The sport of tennis gets its final close-up of the season this coming week, as the world’s best descend upon Flushing Meadows for the year’s final Grand Slam, the U.S. Open.
The action begins on Monday, and BETDAQ will have markets for every match, of course, so opportunity abounds. For now, though, we’ll just focus on the men’s and women’s outright win markets, which have been fairly lively over the last 48 hours and will only get busier over the next couple of days.
On the men’s side, the “Big 4” has really become a Big 3, as Rafa Nadal has been struggling badly of late and is unlikely to be a factor in this tournament. As a matter of fact, the true “Big 4” may now include French Open champ Stan Wawrinka instead of Nadal, though a gulf exists between Wawrinka and the three best players in the world: Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray. All three of those men are former U.S. Open champions, and it seems highly probable that one of them will come out on top this year. Djokovic is the favorite at 2.12, but he was beaten by Federer on the hard courts in Cincinnati last week and by Murray in Montreal the week before.
The Swiss Master is the trendy pick after his brilliant display of tennis in Cincinnati, where he seemed to slightly alter his hard-court strategy, choosing to attack the net on second serves more often than normal. As a result, he often forced the action against Djokovic and seemed to confuse the Serb at times. It’s been three years since Federer won a Slam and he’s now 34 years old, but his game is razor sharp at the moment and he has to be full of confidence after dispatching Djokovic in straight sets. That was a best-of-three match, though, and it remains to be seen whether Federer’s body can hold up over two weeks of grueling best-of-five contests, especially since hard courts are the most physically-taxing surface. Last year, for instance, he came out flat in the semis and was beaten by eventual champ Marin Cilic, and a similar outcome is certainly possible this time around (though probably not via Cilic, who has been battling a shoulder injury and has not been on-form). Should he be trusted at the relatively short price of 4.3?
The women’s side doesn’t feature a Big 3 or Big 4 thanks to the singular brilliance of Serena Williams, who looks to become the first woman since Steffi Graf in 1988 to win all four Grand Slams in the same calendar year. She’s the prohibitive favorite at 1.84 (Victoria Azarenka comes in next at 8.6), but there have been some definite warning signs over the last few weeks that have to concern Serena backers. The most obvious of these signs was her loss to young Belinda Bencic in the semifinals of the Rogers Cup two weeks ago, though she wasn’t her usual dominating self in Cincinnati last week, either, despite the fact that she eventually won the tournament. And that’s the rub here, I guess: Serena is so much better than everyone else that she frequently wins without her “A” game. This week will be really pressure-packed for her, though, and she has melted down under the bright New York lights before. You often hear that “only Serena can beat Serena”, and while that statement is meant to be a testament to her greatness it also hints at past occasions when, indeed, Serena has come unglued and lost to inferior competition. Can she hold it together amidst all the distractions, which now include a budding romance with a famous rapper?
These questions will all be answered in the coming days, but as bettors we’re not afforded the luxury of waiting around; it’s our job to guess correctly. With that in mind, here are a few suggestions:
Recommendations
BACK Novak Djokovic at 2.12– The Djoker is still the best in the world despite his recent stumbles and he was victorious in the last hard court Slam, the Australian Open. I have a feeling the loss to Federer last week was exactly what he needed.
Dark horse- Kei Nishikori at 16.5- Nishikori may not have the firepower to hang with the Big 3, but I like him against anyone else and I feel he’s likely to make a deep run in this year’s tournament. He’s at his best on the hard courts, as he proved with his win at the ATP Citi Open three weeks ago, and he has a favorable draw if he can get past a tricky 1st Round matchup against Benoit Paire.
LAY Serena Williams at 2.18- Admittedly, advising someone to bet against Serena feels a bit like telling someone to bet against Secretariat or Floyd Mayweather. That being said, her form seems to be slipping a bit and she’ll be under massive amounts of pressure this week. When listing all of her championship traits, “emotional stability” is not among them. I’ll take the field.
Dark horse- Angelique Kerber at 34.0- Aside from her loss to the ascendant Belinda Bencic in Cincinnati last week, Kerber has been playing some great tennis of late, winning the Bank of the West Classic in early August and following that up with a strong showing in the Rogers Cup, where she won a couple of matches before losing an extremely competitive 3-setter to 2-seed Simona Halep. Kerber is comfortable on the hard courts and I think she offers nice value at the current price.
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