12-1 DAQMAN STRIKE AS BETDAQ OUTSIDERS FOIL THE FAVOURITE: Daqman opposed another short-priced favourite yesterday, claiming that five-days’ rest from his last win wasn’t enough for Innisfree Lad (unplaced 2-1), and taking 14.5 Cobolobo (WON 12-1) and 12.0 Crossley Tender (3rd 8-1) for terrific value on BETDAQ. Another value-odds pick at the same Exeter meeting was Lermoos Legend (2nd 8-1), beaten a nose.
WON 12-1 COBOLOBO (from 14.5 taken on BETDAQ)
ANY ADVANCE ON 306 POINTS PROFIT IN 12-9 VALUE-BETS LEAD: Daqman goes into the two-day Ascot meeting 12-9 up on winners against Pricewise with profits from their 10-point-a-bet value challenge: Daqman +306, Pricewise +290. But that’s at SP. Yesterday’s results illustrate just how much Daqman could have won at BETDAQ offers. More on that another time.
GABYNAKO NAPPED AT THE DISTANCE
⭕ 1.35 Navan This Grade-2 novice hurdle has a good record for quality in 10 years of winners which have all been 9-2 or lower at SP.
Willie Mullins, taking this six times in the decade, saddles Punchestown winner Fighter Allen, half-brother to Envoi Allen.
But feature of the market has been the gamble on Holymacapony, also impressive at Punchestown and reckoned on a formality prep for the Ballymore.
Fakiera and Ashdale Bob are both Navan CD winners but Gabynako could reverse defeats by Fakiera and Eskylane now he’s stepped up to 2m 4f, and he’s the one with too big a price in BETDAQ offers of 9.0.
TROOPER ON BETDAQ PARADE AT 9.8
⭕ 2.10 Navan (Tara Hurdle) With one exception in the decade winners of this Grade B were below the age of seven.
That stat dramatically reduces the field to five runners deserving your special attention, among them a Gordon Elliott four-year-old. Alfa Mix won it at that age last year.
The four-year-old is Elite Trooper Grey, placed twice here over the minimum at Navan in November but returning to the longer trip, similar to one at which he scored at Cork in October.
His best form to date is on good ground but he was an unlucky third in a Ladbrokes-sponsored hurdle over the minimum on today’s course when it was soft-heavy. BETDAQ 9.8.
King Alex is a horse with a big engine. His victory here at Navan in early November was middle leg of a hat-trick inside the month.
Jukebox Jive is better than the bare form but likely to be second fiddle to stablemate Western Run, who has won at 2m 3f and 2m 7f and has been given time to recover from a fall at Punchestown in October.
The price of 3m Point winner Good Man Jim is pure speculation that a year out at Closutton will have transformed this maiden-only winner. Are you going to bet against it?
SYMONDS CAN LAND SECOND GRADE 2
⭕ 2.30 Ascot (Supreme Trial) Nicky Henderson (4-9) dominates this but his former assistant Tom Symonds is no ordinary Joe, scoring 4-8 in the last week.
But, with market leaders are 5-9 in this top novices’ hurdle, the paper favourites No Ordinary Joe (Henderson) and Llandinabo Lad (Symonds) lost pole position this morning.
New favourite, narrowly, was Jonjo O’Neill’s Soaring Glory. Quiet-man Jonjo is on such a surge right now that even I made sense of him yesterday, with his training of all-the-way winner Cobolobo at 12-1 absolutely superb.
Soaring Glory has the advantage of more than a year on the track with 3-5 still standing, whereas No Ordinary Joe has been seen just the once, winning a bumper. And Joe is a Getaway.
I warned against them t’other day. I was talking about No Getaway, who was only fourth at Newbury on Wednesday, following expensive-to-follow Getaway Trump and jinxed The Big Breakaway from the same clan.
Joe may be No Ordinary member of the clan but I can’t put money on it, though Henderson has already hammered Soaring Glory with one of his called Dusart.
The best form in the book is when Llandinabo Lad (Symonds) went clear at Haydock from a winner of his previous two starts with a three-time winner in third!
Soaring Glory has won just one of three hurdles and fell the last day so I gave Symonds’ Lad the vote, despite his 5lb penalty, at BETDAQ 4.5 this morning to land Tom’s second Grade 2 after Song For Someone was a nice 6-1 winner for us on Saturday.
FIDDLER FAVOURED BY THE GROUND
⭕ 3.05 Ascot The Big Breakaway was beaten favourite at 2-9 at Exeter earlier in the month, running too freely but I have to concede that he was more than 30 lengths clear of the third horse home.
So Team Tizzard, who still have faith in him, have cause to cheer home Bold Plan in this novices’ chase – another Grade 2 today – since Bold Plan was the one who turned over Breakaway at Exeter.
It’s truly a bold plan by Evan Williams to bring him here today, giving weight to Fiddlerontheroof, who is rated 10lb higher. That makes the gap to be bridged between them a pound short of a stone!
Fiddler’s form on soft-heavy since March last year is 1110, that ‘0’ being the Supreme Novice Hurdle. So he’s in his element today, after defeats on top of the ground.
It’s another bold plan by Nicky Henderson to pitch his smart hurdler Allart into this fray. There is no encouragement for chasing in his pedigree.
Pic D’Orhy matches the hurdles ratings of the front two here but his career over fences has still to take off (literally) after stumbling at Market Rasen then actually falling here at Ascot when seemingly going easily over Chantry House, who was around five lengths in front of Allart in the Supreme.
Pic D’Orhy (at 4.9) and Bold Plan (8.3) were easy to back on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE this morning, with most confidence in Allart (3.8) and Fiddlerontheroof (3.0),
It’s a fascinating race in which you could be bold and alert and still pick the wrong one! Fiddler is probably the safest conveyance on this surface.
1.35 Navan (win 20, nap)
BET 2.50pts win GABYNAKO
2.10 Navan (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win ELITE TROOPER GREY
2.30 Ascot (win 10)
BET 3.25pts win LLANDINABO LAD
3.05 Ascot (win 10)
BET 5pts win FIDDLERONTHEROOF
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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