HOME NATIONS AT EURO 2016: It is almost here! France will kick off EURO 2016 against Romania tomorrow evening, and then begins a month long festival of football.
Hosts France are currently favourites to lift the trophy at 4.4, with World Cup winners Germany priced at 5.6 and reigning European Champions Spain priced at 6.0. Looking at the home nations England look to be the only ones given a chance based on the market. They are trading at 10.0 with Wales the next best at 90.0. So let’s take a closer look at the home nations.
GROUP OF DEATH FOR IRELAND
Ireland got a very unlucky draw for the tournament, similar to how they fared in 2012. They have been landed in the ‘Group of Death’ with Belgium, Italy and Sweden. All tough opponents and Ireland will be going in to each game as the underdog. The closer we get to the EUROs the more worried I have been getting about their chances of progression. There has been some nerving signs from the camp over the past week, with some of Roy Keane’s comments calling out members of the squad like Aiden McGeady. I’m not sure how the team will respond to these comments, and I don’t think there will be much harmony in the camp over the next couple of weeks. They are currently 11.0 to progress from Group E, and as much as it pains me to say it, I am not confident they will progress.
The first game will determine all. They are playing the side they have the best chance of getting a result against. It certainly won’t be easy though. I watched Sweden against Wales, and although they used to be a one man team with Zlatan Ibrahimovic, they have a lot of quality young players in the side now. Although it was only a friendly and you can’t read too much into it, watching Sweden really made me afraid for our guys. They will need a result from this one to have any hope. If they lose, then I think they will finish on zero points. I can’t see them getting a result from Belgium, they just have too much quality in their side with players like De Bruyne, Hazard, Lukaku and so many more.
If Ireland are going to stand any chance, they need Shane Long in top form and scoring goals to stand a chance. Jon Walters has been a warrior and has picked up some very important goals, but Long is the difference up front. He was in good form to close out the season for Southampton, and a good tournament could secure him a big transfer in the Premier League. He will run the channels endlessly and pester defenders as he always does, and if he can grab a few goals while doing this Ireland could have a slim chance at progressing. But I wouldn’t hold my breath. Verdict – Lay Ireland to reach last 16.
ALL EYES ON BALE
Wales had a dreadful time of it in their pre-tournament friendlies, most recently falling 3-0 to Sweden. Chris Coleman has said he’s not worried by these results as they were only friendlies and you can understand why to a degree. But Wales fans must be concerned with these performances before heading to France. It will have put a difficult job on his hands in trying to pick a starting 11.
They have three strong players in the side; Joe Allen, Aaron Ramsey and of course Gareth Bale. This tournament is Bale’s opportunity to really prove himself as one of the very best players on the globe. The top players like Ronaldo, Zlatan have carried their teams in tournaments and it is Bale’s time to do the same. He is the most expensive player in history, has two Champions League winners medals but when it comes down to his legacy, EURO 2016 will be very important to see how he handles the pressure.
If Wales don’t do well it will be because Bale hasn’t played well. If they do well, it will most likely be because of his play. They really rely heavily on their talisman, which is understandable. I think they can get through this group, although I don’t think it will be hugely convincing. They’ll have enough to get a draw against England and pick up one other win in the group to progress. Or even more draws, I think it is realistic that they finish third in their group. At 1.67 to progress I would certainly be willing to put a bet on. Verdict – Wales to Progress to Last 16.
UNBEATEN RUN TO CONTINUE
England went ten from ten in their games in the EURO Qualifiers, playing some excellent football along the way. Many of their players are coming off excellent seasons in the Premier League, but their biggest problem is somebody who is not. Wayne Rooney did not have a good season. He battled injuries and struggled with form, especially in front of goals. The question is, where will Roy play him. I presume he will have him in the side, but will it be in midfield or up front?
I think England fans will be hoping he plays midfield, if Roy accommodates him up front then other players will be very much out of position. We saw it during their friendlies, when Kane or Vardy play out wide it just doesn’t work. They have more chemistry with him in midfield and both Vardy and Kane playing more centrally. There is an abundance of pace in the team, from their defenders through to their strikers and wide players. They don’t necessarily need any wingers in the team, but being able to bring the likes of Sterling of the bench could be a major weapon for them.
In this tournament it is important for England to start off well and set the tone for the tournament. So many times they have stumbled through the group stages only to lose easily in the knockout rounds. Their defense is their main issue I think, they have it in them to score goals for sure but they are a bit shaky at the back. I think they will be able to qualify easily from the group, I expect them to top the group and if not definitely grab second spot. If they don’t this will be viewed as another failure and you would worry about Hodgson’s job. They are pretty short to win the group at 1.89, but I think it is well worth a punt. Verdict – England to Qualify & Win Group
TOUGH TEST FOR THE NORTH
This one is tricky to call. Northern Ireland were excellent in qualifying for EURO 2016, but they had an easy group if truth be told. This is a tough group for them, similar to that of Republic of Ireland. They start off against a strong Poland side who I think could turn a lot of heads in the next month. They have some good up and coming players, and one of the top strikers around in Lewandoski. Northern Ireland will do very well to get anything from that game, and after a loss it is tough to pick yourselves up to try and qualify when you have to face the World Champions.
If they are to have any chance of progressing, they will need to have one of the best defenses in the tournament. They are strong at the back, but it would be a big ask to get clean sheets against Poland and World Cup winners Germany. Looking further up the field Northern Ireland may struggle, Kyle Lafferty limped out of training during the week and could struggle with fitness. They just don’t have any stand out players that will turn the game on its head.
It was an impressive qualification for Northern Ireland, but they were not rewarded with an easy group despite their stading. It will be a very difficult few games for them, and as much as I would like to see them doing well, I just can’t see them getting through here. Verdict – Lay Northern Ireland to Progress
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