RYDER CUP: Once a fairly obscure tournament that struggled to attract top-tier talent and large galleries, the Ryder Cup has steadily grown in popularity over the course of my lifetime and is now arguably golf’s preeminent event, a three-day extravaganza of passion, patriotism, competitiveness, and sportsmanship that draws the interest and admiration of even the most cynical sports fan.
I admit that my view of the tournament and what it represents is colored by circumstance– I’m U.S.-based, and I doubt that someone living in Japan or Australia would call the Ryder Cup the biggest event in golf– but there’s no denying that this competition strikes a unique chord with people, rousing intense passions in fans and players alike. The European team has dominated in recent years, taking home the Cup in 4 of the last 5 stagings and 7 of the past 9. Many grizzled vets return for the Euro side this time around, with names like Garcia, Westwood, and Poulter set to give it one more (final?) go-round, and as a result that average age of the European team is 5.5 years older than that of the Americans. Captain Padraig Harrington certainly hopes that experience will work to his team’s advantage, and when you look at the overall Cup numbers– this current Euro team has earned a combined 89 Ryder Cup points over the course of their careers, while the American team checks in at just 25.5 combined points– it’s not an exaggeration to say that one side has been here before and the other has not.
The U.S. team will be trotting out 6 rookies, but given their record in the past few competitions some new blood is probably a good thing. Most of the “conventional” numbers would point to an easy U.S. victory: the American team features 8 of top 10 players in the latest World Rankings, while Europe has just 1. If you look at total tournaments won over the past three years, birdie average, scoring average… it all favors the Americans. We’ve seen this movie before, however, and honestly– is Harris English a good bet to beat Rory McIlroy just because he has a higher world ranking (which he does)? Will players like Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau, whose words and actions would suggest they they may not be fully focused or excited about this week, play better golf over the next three days than the Paul Caseys, Tommy Fleetwoods, and Tyrrell Hattons of the world? That’s really what it’s all about– throw the stats out the window. This event is full of unique formats, strategies, and pressures, and there’s no question that, for whatever reason, the European team has proven superior at handling the adversity and feeding off the camaraderie. We’ll see if that holds true this year.
The format should be well known to most reading this article: it’s a 3-day competition, with the 12-man teams playing both fourball (best ball) and foursomes (alternate shot) over the first two days, and then 12 singles matches on Sunday. One point is awarded for each match victory and a half-point for a halve, with 28 total points up for grabs and 14.5 needed for the victory. If it ends in a 14-14 tie the Cup is retained by its current holder, which in this case is Europe after their dominating performance in Paris in 2018. Thanks to the pandemic the Americans have had to wait an extra year for their shot at revenge– can they break the stranglehold that Europe has had on the Cup?
The venue is familiar to many in the field, as the Straits Course at Whistling Straits played host to the 2015 PGA Championship, won by Aussie Jason Day. A Pete Dye design, the course is a links style but without the firm ground that makes possible much of the creativity we normally associate with links golf. One thing it does have is a strong breeze that whips across the exposed layout, and cool and breezy weather is forecasted for the next few days. If you think that sounds like a setup that would favor the Europeans, you’re not alone– there have been several people on social media in recent days, including some current Tour pros, who have suggested that perhaps Whistling Straits is not the most advantageous venue for the U.S. team. But it’s plenty long, measuring nearly 7,400 yards, and you can be sure that U.S. captain Steve Stricker will do everything in his power to set up the course to favor bombers like Koepka, DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau.
In addition to being an exciting event to watch from a fan’s perspective, the Ryder Cup also happens to be great fun to bet on, with wild swings in the live markets as things change with every shot. BETDAQ is currently offering a dozen different markets, with more to come, so opportunity abounds. Here’s what I’m thinking:
Recommended Bets
Tony Finau top U.S. points scorer at 12.0- Whistling Straits is going to be set up to favor the bombers, and Finau has length to spare, which is a big reason why he ranks 11th on the PGA Tour in total eagles and 20th in birdie or better percentage. He made his Ryder Cup debut in Paris in 2018 and fared well, compiling a 2-1 record and earning a singles victory over Tommy Fleetwood, and he had a good run at the 2015 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits, finishing 10th. Given his current form, which includes a win at The Northern Trust, a T15 at the BMW Championship and a T11 at the Tour Championship, I expect him to be one of Steve Stricker’s horses this week… he may play in every session and has a legit chance at leading the Americans in points scored, making him a great value at 12.0.
Viktor Hovland top overall rookie at 6.0- Hovland will make history this week as the first Norwegian Ryder Cupper, and I think he has a chance to make a real splash. He finished the FedEx Cup Playoffs on a strong note, tying for 5th at the Tour Championship, and with the way he drives the ball, ranking 5th on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, he should feel right at home at Whistling Straits. Though he doesn’t have much match play experience as a professional, anyone who is a product of the U.S. collegiate system these days has played plenty of match play golf, and Hovland did win the 2018 U.S. Amateur, America’s premier match play event. Critically as it pertains to this bet, I expect Padraig Harrington to utilize Hovland early and often this week, possibly putting him out there for every session. He’s got a great chance to finish the week as the top overall rookie.
U.S. to lift the trophy at 1.53- Bust out the trombones and call this a homer pick if you must, but the U.S. team is a good bet to get the job done here. People act like it’s been forever since the Americans hoisted the Cup, but it actually happened the last time this event was held on U.S. soil, in 2016. And there’s one stat that nobody seems to be talking about but which may be the most important and predictive: at the 2015 PGA Championship, held at Whistling Straits, four members of the current U.S. team finished in the top-10, with another, Justin Thomas, finishing 18th. Nine members of the current European team teed it up that week– four missed the cut, and only Rory McIlroy, who finished T17, cracked the top-20. That’s pretty powerful, and it suggests that maybe those who have said that Whistling Straits isn’t an “American-style” course are just flat-out wrong. Team USA is favored for a reason and I’ve got a strong hunch that they’ll be able to pull it off this time.
