BRAGGING RIGHTS WITH 50-POINT NAP: Daqman was in win-and-place form at York yesterday with a big-odds attack, capped with a nap on his bull’s-eye bet, Bragging (WON 100-30), which he described before the race as a ‘Pattern-race possible.’ He landed 50 points with one bet.
19.5 NOTCH MORE BIG BETDAQ VALUE: It was a day so close to perfect, as Top Notch Tonto (2nd 16-1 from 19.5 on BETDAQ) just failed to last out for another 50 points, and Daqman also had a place return from New Providence (2nd 8-1 from 12.5), updating his scores to:
* CHALLENGE: Daqman 97, Pricewise 35
* VALUE: Bull’s-Eye Bets: + 265 points
* MAXIMUM: Banker bets + 78.73 points
LAHAAG HUGE ON BETDAQ AT A VALUE 17.0
1.55 York Four of the last five winners had already finished in the frame on the course, with York form at York underlined yet again yesterday by Short Squeeze catching my Top Notch Tonto as they passed the post. ‘Tonto’ just needed a shower or two of rain (forecast for today).
Salutation, Wigmore Hall, Esteaming, Chancery, Communicator, Pearl Castle and Lahaag have all run well on the Knavesmire before now.
Chancery won this last year with ease from a slightly weaker field but he’s had seven races this year, and they usually need to come fresher to these big handicaps (Short Squeeze had raced three times this season, ‘Tonto’ four).
Three of those with York form, Esteaming, Lahaag and Pearl Castle are on this lightly-raced list, too, along with Zaidiyn (hooded first time), Semeen, Proud Chieftain, Stomachion and Dolphin Village.
Salutation has had a good season on turf but it has cost him a rise of a pound short of a stone since winning on Polytrack in March, and he’s drawn out wide here.
Lahaag, on the other hand, handled by this season’s conqueror, John Gosden, has been dropped 8lb since the Spring. Semeen did it smoothly at Ascot but can you believe Shergar Cup form, with its game of musical saddles among unknown riders?
Note that only eight of the 20 here – Chancery, Communicator, Dolphin Village, Glenard, Lahaag, Salutation and Wigmore Hall – have won at this level.
I’m going to bet in adjacent stalls: Lahaag in 11 to beat his neighbour in 10 Stomachion, who is ‘disguised’ after not enjoyed the undulating tracks at Goodwood and Epsom. He needs steering to the rail (hangs left-handed sometimes). I took 17.0 (huge value) and 9.0 respectively on BETDAQ this morning.
2.30 York (Lonsdale Cup) Yet again, York for York is often the key. Eight of the last nine winners had previously won or been placed at on the course
On that score, Cavalryman, High Jinx and Times Up have centre stage, but can we leave out 2013 Gold Cup winner, Estimate – second this year – or the lightly-raced Irish mare, Pale Mimlosa?
Estimate was all at sea on the undulating Goodwood track behind Cavalryman last time but strikes me as a mare who needs all of the Gold Cup trip to unwind the clockwork of her stamina.
Angel Gabrial was well behind Cavalryman at Goodwood but has improved (officially) 18lb since the Spring and is within striking distance now of a lesser Group race, though further improvement cannot be ruled out today.
Times Up is eight now and his defeat of High Jinx for his second Doncaster Cup last year was in poor time. Certerach was lucky to beat a hampered Cavarlyman in Dubai.
BETDAQ is a big help this morning with offers adding up to a punter-friendly 102% as I write, and I could get better than 7-2 Pale Mimosa this morning, where Ladbrokes were 5-2.
Pale Mimosa, Galtres Stakes winner at York, swerved the Gold Cup after being beaten by Leading Light at Navan but looked a Group stayer in the making that day. Showers will help her chance of stepping into the big time.
3.05 York Top Notch Tonto misses this after being let loose yesterday but, if the forecast showers arrive, Brian Ellison will wish he’d held on to him one day more.
Off 108, Tonto would have been high in the ratings here, though there is a 110 overall mark still clinging to Penitent and the three-year-old Cable Bay has 114.
Cable Bay was fourth in the Gimcrack at this meeting a year ago, then second in the Dewhurst but we haven’t seen him since October. He’ll go down as one of Jamie Spencer’s last Pattern-race rides of his career.
Otherwise, only Ertijaal, Glory Awaits and That Is The Spirit (showers will help) and Penitent (needs plenty of rain) have won at this Listed level.
The shape of the race for me is early showings for Mushir, Highland Colori and Penitent – all drawn low – with That Is The Spirit taking over in the straight, and the drive of Richard Hughes hanging on in there under attack from Rerouted (112 rating and at his best trip ) for Christophe Soumillon.
COUGAR CAN POUNCE IN THE NUNTHORPE
3.40 York (Nunthorpe Stakes) In the 1980/90s, three-year-olds won this 50% of the time but didn’t figure this century until back-to-back wins in 2010-11, one at 20-1, the other at 100-1.
Yet they had two things in common which you’d think would have made them much warmer orders: both had recently run at Group level and both had been placed on the Knavesmire before.
Such is the quality of this year’s race that the six three-year-olds today have all done well at Group level, but only Astaire, G Force and Hot Streak have previously figured at York.
Shea Shea and Sole Power, Nunthorpe second and third last year, meet again, with Christophe Soumillon over to ride Shea Shea, who ran way below par (had an infection), 11th to Sole Power in the Kings Stand but is 6-2 up on Sole Power in their races together.
And Sole Power’s trainer, Edward Lynam, echoing an Aidan O’Brien message about Australia earlier in the week, says he doesn’t think Sole Power is quite in the same form as at Ascot.
The link with the three-year-olds is that Hot Streak was third that day but his best form has been with cut in the ground. The same can be said of Rangali, though the ground was officially good at Chantilly when he beat Abbaye runner-up Catcall last time.
Cougar Mountain will love the fast pace. He did not get it when stepping out of maiden company in to the Group-1 July Cup and Ladbrokes have him much shorter than any other bookmaker. Nice 9.2 on BETDAQ to go with Rangali at 11.5
4.20 York Team Hannon is 101 in this and Acaster Malbis has currently the best form, though is not entered up. Dissolution, on the other hand has Royal Lodge, Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy entries and looked very promising on the debut.
4.55 York Hugo Palmer had a cracking day yesterday with New Providence and Short Squeeze and sasdled the winner of this last year. Extremity is a horse going places and Ryan Moore has been booked.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes to win 20 points, unless otherwise stated):
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50 points): 6.25pts win STOMACHION, and 3pts win and place LAHAAG (1.55 York)
BET 5.7pts win PALE MIMOSA (2.30 York)
BET 2.6pts win THAT IS THE SPIRIT and 2.3pts win REROUTED (3.05 York)
BET 2.3pts win COUGAR MOUNTAIN and 1.9pts win RANGALI (3.40 York)
BET 6pts win DISSOLUTION (4.20 York)
BET 3.4pts win (nap) EXTREMITY (4.55 York)
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