20.0 POT AT GOLD IN THE BRONZE: Daqman debates the Ayr Bronze Cup today and thinks he’s found gold at 20.0, but his nap is at Newbury where he rates a ‘dark’ horse by name but not by nature, a better offer at 5.5 than it should be for splitting two Group-2 winners.

DAQMAN LEADS PRICEWISE 83-14: Tomorrow the Ayr countdown continues through Silver to the Gold Cup, and at Newbury there’s the Mill Reef Stakes. Daqman resumes his challenge to Pricewise with the scores Daqman 83, Pricewise 14 before the Bronze Cup today.


PIAZON POTENTIAL AT 20.0 IN THE BRONZE CUP

3.05 Ayr (Bronze Cup) Though the status of this ‘consolation consolation’ for the Ayr Gold Cup was raised to class 2 in 2013, the last two seasons have continued to see it won by class 4-5 horses. But this year the standard has shot up.

The 2014 winner, Expose, carried 9st 8lb off a rating of 82, and the 2013 winner 8st 11lb off 74. Today both would have missed the cut.

The bottomweight Tiger Jim races off 84 and four older horses on 9st 8lb are 90-rated horses, all certified class 2-3 animals.

In fact, 17 in this field have scored at those levels, with only a 7lb parameter between top and bottom of this handicap.

A live illustration of the quality today is revealed by My Name Is Rio, third last year off 84, carrying 9st 10lb but, though rated 6lb higher now, has 2lb less in the saddle on 9st 8lb.

Incidentally, I thought Tiger Jim had a good chance on form but Ladbrokes were giving him away at 20.0, when other big firms were offering only 11-1 and 12-1.

The results by stall of the Bronze in its six seasons shows winners from 24 or higher, 10 or lower. Like a hand of pontoon, the 14 in the middle may as well have folded.

Fast Shot (stall 9), who was fifth in the Ayr Gold Cup last year off 96, and second in the Silver in 2013, has struggled this term but, blinkered first time, could be on target, dropped to the Bronze, 12lb lower in the ratings.

Richard Fahey hogs the high numbers, with Supplicant (19), Arctic Feeling (21), seventh in the Silver Cup last year, and Gramercy (24). But there’s also Great St Wilfrid third Piazon (20) and New Bidder (22), attempting an Ayr hat-trick and with Graham Lee doing the steering.

Best handicapped horse in the race is Bertiewhittle (in the 25 gate), 16lb lower than when running in the top handicaps in the Spring of 2014, but he’d need some driving to drop back a furlong and win this cavalry charge.

Best of the three-year-olds could be the improver Dragon King (stall 15), a winner three times from seven starts who is highly regarded by Michael Dods.

My short-list: (high numbers) Bertiewhittle, Dragon King, New Bidder, Piazon (low numbers) Fast Shot and My Name Is Rio. The common denominator among those six is trainer Dods, who is responsible for My Name Is Rio and Dragon King.

I’m taking two younger horses with scope for improvement: adjacent in the handicap, Dragon King and Piazon (20.0 early mouse) could well be adjacent at the finish.


FAST AND FURIOUS LOOKS WELL HANDICAPPED

2.30 Ayr Only once in double-figure fields over the last nine seasons has the winner’s weight dropped below 8st 13lb. You need to be on the cream at the top of the handicap.

Sahreej has to prove himself over the extra furlong, with extra weight on different ground, after winning over the minimum at Newbury on heavy.

But Fast And Furious looks a blot on the handicap, and in the market, offered at 10.0, a longer price than Donjuan Triumphant, whom he meets at levels, yet is 8lb in front of him on a line through Candelisa.

Obviously there are several with potential in this who could upset my calculations but it’s helpful to be with the high draw, unless we learn otherwise in time for the Bronze.

3.40 Ayr (South Ayrshire Cup) They win this at all ages, all weights and all prices. But two stats may be helpful: four of the last five had already raced in September; recent winners have been drawn high (14 plus) or very low (stalls 3 and 4).

So that’s, down the card, Fredricka, Cosmic Chatter, Miss Mullberry, Searchlight, Apricot Sky, Thorntoun Lady, Landing Night, Money Team, Pea Shooter, Straits Of Malacca and Anonymous Lady.

Thorntoun Lady (huge at 21.0 this morning), whose stable landed an Ayr double yesterday, has a weight pull which should guarantee reversing Haydock placings with Apricot Sky.

Noble Asset (16.0 offers), a sequence horse at this time last year, including wining at Ayr, hasn’t had the luck in running recently, but is another capable of winning this. Then, so are several others, and it’s all about fitness on the day and luck in running.


LATHOM’S SOLID PLACE CLAIMS AT BETDAQ 11.0

4.15 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes) Garswood (Richard Fahey) is among three winners of this since 2007 to go on to Group success, and Fahey has Supersprint scorer Lathom as his sole representative today.

Dr Doro is likely to take the low numbers along, among them Dream Destination (already Group-3 placed), but the grey filly Easton Angel (in stall 16) has been thereabouts at a high level, second in the Queen Mary and third in the Lowther Stakes.

Fillies have won three of the last four and, as well as Easton Angel have Promised Money, Quiet Reflection and ThatsallImsaying among nine running against the colts in this.

In the belief that Easton Angel will have to do all her own work on the high side, I will have a bit win and place on Lathom, who can choose which side to travel, from his middle draw.

Lathom (11.0 on BETDAQ, as I write) ran a stinker at York but, after his Supersprint success, was unlucky in the Molecomb at Goodwood, when hampered and knocked out of his stride.


EMERALD CAN SPARKLE IN NEWBURY LISTED

3.55 Newbury (Haynes, Hanson and Clark Stakes) Another top two-year-olds test, which Marcus Tregoning (Tukhoom) has won twice before in the decade, once with a first-timer.

Team Hannon has also taken it twice recently and the last six to score had already won a race, like his Blackout.

The market says that Sandown winner Special Season has an easy here, just like Easton Angel. So my saver to the 4.15 Ayr bet is a double on these two.

4.25 Newbury The six-year-olds Ascription and Gabriel’s Lad are struggling to find their form after long lay-offs, while Hathal and Jallota have still to step successfully out of handicap company.

It’s a tight-looking Listed contest but I’m giving a last chance to Dark Emerald (5.5 this morning on BETDAQ).

The grey split Kodi Bear and Custom Cut at Salisbury before both won Group 2 events, and then was unlucky to have to give weight to Champions Mile hope, Richard Pankhurst, going down in a photo finish.

DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET 2pts win and place FAST AND FURIOUS (2.30 Ayr)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 7pts win DRAGON KING and 2.5pts win and place PIAZON (3.05 Ayr)
BET 1.3pts win and place NOBLE ASSET, and 1pt win and place THORNTOUN LADY (3.40 Ayr)
BET 2pts win and place LATHOM (4.15 Ayr)
BET 4.4pts win (nap) DARK EMERALD (4.25 Newbury)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double SPECIAL SEASON (3.55 Newbury) and EASTON ANGEL (4.15 Ayr)


gplus3NEW !!!

You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+

For further details – CLICK HERE


£20 FREE BET

605x200


Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.

Bet via BETDAQ mobile below

Scroll up for Tips