With the PGA Tour now into the second week of their annual Florida swing, golf fans worldwide have begun to look ahead to that magical week in early April when things really get serious. Of course I’m talking about The Masters, the year’s first major championship and an event that’s unique in so many different ways.
It’s always the smallest field of any major, the only one that allows former champions to compete in perpetuity, and the only one that is held at the same venue every year. And oh, what a venue! If you’ve never been to majestic Augusta National do yourself a favor and make the pilgrimage one of these days. The entrance is right off an ugly, congested road full of strip malls and gas stations, but once you make that turn on to Magnolia Lane it’s as if you’ve been transported somewhere else. It’s a tiny little corner of the world that has been visited by every legend of the game since Bobby Jones, with wide fairways and treacherous greens that lend themselves to a style of play that can only be described as artistic. Walking the perfectly-manicured grounds and– if you’re lucky enough– strolling up the fairways is an experience that sticks with a golfer for a lifetime.
Winning The Masters, of course, is something that literally stick with you for a lifetime, as winners are always welcomed back and are given a membership to the club. Every golfer dreams of putting on that green jacket on Sunday evening, and this year the tournament is chock-full of young, hungry, world-class players who will be looking to become first-time Masters champions.
There’s world number 1 Rory McIlroy, the betting favorite (can currently be backed at 5.3 at BETDAQ) who has played some excellent golf at Augusta National but has a few demons lurking there as well. And there’s Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Martin Kaymer… the list goes on. But if former champions like Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Charl Schwartzel, and Angel Cabrera have anything to say about it, those young guns will have to wait another year before earning their first green jacket.
Watson is the defending champion and he’s won this event twice in the past three years, so he’s certainly someone to consider when making your pre-tournament bets (can currently be backed at 14.5 at BETDAQ), though he’s not my choice at the moment. Remember– we still have a month before the tournament and a golfer’s form can fluctuate considerably in a month’s time, so our opinions may change in the coming weeks. That said, there’s already been plenty of action on BETDAQ’s win market and if you think a particular player is going to play well over the next month then it’s imperative to get on now, as their odds will presumably shorten.
Below I’ve listed a few players who I think offer good value at the current price, as well as a couple of guys to avoid:
Recommendations to BACK
**odds in parenthesis are current as of 3/3/15
Matt Kuchar (34)- Kuchar hasn’t played much in recent weeks, which is why he isn’t one of the “hot” names right now, but when he does play he plays very well, as evidenced by his back-to-back top-5 finishes at the Sony and the Humana in January. His stellar record at The Masters includes top-8 finishes in each of the past three years (5th last year, 8th in 2013, 3rd in 2012) and he’s finished the tournament at par or better for five consecutive years, firing seven sub-70 rounds in that span. Kuchar checks all the boxes for a sensible pre-tournament bet: he’s playing well, he has a great history at Augusta National, and he’s been a regular contender in majors over the past several years. Plus, the price is right.
Henrik Stenson (34)- Stenson’s record at The Masters may not quite stack up to Kuchar’s, but the Swede has shown that he knows how to get around Augusta National, finishing 14th last year and racking up four top-20 finishes over the course of his career. And over the past couple of years he’s made an excellent case for “World’s best golfer not named Rory McIlroy”, as he’s climbed up to 3rd in the world rankings and seems to contend every time he tees it up. While it’s true that he hasn’t been teeing it up much of late– we haven’t seen Stenson since he posted back-to-back top-15 finishes in Qatar and Dubai several weeks ago– that could be viewed as a great reason to jump on now, while the odds are still fat. You see, Stenson is scheduled to compete in this week’s WGC Cadillac Championship, an event with a major championship-like field, and if he plays well you can be sure that his Masters odds will be affected. Timing is everything for the value-seeking sports bettor, and the time is now for a Stenson bet.
Lee Westwood (50)- Despite his continued solid play and the fact that he’s still plenty young for a golfer, an increasing number of observers seem to be of the opinion that Lee Westwood’s time has passed. There are younger, more dynamic players on the scene now, and Westwood is part of the “old guard” that is being replaced– at least, that’s the line of thinking. And while it’s true that we now have several world-class players who are 10-20 years younger than Westwood, we as bettors would be remiss if we were to write off the Englishman’s chances at this year’s Masters. For one, he nearly always plays well at Augusta, finishing 7th last year, 8th in 2013, 3rd in 2012, and 2nd in 2010. He’s also shown no signs of being past his prime– on the contrary, Westwood has looked as good as ever in 2015, finishing 5th in Malaysia, 9th in Dubai, and 25th at last week’s Honda Classic. He knows what it takes, he has the game to get the job done, and a green jacket would be the cherry on top of an excellent career, so he should be as motivated as anyone in the field. An absolute steal at the current price…
Recommendations to LAY
Tiger Woods (43)- Am I choosing an easy target and piling on? I’m sure some would view it that way, but I view it as a golfer whose odds are out-of-whack relative the current state of his game. Yes, Woods is an all-time great whose record at Augusta is second to none, but he was last seen blading pitch shots across the green and walking off the course in humiliation. At the time of this writing we have no idea what’s going on with Tiger, and there have been some wild rums circulating in recent days, from an ex-PGA Tour player claiming inside knowledge of a PED-related suspension to rumors of a secretive trip to a drug rehabilitation center. No one knows quite what to believe, and based on the ghastly state of Tiger’s game and the fact that he’s taken an indefinite pause from tournament golf there’s almost no story that’s too outlandish to consider. He’ll surely play at least once between now and The Masters so his odds are bound to fluctuate, but at the current price I think he’s a great “lay” candidate.
Martin Kaymer (62)- Kaymer is an accomplished young player whose best days are ahead of him, but he’s not to be trusted at The Masters, where his patented fade doesn’t fit the shape of most holes. He admitted as much in an interview back in 2011, saying of Augusta National, “There’s some golf courses that suit you, and some, they just don’t.” He continued, “I don’t really know how to play the golf course. I don’t know. I can think about it another hour-and-a-half or two hours, and I just don’t really find a solution.” Kaymer has made three consecutive cuts at The Masters since that interview, but he has still yet to notch a top-30 finish at the event. Despite his considerable worldwide success and undeniable talent, Kaymer is one of the best “lay” bets on the board at Augusta National.
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