Detroit (2-3) earned a huge victory in Philadelphia, but lose in Chicago (4-1) and they will sit at 2-4 and be 0-2 against NFC North rivals. They are 5-point underdogs on the BETDAQ handicap line, where bettors back and lay bets against each other.
The points total line for the game is set at 47.5 points. You can also bet on the outright outcome – without a handicap – which is known commonly as the Moneyline.
The Bears have beaten the Lions on nine of their last 11 trips to Chicago, including a 37-13 beatdown last November, but the dogs have been barking on Monday nights, going 5-2 against the handicap spread (ATS) with three winning outright.
However, Chicago should be at least a touchdown too good for the old Portsmouth Spartans, who won the first meeting 82 years ago to this day by a score of 7-6. Since then, the Lions have lost more than they’ve won against the Bears who hold a 94-65-5 record over them.
Chicago would be 0-2 in the division should they lose, having already been beaten by Green Bay, and while they have not yet beaten a team who currently possess a winning record, their offense has been effective, notching no fewer than 23 points in every outing.
The Bears have won three in a row, so have obvious momentum, they are rested after a bye week and are 5-3 in games immediately following their bye week since Lovie Smith became coach in 2004. They lost in each of his first two seasons and are 5-1 since 2006, and it is worth remembering that in 2010 after their bye, they won five straight and after resting up last year, they went on a three-game unbeaten run.
Jay Cutler may not be the most likable quarterback in the league but he has posted a 5-1 record over the Lions since he arrived in the Windy City and unless Ndamukong Suh manages to wreck more havoc than he does behind the wheel, the Bears have a favourable matchup against a suspect Lions secondary. While J’Marcus Webb will have his hands full with Kyle Vanden Bosh, the matchup to look out for how well (or rather how badly) Gabe Camiri handles pass protection against the Lions’ Cliff Avril.
If the Bears give Cutler a clean pocket for most of the game, he will look to exploit the Lions’ secondary, who are bereft of serviceable cornerbacks. The return of linebacker Louis Delmas from injury is an instant upgrade, but Bears receiver Brandon Marshall should have a big night – providing he learns to hand on to the ball.
Delmas is crucial to Detroit, especially in their current injury crisis and he will provide cover for the cornerbacks who are sure to have their hands full. It’s not nicest return for Louis, so we hope he finds some comfort in this week’s Musical Interlude…
If you are a Detroit fan, you will certainly worry about Cutler and Marshall picking on rookie cornerback Jonte Green, who was terrible in pre-season. But if Chris Houston and Bill Bentley play, he might not see too much action. The Lions signed Alphonso Smith to provide cover, since Jacob Lacey is almost certainly ruled out with concussion.
But overall, the Lions’ cornerback situation is iffy at best.
Cutler is a Jekyll and Hyde mystery. He’s had two poor outings against Green Bay and St Louis, but has looked efficient otherwise, and it’s clear that Marshall’s arrival from Miami has helped them evolve, for they have been one of the best big-play teams; yards per attempt, the best indicator, has them pegged fifth in the NFL with 7.8 yards per attempt. They have 19 plays of 20-plus yards or more.
The Bears’ defence has been the usual nightmare for opposing quarterbacks this season. The QB ratings for each of their five opponents was 52.9 (Andrew Luck), 85.3 (Aaron Rodgers), 39.2 (Matt Stafford), 60.1 (Tony Romo) and 37.7 (Blaine Gabbert). Only one of those – Rodgers – is an elite quarterback, however.
The Lions will probably pass for more yardage than the Bears typically allow on average (225 yards) but while Calvin Johnson is a nightmare matchup for any secondary, he has not been a fantasy football star this season, as the Lions have struggled near the end zone.
The Lions’ running game ranks 19th – having complied 100 yards or more just twice in their five outings – and the Bears are first against the run. Lions are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and are one of three teams have not managed a run longer than 20 yards.
Layers believe that this will be something of a shootout, since the Lions will have to air it out and the Bears will likely test that paper-thin secondary. But that does not mean to say the Lions will be successful. The Bears defence lead the NFL with 13 interceptions and have a 21-5 record when scoring a defensive touchdown since Lovie Smith became their head coach in 2004, including a 3-0 mark this season.
Chicago could get their noses in front and run the ball, limiting opportunities for the Lions’ aerial attack. And given the Lions’ struggles in the red zone, they could be limited to field goals rather than touchdowns.
Providing Peanut Tillman manages to be physical with Megatron, and Cutler isn’t at his brooding worst, the Bears simply look a better balanced team in most phases right now and they should give favourite backers at least a little Monday Night respite.
Suggestions:
Back Chicago – Monelyine
Lay – Detroit -5
Lay – Over 47.5 total points
Milham’s 2012 record:
Week 1: 7-5
Week 2: 7-6-1
Week 3: 5-8
Week 4: 10-3
Week 5: 4-9
Week 6: 6-8
Twitter: @simonmilham
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