Cleveland Browns (7-7, 7-5-2 ATS) @ Carolina Panthers (5-8-1, 7-7 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Carolina -4 (41)
Significant Injuries
Cleveland: TE Gary Barnidge (questionable– ribs), LB Karlos Dansby (questionable– knee), CB Joe Haden (questionable– shoulder), WR Marlon Moore (questionable– knee), LB Jabaal Sheard (questionable– foot), S Tashaun Gipson (out– knee), CB K’Waun Williams (out– hamstring)
Carolina: LB A.J. Klein (questionable– knee), G Amini Silatolu (questionable– knee), RB DeAngelo Williams (questionable– hand)
Recent Trends
Cleveland is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Cleveland is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing record
Cleveland is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 December games
Carolina is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
Carolina is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games
The UNDER is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last 8 games following a loss of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 9-1 in Cleveland’s last 10 games overall
The UNDER is 16-5 in Carolina’s last 21 games following a win
The UNDER is 4-0 in Carolina’s last 4 home games
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. Three weeks ago the thought of Carolina being favored by 4 points over Cleveland would’ve seemed laughable. The Panthers had lost 6 straight games to fall to 3-8-1 on the season, while the Browns were 7-4 and seemingly headed towards a playoff berth. Since then, the Browns have lost to three of the AFC’s best teams– Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Buffalo–while the Panthers lost by 18 to Minnesota and beat both New Orleans and Tampa Bay, two teams with a combined record of 8-20. So, that’s all it took for public opinion to totally turn around– Cleveland had to lose to a couple of good teams and Carolina had to beat a couple of bad ones. This is what we call “recency bias”, and it can be a significant hindrance to the sports bettor if not identified and eliminated. The wrong team is favored here.
2. The Browns have run the ball well all season behind their excellent offensive line, and they should have plenty of success this week against a Carolina defense that ranks 21st against the run. The Panthers have simply been steamrolled by teams that have been committed to running the ball, surrendering 193 rushing yards to Cincinnati, 151 to Tampa Bay, 122 to Green Bay, 120 to Seattle, and so on. This is a great matchup for the Cleveland offense.
3. The Panthers have had trouble on offense all season– they’ve scored 21 points or fewer in 7 of their past 8 games– and their most important player, quarterback Cam Newton, has two small fractures in his lower back. Newton was forced to miss last week’s game due to the injury but he’ll give it a go on Sunday, which I’m sure has created plenty of excitement amongst the Cleveland defenders. Look for the Browns to come after Newton, hitting him early and often in an attempt to force a mistake. And if Cam isn’t careful, the mistake will come: Cleveland ranks 7th in the NFL in passing defense and they lead the league in interceptions.
Three reasons to back Carolina
1. Carolina finally has it rolling after a slow start to the season, as they’ve won 2 straight games and now find themselves just a half-game out of first place in the NFC South. This week they host the disintegrating Browns, a team that’s lost 4 of its past 5 games and absorbed a 30-0 beating at the hands of Cincinnati a few days ago. These teams are headed in opposite directions. Place your bets accordingly.
2. In case you were hiding under a rock last week, let me fill you in on something: Johnny Football was finally given the keys to the car, so to speak, and he wrapped it around a telephone pole. Manziel threw for 80 yards, was intercepted twice, and led the team to a grand total of zero points in his first career start, and now he has to go on the road to face a Carolina team that desperately needs a win. And the Panthers have played very well on defense in recent weeks, holding 3 of their past 4 opponents below 20 points. For Johnny Manziel, this could be another long day in what may turn out to be a very short career.
3. Over the past few weeks the Panthers have returned to their bread-and-butter on offense: the running game. Jonathan Stewart is healthy and playing the best football of his career, rushing for over 300 combined yards in Carolina’s last three games. Stewart and the Panthers have a dream matchup this week, as only Tennessee has allowed more rushing yards than the Browns this season.
Prediction
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