THRILLING DAQMAN TREBLE AT 21-1: Daqman tracked down a heart-in-the-mouth treble of more than 21-1 yesterday, including his second winning nap in three days. Like West To The Bridge on Tuesday, ‘given up’ at 15.5, Your Own Story lost the lead yesterday but, 13.5 in running, also came again. Robert Walpole stormed home from stone last!
Thursday: profit on the day 30.00
WON 7-2 YOUR OWN STORY (13.5 in running)
WON 2-1 ROBERT WALPOLE
WON 8-11 FLY TO GLORY (nap)
Tuesday: profit on the day 16.50
WON 11-1 WEST TO THE BRIDGE (15.5 in running)
WON 1-1 ROLLING DYLAN (nap)
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: THE FINAL DAY: Daqman completes his day-by-day stats and facts countdown to Cheltenham by checking out six of the seven races on Gold Cup day; the seventh is a new mares chase. `
🗓️ TOMORROW is Imperial Cup day at Sandown but there will be final Festival previews from Daqman on Sunday and Monday.
FESTIVAL STATS: GOLD CUP DAY
Where do the Cheltenham winners come from? Which are best and worst races for favourites? Where would you logically look for lays? Here are the stats and facts for Gold Cup day at the festival.
It’s your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and a special feature on favourites. Don’t forget the ante–post betting is in full swing on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
One imponderable right up to the first race is the going: the forecast was rain, so ‘soft’ even on the ‘heavy’ side. Yesterday, they thought they might have to water!
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites of 13-2 or shorter in Friday races which show poor results for the market leader. In races 2, 3 and 7, they lost no fewer than 18 times out of 19 (all listed below)
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, next Friday March 18 (Triumph Hurdle) Four-year-olds only. Favourites three out of 11. Outsiders at 10-1, 12-1, 20-1 and 33-1.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3 in 12 seasons). Winners ratings: 155, 142, 155, 140, 141 notional, 120 notional, 147.
* Not a lays race
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Friday (County Hurdle) Favourites: 1-12. Outsiders at 33-1 (twice), 25-1, 20-1 (three).
Age: 5 and 6 (9/12). Weight: no more than 11st 1lb (8/11). Trainers: Dan Skelton (3/5); Willie Mullins (4/10).
Ratings: 138, 138, 158, 139, 146, 137, 129. No horse has won this twice since 1946.
ANTE-POST: West Cork 11.0
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 7-1 jt fav 4th and UR (2016); 5-1 fav 6th (2017), 6-1 fav 16th (2018), 5-1 fav 4th (2019), 11-2 fav WON (2020), 5-1 fav 10th
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Friday (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle) No winning favourite in eight years (33-1 twice and 50-1).
Age 6 and 7 (10 out of 12). Seven out of 15 winners had raced at Cheltenham before: 10 out of 15 had scored in a Graded race, and 12 out of 15 had won at around 3m.
Ratings: 140, 152, 143, 143, 146 notional, 152, 144.
ANTE-POST: Whatdeawant 15.0
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished: 7-2 fav PU (2016), 9-4 fav 5th, 11-4 fav 4th; 4-1 fav 2nd; 4-1 fav 4th; 7-2 fav 4th.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Friday (Gold Cup) Three favourites have won in the decade and 8/10 were 9-1 or shorter at SP. The last seven winners had won two of their last three races, still standing.
Age, 7, 8 and 9 (11/12). Trainers: Willie Mullins (2) missed a hat-trick last year when his favourite was 3rd; Nicky Henderson (2). Ratings: 152, 166, 175, 167, 166, 164, 175, 164.
There had been Graded-race wins for all of the last 15 (Grade-1 11), and 15 out of 15 had also raced at Cheltenham before; 14 out of 15 had won at 3m or further, and 15 out of 15 had won at least two chases.
* Not a lays race
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Friday (Challenge Cup hunters’ chase) Three favourites have won in the last six seasons but others include 66-1 and 25-1. Last seven winners all aged 10 or 11.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (2), Enda Bolger (2). Won over at least 3m (9/11).
ANTE-POST: Cat Tiger 17.0, Pont Aven 11.0
* Not a lays race
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Friday (Mares’ Chase) New race last year. ANTE-POST: Vienna Court 15.0
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham Friday (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle) Favourites: just one win 12 years ago (eight out of nine 5-1 to 16-1 SP). Ages: 5 and 6 (10 out of 12). Weight: 11st 5lb and above (8/10)
Trainers: W Mullins (5), P. Nicholls (2). Ratings: 135, 139, 138, 144, 145, 145, 142.
LAYS LOGIC: Favourites finished 9-4 fav 7th (2016), 9-2 fav 8th (2017), 13-2 fav 12th (2018); 7-2 fav 2nd (2019); 4-1 fav 12th (2020), 4-1 10th (2021).
MORNING BET ON SPIRIT
⭕ 1.15 Exeter today: Delete New Age Dawning’s first run back after 1,001 nights off and you have form figures of 21211. He likes deep ground and just might be good enough.
But Morning Spirit quickly recovered from his first-chase fall and wasn’t beaten far in a big field on today’s course; went second in the final strides trying to give 11lb to the winner, who scored again next time when he had Eva’s Oskar in fourth (lost shoe).
Dr Kananga has been caned – up a total of 22lb – after back-to-back wins at Chepstow and Sandown, but the stable remains confident.
El Paso Wood is more than a stone higher than for his last success. Valsheda won the 1.45 last year but Nicky Henderson has hit a blank spot (0-18) in the last couple of weeks (‘nothing to worry about’, he claims).
BETDAQ value 6.2 Morning Spirit
TRELAWNE TRYING AGAIN
⭕ 1.45 Exeter It’s spot-on the right move by Kim Bailey to bring Trelawne back to Exeter on similar ground but up nearly 5f in trip, as recommended by his pedigree.
It’s not the first race (however impressive) but the second that counts with young horses. I remember one winning for me but her second run she broke out into a shiver-sweat in the paddock and looked like an advert for washing-powder; she’d ‘remembered.’
Trewlawne has nothing to forget. His first run first win saw him stride well clear here and score eased down; no pain and all gain.
Blackjack Magic is up 11lb for his Chepstow win. It’s not a handicap today but he still has to give weight all round under the conditions of the race.
Flemenstide could get involved in first-time cheekpieces but this is all part of the education of a future staying chaser, related down the dam’s side to Master Minded.
I’ll have my pound on Trelawne. I hope he’s half as good as Ascot Stakes winner Trelawney, trained by George Todd, one of the master minds of Manton.
HAVE THIS ROUND ON ME
⭕ 2.40 Leicester The Edgar Wallace was one of my favourite watering-holes in Fleet Street. The eponymous Kim Bailey gelding has also become a pal of mine, with back-to–back wins for Daqman on autumn ground.
So his chance is a bit problematic, though his sire, Flemensfirth, got Jumps winners on all sorts of surfaces, while his dam’s sire, Bob’s Return, won the Doncaster St Leger on soft.
Backing horses in England is all the trickier when you are nervous about what kind of weather it will be, sometimes with the going at differing shades of winter grey right up to the ‘off.’
Jacamar has done well enough in higher grades to be a threat here, whereas Cut The Mustard is now 10 and I’m not sure she can follow up her CD win of three weeks back.
Torigni’s course win was on firm and the grey Yccs Portocervo has won his chases only at Uttoxeter and only on good ground.
The Edgar Wallace (BETDAQ 2.72) goes well fresh and has won a bumper, a hurdle and a chase, as if he takes everything in his stride.
1.15 Exeter (win 20)
BET 4pts win MORNING SPIRIT
1.45 Exeter (win-10 nap)
BET 12pts win TRELAWNE
2.40 Leicester (win 10)
BET 5.5pts win THE EDGAR WALLACE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.