DUBLIN FESTIVAL: WILLIE ALL THE WAY: Daqman checks out Willie Mullins’ winners over the weekend Dublin Racing Festival. Which races are his best? The answer seems to be Willie all the way, long odds or short-priced favourites.
TODAY: Selections from Catterick, Lingfield and Newcastle with Daqman recommending a 1 point win treble on all three!
LONG AND SHORT OF MULLINS MAGIC
It’s a soft touch. With 51 winners in the decade from the 15 championship events at the Dublin Festival, this weekend no doubt belongs to Willie Mullins again. Here’s his winning haul, race by race:
SATURDAY: 7-4-5-3-2-1-4 with the weakest races the handicap hurdle (3.40) and the handicap chase (4.10).
SUNDAY: 0-6-5-0-4-9-1-2 where the weakest are the mares’ handicap hurdle (1.10), the Leopardstown chase, also a handicap (2.40), and the mares’ bumper (4.40).
The Irish will be watering the chase course though it’s already ‘yielding’ (good to soft).
But how can punters respond to a likely soft touch for Mullins; stick to the Grade 1 races? His winners: 7-4-5-3 on Saturday and 6-5-4-9 on Sunday.
The safest Saturday staking plan would be ‘stop at a winner’ through the Grade 1 sequences but they are so strong I would venture a double-stakes start, adding one point to each subsequent Grade 1 bet until you win.
If you win early, start a new sequence with the same plan or use your winnings to stake on your banker later in the day.
Sunday’s Grade 1 events are even stronger for the Closutton stable. I would start with double your usual stake and add one if the first two lose, again reverting to a new sequence when you win.
What about the races where he does badly? In the 3.40 Saturday, he’s had runners at 5-6, 4-1 (twice), 8-1, 10-1, 12-1, 14-1, 16-1 (three times), 18-1, 20-1, 28-1, 33-1 (twice), 40-1 (three times), 50-1, 66-1 (twice)
His winners started 5-6 and 40-1, with the outcome a level-stakes profit of 12 points to one-point units. Ah, that’s because he had the 40-1 winner, you say.
Well, in the 4.40 mares’ bumper on Sunday, he’s had winners at 16-1 and 18-1 from 11 starters in the five years it’s been run. That’s 25 points profit to a one-point level stake.
Didn’t I say that bumper was his weakest race on Sunday! Silly me. It seems it’s Willie all the way, isn’t it.
COLMINE WON’T BE HOLD UP
⭕ 1.40 Catterick Hold Up La Colmine’s job has been made easier by the defection of Cuzco Du Mathan (and the commentators job for that matter) and the Philip Hobbs trained raider should be good enough to record his first win over hurdles.
A point winner, he has shown enough in three starts over hurdles at Chepstow (twice) and Lingfield last time out to suggest he can land this – especially if front running tactics are deployed which seem likely. The better ground might also prove to be a positive.
The danger now looks to be Swallows Song who was a narrow winner of a bumper at Sedgefield before making a satisfactory course and distance debut here on New Year’s Day. Whilst never look like landing a blow – he did finish nicely clear of the remainder of the field.
Ballygeary also has to come into the reckoning on his hurdling debut. He showed ability when second in a Sedgefield bumper.
TIME TO OPPOSE CHRONOGRAPH
⭕ 1.50 Lingfield Chronograph probably sets the form standard but not at a particularly high level and the Hugo Palmer trainer runner looks opposable at a shade over evens on Betdaq Betting Exchange.
He comes into this on the back of two placed efforts at Wolverhampton but I was’t convinced he improved on his second start and more might be needed here against some unexposed sorts.
Latin Verse looks the one for Ralph Beckett. He ran green on debut here last month but was an eye-catcher in the closing stages staying on into fifth when the race was all over. The step up to 1m 2f should help and the runner-up from that race has franked the form with a subsequent win.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
⭕ 6.15 Newcastle I wasn’t expecting Latest Edition to be odds against so have to step in and make it the final selection of the day, particularly with the Karl Burke stable flying at the moment (5 winners from their last 21 runners).
She improved significantly from her Southwell debut to finish a close second to the odds-on Man Of Eden over course and distance two weeks ago and shouldn’t need to improve much more to land this.
Parish Councillor and Flash Bardot both showed promise on their Southwell and Wolverhampton debuts respectively and should fight out the podium spots.
1.40 Catterick (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win HOLD UP LA COLMINE
1.50 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.7pts win LATIN VERSE
6.15 Newcastle (win 10)
BET 7.9pts win LATEST EDITION
PLUS 1 point win treble above three
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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