BIG RACE PREVIEW: The sprinters take centre stage on day three of the Ebor Festival with the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York. Can our Big Race Preview unlock the winner?
All Change In The Nunthorpe?
When looking at the 10 year trends for the Nunthorpe Stakes the immediate pointer that jumps off the page is that younger horses have struggled to make their mark against their elders in this contest in recent times. Only one three-year-old has won it in the past ten years and only a couple of two-year-olds have won in it the past thirty years!
However when looking at this year’s renewal it is obvious that three-year-olds dominate the market with the top four in the betting all belonging to this particular age group. And one of the main protagonists has to be Suesa. The flying French filly has been beaten only once in six starts and that is when she disappointed in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. A failure to settle and the draw were put forward as likely excuses and she supported the view that she was much better than she showed there when running away with the King George Qatar Stakes at Goodwood some six weeks later. She beat Dragon Symbol by three lengths and in doing so, she recorded a very strong speed rating figure of 81 in the process. She comes here with a huge chance albeit on the proviso that connections may want to see some rain fall as she has never run on anything better than good to soft and quick ground would be a major unknown and a worry.
The horse she beat at Goodwood (Dragon Symbol) is surely going to land a Group 1 at some point and indeed he already has done so only to lose the Commonwealth Cup in the Stewards Room. He too arrives here with a huge chance however questions remain around the trip (could be better at six furlongs) and the ground as although he has won on Good To Firm, he has shown a lot of form on slower surfaces. Golden Pal is a real conundrum. Just touched off in last season’s Norfolk Stakes at the Royal Meeting, he has won all three starts since in the US. His astute trainer says he is probably the best horse he has trained and if that is the case then he could be a huge player here.
Of the older horses, Dakota Gold, Emaraaty Ana and Moss Gill are all admirable listed level sprinters and not without a chance but are they up to Group 1 level? If the ground stays relatively quick then the older horse who may well get into the shake up is Arecibo. The son of Invincible Spirit has become very consistent in Group race sprints this season and on his run in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June where he chased home Oxted, he would enter right into calculations here. Clearly suited by top of the ground he commands plenty of respect from his decent looking draw in stall 15.
Of the rest, Winter Power makes most appeal. Now rated 114 and very progressive, her trainer states that she has been trained for the race and if York does get a drop of rain before the off then she is a player.
Suggestion: Suesa (Good or slightly softer ground)
Alternatives: Arecibo each-way (good or faster ground)/Golden Pal
Nunthorpe BETDAQ market -> https://bit.ly/3sudJSL