And just when I was taking heat for my “Lay Serena” advice…

(minds out of the gutter, folks, you know what I mean)

Roberta Vinci (3.15) vs. Flavia Pennetta (1.45)

We all figured we’d be watching a historic women’s final, and this one is indeed historic in its own special way– at ages 32 and 33, respectively, these women are the oldest first-time Grand Slam finalists in the Open Era, and it’s also the first time two Italian women have met in a Grand Slam final. It isn’t what we thought we’d get, though, especially after Serena dominated the first set against Vinci yesterday. But credit Vinci for a truly remarkable performance; she was pretty steely in all those high-pressure points late in the match, and now she’ll always be able to tell her grandkids that she stopped the calendar-year Grand Slam bid of possibly the greatest women’s tennis player of all time.

First, however, she has to face the red-hot Flavia Pennetta, who played nearly perfect tennis in a 6-1, 6-3 semifinal win over 2-seed Simona Halep. Pennetta has gone through the gauntlet to get here, beating Sam Stosur, Petra Kvitova, and Halep in succession, while Vinci had not had to face a seeded player in the tournament prior to her match with Williams. As far as head-to-head goes, these ladies have met nine times (Pennetta leads 5-4) but just twice on hard courts, with Vinci winning in straight sets in Tokyo back in 2009 and Pennetta returning the favor right here at Flushing Meadows in 2013. Based on that, then, you may think Vinci looks like a good value at 3.15. If you’ve seen Pennetta play this week, though, you know why she’s favored. I mean, she absolutely rolled over Simona Halep, and in her last three matches– all difficult ones against seeded players– she’s dropped a total of one set. Contrast that to Vinci, who has lost a set in every match she’s played since the first round. And could there be anything more emotionally draining than what Vinci pulled off against Serena yesterday? She’s played some courageous tennis to get here, but I have a feeling she won’t have enough gas left in the tank to beat the surging Pennetta. Recommendation: Pennetta at 1.45, Pennetta 2-0 (sets) at 2.06

Roger Federer (2.14) vs. Novak Djokovic (1.8)

Doesn’t get much better than this, does it? Federer and Djokovic meet for the 42nd time on Sunday, and if Djokovic prevails then each man will have 21 victories over the other. And while Djokovic has been getting the better of Federer with some regularity in recent years, he wasn’t able to get the job done in the final of the Cincinnati tournament a few weeks ago, with Federer cruising to a straight-set victory on the hard courts. I mean… Federer. What else can you say? The guy is 34 years old now, absolutely ancient in the tennis world, and yet he still makes it all look so effortless. He has yet to drop a set in this tournament, and only in the John Isner match did he lose more than 4 games in any set. There just aren’t any holes in his game to pick apart; he’s like a machine, and a win on Sunday would be the cherry on top of the greatest career that men’s tennis has ever seen.

Unfortunately for him, he’s facing Djokovic. And as good as Federer still is as age 34, he’s no longer on Djokovic’s level when the Djoker has his best stuff, as we saw in the Wimbledon final two months ago. Anybody who saw Djokovic’s semifinal win over 9-seed Marin Cilic– an absolute clinic that was not competitive for a singe minute (6-0, 6-1, 6-2)– probably has a cold chill run down their spine at the mere thought of betting against him tomorrow. I watched it, but the “cold chill” hasn’t materialized because I’m not stupid enough to bet against Djokovic in this situation. I do expect a classic, though… these guys haven’t gone five sets against each other since Wimbledon in 2014, and this could be Federer’s last stand. He won’t go down without a fight. Recommendation: Djokovic at 1.8, Djokovic 3-2 (sets) at 5.4


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