WHAT IS THE ‘UNUSUAL’ IRISH DERBY THREAT TO SANTIAGO? Aidan O’Brien yesterday declared his number one for tomorrow’s Irish Derby: Queen’s Vase winner Santiago, the choice of Seamie Heffernan, but he hinted at a possible shock when he added: ‘It’s an unusual season and unusual things could happen.’ Daqman’s analysis of the runners in BETDAQ Tips tomorrow will search for an ‘unusual’ result from the best outsider.
ABC GUIDE: WHAT’S THE OUTSIDER FOR THE PITMAN’S DERBY? First Daqman presents his ABC for tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate, the old Pitman’s Derby. This time Daqman’s analysis is based upon stats, past and current form and potential. He finds one already to take an early position in the race at around 16-1.
HIDDEN HORSE IN PITMAN’S DERBY
3.35 Newcastle tomorrow (Northumberland Plate) ABC guide
A: Age: Ten of the last 11 winners, and 16-20, have been aged six or younger.
B: Weight In keeping with the modern trend, winners have carried 9st 1lb to 9st 10b in shortish handicaps. But this year the 20 acceptors are in a long handicap of 24lb range – just like the old days – with the top weight on 9st 10lb. Which horses are well in?
C: Draw 21, 14, 9, 4, 1, 3, 3, 13, 11, 7 (six of the last eight from 1 to 9).
D: Course-and-distance winner
X: Trainer in form
‘Hidden horse’ over a trip. Lightly raced; stayed on here in November; given only one run as a stayer (won Wolver, 1m 6f). Well drawn. Potentially decent mark on third to Laafy (98) at Newbury 15 days back.
ACD Smart Champion
A winner here in February over CD at this level and, after dwelling at the start, came late on the scene in the Ascot Stakes, fourth beaten a length and a half. Top chance if over that race. Well drawn.
ACX Kings Advice
Sixth last year off 5lb lower mark but completed a double afterwards over 1m 6f when 2lb higher than today. Second in the Grand Cup at Doncaster over that trip 13 days ago. Well drawn.
AC Financial Conduct
Sixth in the Vase on this card last year; 9lb lower now but best hurdles form at extreme distance and unseated rider here in prep race for this on the first of the month. Well drawn.
Aimed at the stars (bombed in the 2019 Derby at 100-1) and only his maiden win to show for it, always a bad sign.
AC Just Hubert
Highly regarded (as a Melbourne Cup horse) and three out of four last year. Last of six first run gelded at Haydock 19 days ago. Well drawn and may do better.
Well drawn; winner on AW last time out for Dr Marwan Koukash. Has kept good company but aged six now and others may have improved past him (Dr Koukash also owns Magic Circle).
Steady improver; winner and placed on the course; good chance without being one to shout about.
Has improved a stone in the last year without attempting to step out of class 4, but Roger Varian is in fabulous form, and this is first run beyond 1m 6f. ‘Could be anything’ on such a learning curve.
Back-to-back wins already this year after wind surgery but up in the weights now and not raced beyond 1m 6f at age of five.
AX Caravan Of Hope
Collide’s stablemate has a high draw. Best form on soft-heavy turf but closely matched with Australis on their one-two at Wolver earlier this month.
Winner of the Vase on this card last year. Not won since and 9lb higher now but 4lb better for only half a length with Smart Champion on their one-two over the Newcastle CD in February.
AX Glencadam Glory
With John Gosden until Tim Easterby sent him prepping for this at Doncaster 13 days ago after a two-year-break. Not much success but kept to very high class, including in 2017 Derby.
CX Magic Circle
Chester Cup winner of 2018 has kept the highest company since, twice moving trainers. Last seen in the Ascot Gold Cup a year ago. He’s eight now.
ALSO RUN: AC Technological, A Mukha Magic, Sevenna Star, D Cosmelli, X Rainbow Dreamer, – Denmead
READY, WILLING AND ABEL
12.15 Doncaster A very early bet for me on Doncaster’s card but I can’t get away from the well handicapped Abel Handy.
The David O’Meara trained runner was a Group 3 winner as a two-year-old and has made a good start for his new stable with a third at Chelmsford and a neck runner-up at Ripon last time out. He races off the same mark today and O’Meara is ticking over very nicely with 10 winners in the last 14 days (18% strike rate).
Whilst not as pronounced as it was in the past – I’d still want a high draw over the minimum trip here so he’s fared best of all in this regard coming out of box 12.
Many of his rivals are going the other way in the handicap and look vulnerable off their new marks including hat-trick seeking National Anthem who races off a 5lb penalty for his narrow Ayr win on Monday.
David Barron is 0-18 over the last two weeks which is a negative mark for supporters of North Wind who did well at Haydock last time out and the booking of Ryan Moore is obviously eye-catching.
HAROME TO POWER HOME
12.45 Doncaster The second division of the sprint handicap and another play for me, this time with Harome who is another high drawn runner in 9.
The Roger Fell trained runner loves the fast ground and gave a huge hint of a return to form at Haydock last time out when sixth – despite getting hampered at the start.
North Wind (runs 12.15) was fifth that day so could boost the form further with a good run in the opener, but Harome should go well here in this easier company. The key though is the ground – of his six career successes five of them have come on a good to firm surface.
STILL DONNY – BUT AT NEWMARKET
2.45 Newmarket A decent looking fillies handicap which looks a little hotter than the official class 4.
Donnybrook remains progressive and she looks worth support here on her handicap debut for John Gosden whose form is as hot as the weather.
A winner at Yarmouth, she didn’t lose much in defeat at Leicester last time out when a close second to the odd-on Esprit Rose. A starting mark of 82 looks fair enough and she appeals more than the current BETDAQ favourite Caspian Queen who is exposed enough to be within the grips of the handicapper.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 4.3pts win (nap) ABEL HANDY (12.15 Doncaster)
BET 2.6pts win HAROME (12.45 Doncaster)
BET 2.8pts win DONNYBROOK (2.45 Newmarket)
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