ATP Mercedes Cup
SEMIFINALS
Gael Monfils (3.05) vs. Rafael Nadal (1.47)
Has age reduced Nadal to a mere mortal, or has he just been going through a bit of a rough patch for the past couple of months? I think most people lean towards the former option after watching Rafa the Great thoroughly dominated in the quarterfinals at Roland Garros, where he is a 9-time champion. And if we can’t trust him on the clay, how should we approach grass court season, which began this week with the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart?
Nadal labored through his win over Bernard Tomic yesterday, losing the second set before pulling himself together and finishing off the young Aussie in three (6-4, 6-7, 6-3). Now he’s got the uber-athletic Gael Monfils, who he has dominated throughout his career, winning 10 times in 12 opportunities. Nadal has never faced Monfils on grass, though, and– as previously mentioned– this doesn’t appear to be the “same old Rafa”. Though he’s never been overpowering, his shots seem to lack a little bit of crispness, and it just looks like he’s a half-step (maybe a quarter-step?) slower than he used to be. Add it all up and you have a vulnerable-feeling favorite. Monfils is playing much better tennis than he was at the beginning of the year and I won’t be the least bit surprised if he gets the job done today. Recommendation: Monfils at 3.05
Viktor Troicki (2.86) vs. Marin Cilic (1.51)
Though this match isn’t getting as much press as the other semifinal, it should be a very competitive affair, as neither man has reached a Final this year and both men are trying to get their careers back on track after lengthy drug suspensions– 9 months for Cilic and 18 months for Troicki. Cilic has won five of the eight career meetings between the two, but their match at the 2013 French Open– a straight-set Cilic victory– marked the last time they’ve faced each other, and the only time since 2011.
Though neither man has had a great year, Cilic did reach the 4th Round of the French Open, which should give him a bit of confidence, and he’s always been good on grass, where his powerful, flat ball-striking can be difficult for opponents to deal with. Troicki really hasn’t had any success until this week, but he has been a bit more impressive than Cilic over the past few days, losing just one set in three matches and absolutely rolling over Sam Groth 7-6 (3), 6-1 in yesterday’s quarterfinals. This would be a big win for Troicki’s career as he tries to recover from the damaging suspension, and he’s certainly facing a beatable opponent. Cilic is the favorite for a reason, though– he’s been the better player this year and, though fairly similar to Troicki stylistically, he’s always seems to have the slight on-court edge. It’s just difficult to trust Troicki based on what we’ve seen out of him this year, but I do expect him to pick up a set and treat the fans in Stuttgart to a really competitive match. Recommendation: Cilic at 1.51, Cilic 2-1 (sets) at 3.7
