5-1 NAP LAUNCHES PUNCHESTOWN: Daqman landed six winning bets in a row on the opening day of the Punchestown Festival yesterday, starting with a one-two in the opener and finishing with a 5-1 nap on Felix Yonger.
HE GOES 17-4 CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: The day produced a total profit of 42 points and sent him sweeping clear of Pricewise in their value challenge, taking the score to 17-4, with amazing value on BETDAQ, including 15.5 for a 10-1 scorer.
HE HITS 10-1 BIG-RACE WINNER: He had four win bets and two place successes, including a full win-20 place on the 14-1 runner-up in the opener. His big winner at 10-1 was headlined ‘He’s Some Article at 15.5 on BETDAQ’. In time order:
WON 8-13 Wish Ye Didn’t
2nd 14-1 Enniskillen (10.7-1 Ladbrokes forecast)
WON 1-6 Douvan
WON 10-1 Some Article (win and place at 15.5 on BETDAQ)
WON 5-1 Felix Yonger (nap at 7.6 on BETDAQ)
MORE! HEROES CAN MAKE UP FOR CHELTENHAM
3.40 Punchestown (Martinstown Opportunity Series Final) The last two winning claimers are eligible again for this: David Splaine (Captain Canada) and Jody McGarvey (Riviera Sun).
Both won on outsiders, which made it six out of seven at SPs between 12-1 and 25-1 since 2008.
These young riders can often be seen here kicking for home at the business end on this galloping track, and the stats indicate a good trade opportunity if you can find the right long-shot.
How about a winner on the course, back to his right trip, very well NH bred (Oscar out of a Supreme Leader mare), with a trainer in form and a young rider who has landed 23 races already this season? Just a tilt on BETDAQ at 10.5 Oscar Knight.
4.20 Punchestown The last four winners had run at the Fairyhouse meeting immediately prior to this. Gerdago, Identity Thief, Marchese Marconi, On Fiddlers Green, Prince Of Scars and Total Recall were all there (I recall).
Gerdago drops from decent efforts at Grade-2 level, with Ken Condon’s stable doing well right now. On Fiddlers Green is a pacesetter who could last out into a place on the better surface.
Prince Of Scars is lightly traced for Gigginstown but their number one must surely be Identity Thief (under the talented Bryan Cooper) who was a stand-out in the BETDAQ market this morning, with only the experienced Sadlers Risk posing any threat.
But has Identity Thief done enough to warrant the short price? I thought Marchese Marconi (McManus-owned and unlucky to unseat when winning his prep race) looked a better bet at 9.8 over my brioche (yes, I got the brioche out after yesterday’s success).
4.55 Punchestown A cracking Grade-1 novice hurdle, in which the 11 declared have reached the first two 43 times in the last year, with five of them Graded winners.
What makes it doubly difficult is that most of the Irish form is at 2m 4f, and the only winner over 3m at Graded level is English-raider Thistlecrack, an 8.8 offer in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
By Kayf Tara out of an Ardross mare, his breeding is a recipe for guts and stamina, though Roi Des Francs (favourite) didn’t run his race against him at Aintree.
There is precious little between Roi Des Francs, Killultagh Vic, No More Heroes and Shaneshill, if you weight adjust their collateral form at Cheltenham and Navan, though Shaneshill is given the official top rating on 154.
His second to Douvan at Cheltenham lifted him 13lb. That was over 2m, a totally different ball game to the 3m stamina test today, albeit Willie Mullins admitted he’d gone for the wrong race at Cheltenham.
But I think you have to take the best 3m form, instead of guessing which of the others will get the trip.
That makes it a contest between the classy improver Thistlecrack and the unlucky (hampered) Albert Bartlett third, No More Heroes, who already holds a verdict over Shaneshill over shorter and scoped badly when behind Killultagh Vic when favourite at Leopardstown earlier.
COSSACK’S BIG CHANCE TO HIT THE BIG TIME
5.30 Punchestown (Gold Cup) Winners of this in the decade have gone on to take two Grand Nationals at Aintree and two Gold Cups at Cheltenham. So, if you find the right one, watch your winnings grow!
I can’t forget the pained expression on R uby Walsh’s face after a seemingly perfect Gold Cup on the horse he rode like the winner, Djakadam, only to find the pacesetting Coneygree still had petrol left in the tank.
How much did that take out of Djakadam? Will he – or for that matter, the third horse home, Road To Riches – be the same today? Or ever the same again!
The BETDAQ market splits the two with Don Cossack. His only success around today’s kind of trip was in a slow-run race here at Punchestown (2m 7f) in the autumn.
But the handicapper says he’s a 20lb better horse since that day and he now looks ready to be stepped back up to 3m, even to the extent of a crack at the Gold Cup next season.
Ballynagour showed a lot of improvement at Aintree and gave Silviniaco Conti a race but he is not reliable.
On decent ground, I’ll take the Gordon Elliott chance with Don Cossack, assuming he might nip in and grab this while Djakadam and Road To Riches have the question-mark over them.
6.05 Punchestown (Champion NH Flat Race) Willie Mullins, four out of seven in this, is mob-handed to mount a defence. Be warned that three of his four winners were not clear favourites.
Three of those successful were the mount of Philip Mullins who is on Bellshill today but the same question mark hangs over him: have trips to England for both the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals left their mark?
Four-year-olds have won it back to back in the decade. So has Noel Meade. So has Nina Carberry. And here she is on a dark four-year-old, once raced (once won) Disko for the same Noel Meade. ‘Could be anything’ I hear the cry.
6.40 Punchestown (Guinness Chase) All ages and weights, and all sorts of prices, take this. But younger horses with light burdens have taken five of the last seven.
So it could be Gold Bullet’s chance (at 9.2 in the BETDAQ orange this morning) to get back into the limelight, back to form recently when dropped back to today’s distance after a trip too far when well backed at Cheltenham (eased when beaten).
The grey Baby Mix (12.5 offers) is on a similar mission to regain his potential place in the top flight after a long absence.
STABLE-FORM WARNING: LIMATO AN ASCOT LAY
2.25 Ascot Gifted Master won well at Newmarket, but Log Out Island is highly regarded by Team Hannon, and they have recent form figures in this of 12114.
3.00 Ascot The Hannons hope that Shagah’s poor start corresponds to her dismal debut on the same course – Kempton Polytrack – last year, from which she quickly opened her account at Goodwood and climbed to a May Hill Stakes place.
Brian Meehan is off to a flyer and Montalcino returns to the scene of her last run in September before Pulcinella ran a cracker in defeat in a Newmarket nursery.
3.30 Ascot (Sagaro Stakes) Sir Michael Stoute has won this three times since 2006, including when he launched Estimate in her Gold Cup season.
The trainer is noted for improving his older horses but his handicapper Stomachion has to take a big leap forward – of around a stone – if he is to make his mark in the Pattern, at the age of five.
Pallasator (goes well fresh) won the Brown Jack Stakes on firm and was second in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day on heavy ground.
But I’m looking among the emerging four-year-olds, where there are half a dozen possibilities of a Gold Cup horse.
Of this group, Mizzou, Deuce Again and Wakea are the least exposed and, despite John Gosden being double-handed, I would be most hopeful of Mizzou, who raced over shorter last season as if this step up in trip would reveal his engine.
4.05 Ascot (Pavilion Stakes) The stable plan for Burnt Sugar was a Group 1 at Royal Ascot but nothing like that shows on his entries now, and it’s Beacon who seems to be the one for the Commonwealth Cup at the royal meeting.
However, both were very easy to back this morning, as Limato went clear in the BETDAQ market, with the only other one lighting up the orange, Strath Burn, whom Charles Hills has always hoped was another Equiano (his sire).
Limato was four from four last year, breaking into the lower echelons of the Pattern when winning the Listed 2-y-o Trophy at Redcar. Today is the next step up the ladder.
But, like Don Poli’s flop at Punchestown yesterday, we are warned in advance that this Pavilion Stakes is a graveyard for favourites (one out of nine).
Limato’s stable is without a winner in the last fortnight and has had just the one success among 21 losers this year so far. I failed to lay Don Poli yesterday, and maybe Limato is my redemption song.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.5pts win MIZZOU (3.30 Ascot)
BET 2pts win OSCAR KNIGHT (3.40 Punchestown)
LAY 5pts LIMATO (4.05 Ascot)
BET 2.2pts win MARCHESE MARCONI and 1pt win (stakes saver) IDENTITY THIEF (4.20 Punchestown)
LAY 5pts SHANESHILL, and BET 6.6pts win (nap) NO MORE HEROES and 2.5pts win THISTLECRACK (4.55 Punchestown)
BET 6.6pts win DON COSSACK (5.30 Punchestown)
BET 4pts win DISKO (6.05 Punchestown)
BET 2.4pts win GOLD BULLET, and 1.7pts win and place BABY MIX (6.40 Punchestown)
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