THERE’S GOLD IN THE BETDAQ ORANGE: It’s Gold Cup day, and undaunted by a less than cheerful Cheltenham so far, Daqman picks his 1-2-3 at 6.2, 13.0 and 22.0 in the punter-friendly BETDAQ orange this morning.
DAQMAN’S 25-12 CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: Despite more places without winning (albeit Laurina WON 4-7), our man has over the week edged further in front of Pricewise who is also suffering. It’s 25-12 to Daqman, with +17 to -35 the returns to a single-unit stake. Today’s headlines:
ANOTHER APPLE TURNOVER
TIGER IS BURNING BRIGHT
‘CHEF’ HAS ’EM ALL COOKED
HE’S ON THE ROAD TO GOLD
BERLAIS LOOKS BIG AT 15.0
ANOTHER APPLE TURNOVER
1.30 Cheltenham (Triumph Hurdle)
STATS A poor field, with so many yards not wanting to risk their four-year-olds on the deep terrain.
Favourites drew a blank for years then in the last three seasons have won every time.
The Irish won with monotony. Now they are just 3-10 in the decade. Nicky Henderson (3 wins) is the leading trainer in that time, and has bagged the prize six times overall.
FORM Henderson saddles three-in-a-row Cheltenham winner, Apple’s Shakira, against four starters for Willie Mullins, almost half the field!
Though not always fluent, Redicean landed back-to-back success, then completed the hat-trick in a BETDAQ race at Kempton, his jumping transformed by the skills and patience of Alan King and his team, prompting the handicapper to hike him to 149, past everything else in this.
But that means he is still 4lb badly in with Apple’s Shakira because of her fillies’ allowance. Her form was well franked when her Triumph Trial runner-up, Nube Negra, was third of a huge field for the Fred Winter on Wednesday.
Stormy Ireland, who also gets the sex allowance, may be the Mullins ace. Impressive how she quickened up on heavy at Fairyhbouse.
Mullins has already beaten Farclas with Mr Adjudicator, but Saldier’s form was let down this week by Mitchouka.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE: I’m looking at the result of the 2016 Triumph, when Shakira’s illustrioius sister, Apple’s Jade is the filly with the allowance.. And she’s beaten!
Now I’m back in 2011 and there’s a second favourite with the sex allowance, and she is also only second. In fact, a total of five with the fillies’ allowance all failed against the geldings in the decade.
I’m, therefore, taking a punt, laying Apple’s Shakira, snubbing the other filly, Stormy Ireland, and backing Redicean at 7.6 on BETDAQ this morning
TIGER IS BURNING BRIGHT
2.10 Cheltenham (County Hurdle)
STATS Eight wins out of 10 for horses aged five and six. W Mullins 4, P. Nicholls 2
FORM That makes Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Chesterfield a bit old for this but there was money for him at 33-1 into half that price after he beat the same runner-up in a bumper only 11 days ago.
The Mullins v Elliott, McManus v Gigginstown battle continues with Bleu Et Rouge v Duca De Thaix. Again Bleu Et Rouge is an older horse and his Newbury Hurdle form (second to Kalashnokov) has been let down.
Duca De Thaix makes his handicap debut on a favourable mark, 16lb better off with Sandsend for his defeat at Naas in January. But second and third in his debut win in Ireland at Limerick were modest.
The 2017 Fred Winter winner Flying Tiger (13.5 on BETDAQ) has less to do than when taking on Buveur d’Air and then Elgin in grades higher than today’s. Mohaayed was also in this races.
CHEF HAS THEM COOKED
2.50 Cheltenham (Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle)
STATS This young race got a boost though Bobs Worth in 2011. Last year’s winner, Penhill, won yesterday.
FORM Though Santini easily beat Chef Des Obeaux in December, Nicky Henderson runs both.
Santini has since beaten Black Op on this New course and Black Op made that look top class with a gallant second to Samcro in the Ballymore on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, Chef Des Obeaux has landed a hat-trick, including 15 lengths defeat of one which scored 18 lengths next time.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE In a 103% BETDAQ orange, I was able to get 5.1 Santini and 6.6 Chef Des Obeaux for a Henderson 1-2.
HE’S ON THE ROAD TO GOLD
3.30 Cheltenham (Gold Cup)
STATS Shock, horror, drama! Willie Mullins has never won the Gold Cup, and his main hope, according to the market, Killultagh Vic, has raced only three times over fences.
It’s P Nicholls 3, N Henderson 2, with five winning favourites in 12 seasons, but only one winner bigger than 8-1. Eight and nine year olds take eight from 10.
I asked weeks ago for 12-year-old Cue Card to be retired. Now I’m thinking: surely we’re not going to see those ever-presents Outlander, Tea For Two, Djakadam and Saphir Du Rheu again.
In truth only one of those is of a double-figure age but all seem to have been around for years, and that tells you they are nearly horses, not among the greats.
The last 17 Gold Cup winners had all taken a Grade 1 chase, which, from the remainder, deletes all bar Edwulf, Might Bite, Native River, Our Duke and Road To Respect.
FORM The runner-up Balko Des Flos yesterday boosted Road To Respect’s Christmas Chase win at Leopardstown (Outlander third, Edwulf pulled up). That’s the old Lexus which is a good pointer to gold.
Eight of the last 10 winners had already been placed at the festival and Road To Respect won the Plate here last season. Thought of as National horse so seems endowed with stamina.
Our Duke was also boosted this week by his runner-up at Gowran in February, Presenting Percy, but that was 2m 4f, and he was behind both Edwulf and Outlander in two 3milers before that. Has never been to Cheltenham
The worry about the RSA winner Might Bite is the ground though, after 12 runs being kept to good or good-to-soft, he won the King George on soft, albeit a weak one with the bridesmaid Double Shuffle (form 222) in second and, in third, the flat-track chaser Tea For Two (performs best at Kempton and Aintree).
Native River, second in the four-miler in 2016, was third in the Gold Cup last year after cutting out a lot of the work.
VERDICT/BETDAQ VALUE: We need a stamina horse, with Native River and Road To Respect the most likely to.
After the Lexus, the Ladbrokes Trophy (old Hennessy) is a good guide and the handicapper says the winner of it in early December, Total Recall has now improved a total of 27lb since October, do you recall.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Road To Respect 13.0 BETDAQ), Native River (6.2), Total Recall at 22.0 (any order tricast)
BERLAIS LOOKS BIG AT 15.0
4.10 Cheltenham (Foxhunter) Enda Bolger brings back dual winner On The Fringe two years on under Nina Carberry, with Bryony Frost spoiling the Irish party last season.
Bryony can no longer ride in this amateurs’ challenge cup but in-form Katy Walsh could star on Foxrock.
Bryony’s 2017 success came in a Paul Nicholls one-two, and the second horse home, Wonderful Charm, has Sam Waley-Cohen up this time around.
There’s a big word this morning for Points star Caid Du Berlais (William Biddick), winner of a chase at Cheltenahm and one-time Fred Winter runner-up. Looks big at 15.0 in the BETDAQ orange.
Another strong player from between the flags, Burning Ambition (Jamie Codd), was runner-up at Punchestown to Gilgamboa who beat Foxrock 10 lengths at Thurles.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Cheltenham (Double whammy)
BET 4.5pts to win 30 REDICEAN
LAY to win 4.5pts APPLE’S SHAKIRA
2.10 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 2.5pts win and place FLYING TIGER
2.50 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 7.25pts win SANTINI
BET 5.25pts win CHEF DES OBEAUX
3.30 Cheltenham
BET 4.5pts to win 50 and 4.5pts place ROAD TO RESPECT, nap
BET 5.75pts to win 30 NATIVE RIVER
4.10 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 8.25pts win BURNING AMBITION
BET 2pts win and place CAID DU BERLAIS
5.30 Cheltenham (to win 30)
BET 2.25pts win TOP GAMBLE
BET 2.25pts win BOUVREUIL
BET (to win 50) 2pts win and place FOXTAIL HILL
Fortune Cookies (1pt win and place on each)
2.50 DORTMUND PARK
3.30 TOTAL RECALL
4.50 FLAWLESS ESCAPE
Stick-in-the-Mud (1pt win and place)
4.50 FLAWLESS ESCAPE
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