While the time between Wimbledon and the U.S. Open is generally considered a “dead zone” for the casual tennis fan, serious bettors know that there’s frequently great value in these smaller tournaments.

We’ve reached the final in both the Croatia Open and Swedish Open and the matches are scheduled to start 6 hours apart (13:00, 19:00), so we should be in for a compelling Sunday. BETDAQ is offering markets for both matches, of course, and I think we have an excellent chance of seeing at least one upset…

Swedish Open final

Benoit Paire (2.68) vs. Tommy Robredo (1.54)

The Frenchman Paire has never lacked for talent; he has a big serve, an excellent two-handed backhand and plenty of athletic ability, but his undisciplined style of play has always cost him against top competition. This week, though, he’s played the best tennis of his life, dispatching 1-seed David Goffin 6-2. 6-3 on Thursday and ousting defending champion Pablo Cuevas 6-4, 6-3 yesterday. He’s now within reach of his first career ATP title, and all that stands in his way is 33-year old Tommy Robredo, a man who is just 9-9 in 18 matches this year and has not had to face a seeded player in this tournament. Paire will be the more powerful player and should be able to dictate the action, and if he can keep it together like he has all week he has a great chance. A good value at the current price, I believe. Recommendation: Paire at 2.68

Croatia Open final

Joao Sousa (2.44) vs. Dominic Thiem (1.62)

While Sousa should be commended for his performance against Roberto Bautista Agut yesterday– a three-set comeback win in which Sousa converted just 4 of 19 break points– it’s going to be awful tough for him to respond with another such effort against Thiem, an impressive young Austrian who picked up a title in Nice a couple of months ago (on clay, like this week). Thiem has beaten Sousa both times they’ve met– in Marseille this year and in the Australian Open last year– and Thiem certainly seemed to have full control of his game in breezing past 1-seed Gael Monfils in yesterday’s semifinal. I’d be stunned if Sousa were able to pull the upset here, he’s simply out-gunned by a younger and more talented player. Recommendation: Thiem at 1.62


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