at 1.12

ATP Abierto Mexicano Telcel

David Ferrer (2.9) vs. Kei Nishikori (1.49)

At the rate that Kei Nishikori seems to be improving, just how good is he going to be a year or two from now? The 25-year old Japanese star has been brilliant in recent months and after advancing to another final this week he’s assured of moving up to number 4 in the world rankings, a career-best mark (he’ll move up to number 3 if he wins and Rafa Nadal loses today, but see above for the likelihood of that happening). Nishikori won’t overpower anybody, but his speed, stamina, and mental toughness are unparalleled– he just always seems to wear his opponent down. He should be in for a tough match today, though, as 32-year old Spaniard David Ferrer may be playing the best tennis of his career. Ferrer has already taken home two tournament titles this year and he owns a 17-1 match record, with his only loss coming against– you guessed it– Nishikori in the 4th round of the Australian Open. It was the 7th time in 10 attempts that Ferrer has failed to beat Nishikori, but based on his comments after his match yesterday it sounds like he is eagerly awaiting another opportunity. And despite Nishikori’s recent run of success, I think Ferrer has an good chance to come out on top here, a better chance than the odds would indicate. Recommendation: Ferrer at 2.9


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