NAP, NAP, NAP! THREE IN A ROW: Yes, he’s done it again! Daqman landed his nap yesterday for the third day in succession with Polamco (WON 5-2) and completed a double with Royal Palladium (WON 5-4), following Wednesday’s three doubles and a 20-1 treble. His trio of naps were:
WON 10-11 (The Tourard Man (banker)
WON 13-8 Pass The Time (nap)
WON 5-2 Polamco (nap)
90 POINTS PROFIT IN TWO DAYS: His selections over the last two days have produced 10 winning bets for a profit of around 90 points. The three naps are worth just over 100 points to 20-point level-stakes. He made it seven lays in a row on Monday.
VALUE TODAY: VALUE TOMORROW: Today Daqman spots value in the BETDAQ market and goes for early positions on Cheltenham’s Champion Chase, ahead of the best-known trial for the race, the Tingle Creek at Sandown. That race will be part of tomorrow’s value clash with Pricewise of the Racing Post.
UNBEATABLE BETDAQ BIG-RACE VALUE
What are you waiting for? The BETDAQ orange ante-post on the Champion Chase at Cheltenham added up to a stupendous 87% at the time of writing and was 90% when I checked again at 8 a.m.
That’s UNDERround. That’s 100 paid out for every 87 bet. That’s some value. Unbeatable. The BETDAQ you’re used to.. only better! Yet the winner at Cheltenham could be staring you in the face TOMORROW.
The Tingle Creek Chase is going for a Champion Chase hat–trick after both Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy followed on from Sandown with success at the festival in March.
And this morning this year’s Tingle Creek favourites, Balder Succes and God’s Own, are 10.0 and 21.0 (fluctuating to 19.0) respectively in that amazing orange for the championship.
Alongside that 21.0 for Cheltenham with Betdaq about the rapid improver, God’s Own, are fixed odds as low as 12-1 with one of the so-called Big Four bookmakers for the Champion Chase, and Balder Succes is only 6-1 in several places.
So you have double the bonus ante-post, with offers at value and in a punters’ ‘book’. And you have the current Cheltenham favourites under a cloud, Sprinter Sacre not seen for nearly a year (misses the Tingle Creek) and Sire De Grugy absent since April. He’d already had two races at this time of the season last year.
This column backed both Balder Succes to win 50 points ante-post at 10.0 and took the 21.0 God’s Own to win 100. We’ll split the difference on his offers about that one and record the bet as 20.0.
Whichever one of those two – Balder Succes or God’s Own – wins the Tingle Creek, he must surely challenge the absentee pair at the front of the market for this year’s championship.
When Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre won it, the race had Total SPs of 112% and 115%. That’s 100-112 and 100-115, compared with between 100-87 and 100-90 of the current BETDAQ offers.
‘TARA’ NAPPED TO MAKE HER POINT
12.50 Sandown This hasn’t produced much in the past but could do so today in the shape of the strapping ex-French Bivouac, described as ‘exciting’ by Nicky Henderson and likely to be at home on the soft-heavy ground.
Another newcomer, Storm Force Ten, is a ‘grand’ horse, according to Andrew Balding, saddling a rare jumps runner.
Gary Moore won this last year with a penalised animal and Baron Alco was cool in disposing of two previous winners over CD.
But Baraka De Thaix was third in the (Graded) Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham last month and, in receipt of 10lb., should come out on top of the exposed pair and test the good work that Bivouac has done at home.
1.20 Sandown This could also throw up something decent, with trainers Henderson and Tim Vaughan looking forward to In Fairness and Liberty Court respectively, both reckoned fine chasing prospects.
Howlongisafoot (prefers top of the ground) and In Fairness were fifth and sixth in a big-field hurdle at Cheltenham last month. Liberty Court goes particularly well when fresh, and is big at 12.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
Sir Mangan, Generous Ransom and Josies Orders have already been tested over fences without pulling up any trees.
1.55 Sandown Winners of this race have gone on to big-time results at the Cheltenham Festival, but not in the same year. It’s even produced a Grand National winner at a later date.
Clearly this 2m 4f with its uphill finish takes some getting for a youngster, and the winner should go firmly into your notebook as a prospective future stayer of some distinction.
Picking that winner in advance is a tough task, with only 2.7 points separating four of the five runners – Third Act is the ‘rag’ – in the BETDAQ orange. They have shared 12 wins among them already.
It could be a battle of two greys. The first of them, Vyta Du Roc has won a Grade-2 novice at Cheltenham, which makes him a standout in the ratings but this is a step up in trip, nominated by jockey Barry Geraghty but not borne out in the pedigree, and he has to give weight all round.
But the grey mare Tara Point, a very fluent hurdler, is suited by the conditions of today’s race, getting the sex allowance. A big beast, Tara is hard to get fit, by Paul Nicholls’ own admission, so her Exeter success will have brought her on no end.
2.30 Sandown (Future Stars Chase) Not so distinguished as the previous race, this boldly claims a ‘future stars’ status but the winners in the last three years have failed to score again under Rules. Not a one.
Corrin Wood is better off at the weights ,though he beat Black Thunder at the start of the year, but Black Thunder has improved since then. Corrin Wood returns from a long absence but goes well fresh. Interesting to watch but not from a betting viewpoint.
TAKE ‘FLYING’ LEAP FOR 11.0 OFFERS
1.40 Exeter Wilton Milan was a clear favourite this morning after Jack Sherwood steered him to a runaway win at Newbury but that was against other conditional jocks and the form of such events – and of amateur-riders’ races – doesn’t always stand up.
Workbench is a solid alternative, with the Exeter ground drying in his favour, and dropped from class 2 for the first time in five starts. Form since the end of August on good ground 12113.
Workbench has since run fourth (promoted to third) over a trip too far in a race won by the disqualified The Young Master, whose form relates to Balbriggan and Alfie Spinner, both Becher candidates tomorrow.
3.20 Exeter (Devon Marathon) With the sun shining on Haldon Hill, I shall oppose the favourite here, Gorgehous Lliege, like many of Venetia’s a soft-heavy horse, and up 16lb on December of last year. Reblis is another mudlark.
Adrenalin Flight acts on any going but has been very disappointing since fourth in the National Hunt Chase (4m) at Cheltenham and was well adrift of ‘Gorgehous’ on the last day.
But has the handicapper taken a chance dropping him back to that Cheltenham mark, visored first time? Or has he ‘gone?’ Seamus Mullins’ yard is in peak form, sending out eight out of 10 placed (still standing), including three winners, in the last nine days.
If the ground dries even further, topweight Benbane Head cannot be discounted, as a class-2 3m hurdler who is taking this extended trip for the first time over fences, with Richard Johnson booked; 9lb below his hurdles mark.
Flying Award is proven in these events, winner of the Highland National and the Devon National off today’s mark. He’s been badly out of sorts so far this backend but punters should note that’s been his ‘form’ leading up to previous marathon successes.
Only once in the decade has this race been won by a youngster (below aged 8) and there are a plethora of them here, including class-4 novices American legend, with Tony McCoy aboard, Buckhorn Tom and Milosam, who has been a massive improver during the last 12 months (73 to 102)
But this race is usually won by dependable older horses, carrying 11st 2lb to 11st 10lb, where Benbane Head (7.0 this morning) catches the eye, unexposed at the trip.
Flying Award’s stable had a winner at the last Exeter meeting and he is big at 11.0 on BETDAQ to (literally) leap back to life, as has happened before.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Stakes 1-10 show the strength of the bet)
BET 5pt win IN FAIRNESS and 1pt win and place LIBERTY COURT (1.20 Sandown)
BET 4pts win WORKBENCH and 2pts win (stakes saver) WILTON MILAN (1.40 Exeter)
BET 7pts win (nap) TARA POINT (1.55 Sandown)
LAY 3pts GORGEHOUS LLIEGE and BET 4pts win BENBANE HEAD and 2pts win and place FLYING AWARD (3.20 Exeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Bivouac (12.50 Sandown), Workbench (1.40 Exeter) and Tara Point (1.55 Sandown)
ANTE-POST: TON-UP BET (to win 100): 5.2pts win GOD’S OWN 20.0 and BULLS’-EYE BET (to win 50) 5.5pts win BALDER SUCCES 10.0 (both Champion Chase, Cheltenham, March 11, 2015).
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