DREAM WINNER NOT SO RICH AS DAQMAN OUTSIDERS HIT THE WIRE: For the second day running yesterday, Daqman was able to cover a large slice of his losses (with Rich Dream WON 8-11, Echo Beach 2nd 15-2). But, like the 6-1 and 7-2 places on the opening day, Echo Beach would have been the better winner and the one that hurt most when it hit the wire was Vivionn (2nd 6-1) as the nap. Today’s feature race on Day 3 at Doncaster is the Doncaster Cup.
🔹 FRANKEL FILLY BIG AT BETDAQ 10.0
🔹 COUNTING ON CALCULATION AT 8.8
🔹 BUICK’S CHIEF CHANCE OF THE DAY
🔹 BULLISH ABOUT STEEL’S STAMINA
🔹 11.0 SELINO SUITED BY MARATHON
⚠️ TRIPLE VALUE TOMORROW: How you’ll get value THREE ways on St Leger and Irish Champion day.
FRANKEL FILLY BIG AT BETDAQ 10.0
⭕ 1.10 Doncaster Four-year-olds have beaten the Classic generation 3-1 in this fillies’ handicap but have only Sweet Celebration representing them today, 0-4 on turf and from a stable currently 1-18.
Sir Michael Stoute gives himself two chances, with Sorrel the better bred for the trip but with Almareekh the seeming improver who has already won at this level over the Town Moor CD.
Closer examination of Almareekh’s form is that she has beaten nothing well, farming the prizemoney in lower class. Sorrel is less exposed.
Albaflora was second in the Musidora at York but was well beaten on the same course at today’s trip, so has questions to answer.
Frankel’s Storm looks an in-and-out performer but has been chasing black type in Group and Listed races, and in fact her form since her debut is two from two in races below the pattern.
I’ll take the Mark Johnston front-runner at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning, with bags of stamina in the pedigree, in a race not to be taken seriously.
COUNTING ON CALCULATION AT 8.8
⭕ 1.40 Doncaster Older horses rarely get a look-in (1-9) against the four-year-olds, and Alfaatik’s York form was boosted by the runner-up’s good second in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. The third was only just touched off by Laafy on the same course.
Can ‘Alfie’ foil a Sleeping Lion plot? Lion won this race last year and it looks as though the double has been his target ever since. Snag is that last year’s form of the race didn’t work out.
The worry about Alfaatik is that the York win came after a long lay-off, and you have to speculate that his gelding op has sorted him long term.
You have the same question mark over Calculation, another gelding of lay-offs, who was the ‘moral’ on his return at Sandown, a good second, giving weight to the winner, Seinesational, who scored again at Goodwood next time.
If Calculation can reproduce that form, 8.8 on BETDAQ this morning is good value. There’s nothing to beat but Alfaatik.
Volcanic Sky has done best over further and is still only 1-9 on turf. Apparate has twice failed to build on his Ascot success of a year or so ago.
BUICK’S CHIEF CHANCE OF THE DAY
⭕ 2.10 Doncaster Musicality outplayed the favourite in a tough race when the July Course was soft towards the end of August.
He’s drifted here under David Egan, who won on Line Of Departure yesterday, given a big write-up by me but not backed for the race at the value 15-2. A punishable offence, Daqman! At least, that’s how it feels afterwards.
Byline easily beat Musicality at these weights at Leicester in August and it may have been the change to soft ground that turned the tables at Newmarket. Far too big at BETDAQ 24.0 on the better surface today.
Sunset Breeze’s typical Sir Mark Prescott sequence came in lower grade. He’s no Revolver but goes up 5lb in future races.
Silver Wokingham winner Chiefofchiefs (William Buick) has done well since, fourth in a 7f handicap at Ascot, and now back slightly in trip. Tasty at 8.4.
Ghalyoon was just touched off at the last meeting on Town Moor, returning after wind-ops; he’s had more of the same it seems.
It’s a worry to be backing such a favourite, and I’ll take the big odds Byline and Chiefofchiefs against him, keeping on the lookout for a back-and-lay situation if one of the pair is punted.
BULLISH ABOUT STEEL’S STAMINA
⭕ 2.40 Doncaster (Flying Childers Stakes) It takes a proper Group horse to win this and we have already seen Sacred and Steel Bull win or go close in the pattern.
Sacred was runner-up to Campanelle in the Queen May so holds the key but her length second to Miss Amulet in the Lowther brings the thunderbolt Frenetic into it.
Frenetic got even closer to Miss Amulet at Naas and was giving 3lb to the winner. Those who were worried that she flashed her tail discovered next time at the Curragh that her character is: I do it my way!
The colt she beat, Chief Little Hawk, ran third to Steel Bull in the Molecomb and subsequently won the Ballyhane at Naas.
Steel Bull was well behind in the Phoenix but we have to qualify that by saying he hit his head on the stalls and broke two teeth.
Officially, it works out at 108 Sacred, 105 Steel Bull, 103 Frenetic. But right into the picture – given 106 – on his defeat of The Lir Jet in the Prix Robert Papin comes Ventura Tormenta, who is well drawn (in stall 3) to lead, which he did that day.
He then ran a stinker (last of 10) in the Phoenix, so are we any further forward? It boils down to this week’s Doncaster disease of ‘ifs and buts’; you takes your pick and you takes you chance.
My verdict is that Steel Bull (BETDAQ 6.9) settles well against the Frenetic dash, also involving Sacred, who gets no further than 5f, could set it up for him.
11.0 SELINO SUITED BY MARATHON
⭕ 3.15 Doncaster (Doncaster Cup) There’s no Stradivarius this year – the 125-rated is going to the Arc – and it seems strange to be talking about one who is 27lb his inferior.
But Revolver, one of those Sir Mark Prescott sequence horses, will steal the TV-camera’s eye after six consecutive victories which started off a rating of, would you believe, just 57 in a class 5 handicap at Pontefract nearly 15 months ago.
Here he is in a Group 2, attempting a mighty leap from his last-day success in a class 4 at Pontefract.
Frankie Dettori won on Red Verdon at Longchamp in July but that was 1m 6f Ed Dunlop’s seven-year-old has been beaten every time when trying a longer trip. Today is 2m 2f.
That also applies to Spanish Mission, whose second in the Henry 11 Stakes at Sandown (2m) was let down by the winner, Dashing Willoughby, who finished nine lengths behind Stradivarius in the 2019 Goodwood Cup.
I shall side with Selino (BETDAQ 11.0), who is bred for this and could reverse Chester form with Spanish Mission over today’s marathon trip.
1.10 Doncaster (win 10)
BET 1pt win FRANKEL’S STORM
1.40 Doncaster (win 20, win 10)
BET 2.5pts win CALCULATION
BET 2pts win ALFAATIK
2.10 Doncaster (win 30)
BET 4pts win CHIEFOFCHIEFS
BET 1.25pts win BYLINE
2.40 Doncaster (win 50 nap)
BULL’S-EYE BET 8.25pts win STEEL BULL
3.15 Doncaster (win 50)
BULL’S-EYE BET 5pts win SELINO
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro.. Or just 10p to win!
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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